It's the last weekend before Christmas - but there's no let up in
the Premier League schedule!

There are 9 more games this weekend, plus a full set of games on
Boxing Day AND the 28th December. I'll be emailing you the standout
stats and our best bets on all those games. But for today, we're
concentrating on this weekend's games...

I've got 4 bets for you - starting with the live game on Saturday
evening...

West Ham Utd v Aston Villa

Sat 20th Dec, 5.30pm
Live on Setanta Sports 1
Ref: M.Halsey

League positions: West Ham 16th - Aston Villa 4th

Match odds: West Ham 2/1 - Draw 12/5 - Aston Villa 11/8

This looks a good match-up for a corners bet...

Corners

West Ham have a high 88% strike rate for 'Over 11 Corners' games at
Upton Park - 7 out of 8 games have had 12 or more corners in them.

Half of Aston Villa's away games (4 out of 8) been 'Over 11
Corners' - with 1 settled on 'Exactly 11.'

Both teams' have high average totals per game:

West Ham - Home:
Corners For = 6.6
Corners Against = 6.6
Total = 13.2

Aston Villa - Away:
Corners For = 5.5
Corners Against = 6.9
Total = 12.4

Both games between West Ham and Villa went 'Over 11 Corners' last
season. There were 12 corners in the game at Villa Park - and 15 at
Upton Park.

The recent form is good too - 4 out of West Ham's last 5 Premier
League games have gone 'Over 11 Corners. And so have 4 out of 5 for
Villa. Back 'Over 11 Corners' for Saturday night's game.

Fulham v Middlesbrough

Sat 29th Dec, 3pm
Ref: K.Stroud

League positions: Fulham 10th - Middlesbrough 12th

Match odds: Fulham 6/5 - Draw 9/4 - Middlesbrough 5/2

Middlesbrough have got a 100% corners record this season...

Corner Handicap

Fulham have won the most corners in over half their home games so
far - 5 out of 8 games.

Middlesbrough have played 8 away games so far - and haven't won the
most corners in ANY of them. That's a 100% record for bets on
Middlesbrough's opponents to 'Win the Most Corners.'

Fulham are averaging 2 corners more than their opponents per game,
while Middlesbrough are conceding 4 corners per game more than they
win.

Here are both teams' averages so far this season:

Fulham - Home:
Corners For = 6.3
Corners Against = 4.1

Middlesbrough - Away:
Corners For = 3.4
Corners Against = 8.6

This game isn't live on TV, so only a couple of bookies will be
offering corners bets. However, this game looks a good opportunity
to bet against a team that are yet to 'out-corner' anyone on the
road - back Fulham on the 'Corner Handicap'.

Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth

Sat 20th Dec, 3pm
Ref: M.Atkinson

League positions: Bolton 11th - Portsmouth 8th

Match odds: Bolton 6/5 - Draw 9/4 - Portsmouth 5/2

Bolton and Portsmouth look a good match-up for a 'Booking Points'
bet...

Cards and Booking Points

Although they don't have much of a reputation as a 'clean' side,
Bolton's stats actually show they are a good team for a 'low
Bookings' bet.

The bookies usually let you bet Over or Under '3.5 Cards' (or '35
Bookings Points') - so far this season 5 of Bolton's 8 home games
have gone 'Under'.

Last season's results also highlight Bolton as a 'clean' side - 74%
of their games at the Reebok Stadium in 2007/8 had 3 or less yellow
cards (14 out of 19 games).

Portsmouth had a 58% strike rate for 'Under 3.5 Cards' or 'Under 35
Booking Points' bets last season - 11 out of 19 games. So far this
season the figure is much higher...

7 out of 8 Portsmouth away games have gone 'Under' this season - an
88% strike rate.

Here are both teams' Booking Points averages for the season so far:

Bolton - Home:
Booking Pts For = 15.0
Booking Pts Against = 16.25
Total = 31.25

Portsmouth - Away:
Booking Pts For = 15.63
Booking Pts Against = 6.25
Total = 21.88

Both the games between Bolton and Portsmouth went 'Under 3.5 Cards'
last season - there were 2 yellow cards (20 Bookings Points) in
each game.

The referee for Saturday's game, Martin Atkinson, also has a good
record for 'low' Booking Points games - 8 of the 11 Premier League
games he has refereed this season have seen 3 or less yellow cards
shown. That's 73%.

There are no other markets up at the time of writing - but check
with Coral and Partybets for 'Booking Points' bets on Bolton v
Portsmouth.

And last but not least - a look at the live game on Monday night...

Everton v Chelsea

Mon 22nd Dec, 8pm
Live on Setanta Sports 1
Ref: P.Dowd

League positions: Everton 7th - Chelsea 2nd

Match odds: Everton 9/2 - Draw 5/2 - Chelsea 8/11

This game pitches one of the worst home records in the Premier
League against the best away record...

Match Result

Only 19th placed Blackburn have picked up less points at home than
Everton this season. Everton have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 4.

Chelsea have by far the best away record in the Premier League.
They've got a 100% 'win' record - played 8 and won 8. And they've
won 7 of those games without conceding a goal.

Chelsea's away goals stats are impressive too. They've scored the
most goals and conceded the least - 21 Goals For and just 1 Goal
Against.

Chelsea also had the best defensive record last season - conceding
only 13 goals in 19 away games. They won more away games than any
one else (13) - and won 11 away games without conceding a goal (won
'To Nil').

Goals averages 2008/9 to date:

Everton - Home
Goals For = 1.1
Goals Against = 1.9

Chelsea - Away
Goals For = 2.6
Goals Against = 0.1

The stats point to several options for this game...

• Chelsea are 8/11 (1.73) to 'Win'
  
• Chelsea are 6/5 (2.20) to keep a 'Clean Sheet'
  
• It's 7/4 (2.75) that Chelsea 'Win To Nil'

For better value odds, Chelsea's away 'Correct Score' record is
well worth considering here too...

Last season, Chelsea won 5 games '1-0' and 5 games '2-0'. If you'd
backed BOTH those 'Correct Scores' in ALL of Chelsea's 19 away
games in 2007/8 (at odds of 6/1 and 7/1), you'd have doubled your
money on the season.

So far this season, Chelsea are heading the same way. They've won
'1-0' once - and they've won 3 games '2-0.' Backing both bets for
all 8 Chelsea away games, you'd have doubled your money on the
season to date.

• Chelsea are 6/1 (7.00) to beat Everton '1-0'
  
• Chelsea are 7/1 (8.00) to win '2-0'

Chelsea won this fixture 1-0 last season. On Monday night, Everton
will be without top scorer Yakubu - who is injured. There are also
injury doubts over striker Louis Saha.

Our main bet on this game is for Chelsea to win at 8/11. And for
smaller stakes, we'll also be looking to cash-in on Chelsea's
excellent defensive record by covering both the 1-0 and 2-0 Chelsea
'Correct Scores'...

Also - for smaller stakes, considering backing both the 1-0 and 2-0
Chelsea 'Correct Scores'...

Chelsea to win '1-0' is 6/1 (7.00) with Stan James, Bet365,
Betdirect and Skybet. Chelsea to win '2-0' is 7/1 (8.00) with
Sportingbet, or 13/2 (7.50) with Bet365 and Paddy Power.

You can find the best odds on the 'Correct Score' market for this
game here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

Your bets for the weekend...

Here's a summary of our 'Football Betting Data' (FBD) bets for this
weekend:

FBD says:

• West Ham v Aston Villa - 'Over 11 Corners'

FBD says:

• Fulham v Middlesbrough - Fulham '-1 Asian Handicap Corners'

FBD says:

• Bolton v Portsmouth - 'Under 3.5 Cards'

FBD says:

• Everton v Chelsea - Chelsea to win

And our 'big odds' choice for the weekend...

As mentioned above, we're looking at 2 'Correct Scores' - Chelsea
to win 1-0 @ 6/1 and 2-0 @ 7/1.

Also - in the quest for 'big odds'...

Roll up roll up...

All 4 of our main bets are available with Bet365 this weekend:

West Ham v Villa 'Over 12 Asian Total Corners'
Fulham '-1 Asian Handicap Corners'
Bolton v Portsmouth 'Under 3.5 Cards'
Chelsea to win

If you were to place all 4 of them in an accumulator bet, you can
get odds of just over 9/1.

Find the best odds

You can find the best odds on all your Premier League bets at our
odds comparison website:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

Good luck with all your bets this weekend! I'll write to you again
on Monday with our latest results, and a look at the 'festive
fixture list'...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

Find the Best Odds...

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