Happy New Year!

We ended 2008 with a winner when Aston Villa beat Hull last Tuesday
- giving us a 3 out of 4 strike rate from your 'bonus' Christmas
email.

Now we're looking to get 2009 off to a winning start. There are 10
Premier League games this weekend, and I've got bets on 3 of them
for you...

Everton v Hull

Sat 10th Jan, 3pm
Ref: M.Atkinson

League positions: Everton 6th - Hull 8th

Match odds: Everton 4/6 - Draw 11/4 - Hull 5/1

The stats highlight 2 bets in this game - and the chance of a 2/1
'double'...

Match Result

Despite the league positions above, the Premier League's 'Form
Guide' - that takes into account the last 6 games - actually places
Everton up in 4th and Hull down in 17th.

Everton's home record doesn't make great reading - won 2, drawn 4
and lost 4. But that's largely due to a slow start to the season.
Since August they've only lost at home to Liverpool and Aston Villa
- teams that are both flying high in the league.

Everton have kept 4 'Clean Sheet's in a row. That run includes a 0-
0 draw against Chelsea - and wins against Man City, Sunderland and
Middlesbrough.

Hull's season has been the opposite to Everton's so far - they
started well but have faded since. Hull's away record is won 4,
drawn 4 and lost 2. But they haven't won a game - home OR away -
since October...

After losing to Aston Villa last week, Hull have now gone 11 games
without a win.

The Corner stats also point to a bet in this game...

Corners

Everton have been a strong corner winner at home so far this season
- while Hull have conceded an average of over 4 corners per game
more than they have won.

• Everton have won the most corners in 70% of their home games
  (7 out of 10 games)

• Hull have only won the most corners in 1 of their 10 away
  games (10%)

Here are both teams' averages:

Everton - Home 2008/9
Corners For = 6.4
Corners Against = 4.6 
 
Hull - Away 2008/9
Corners For = 4.0
Corners Against = 8.9

This game isn't live on Sky TV, so bets on the 'Corner Handicap'
market won't be widely available. However, Bet365 have a market
up...

And if you're looking to boost your odds...

Double up at 2/1

Both our Everton bets are available with Bet365 - if you put them
in a 'double' you'll get odds of just over 2/1 (3.00+).

Aston Villa v West Brom

Sat 10th Jan, 12.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Riley

This 'Midlands derby' sees 4th place Aston Villa take on the
Premier League's bottom side, West Brom.

Corners

These two might be at different ends of the table - but they've got
a lot in common when you look at their Corners stats...

• 7 out of 10 (70%) Aston Villa home games have gone 'Over 11
  Corners' this season.

• 8 out of 10 (80%) West Brom away games have gone 'Over 11
  Corners' this season.

Here are both teams' Corner averages so far this season:

Aston Villa - Home 2008/9
Corners For = 7.1
Corners Against = 5.1
Total Average = 12.2

West Brom - Away 2008/9
Corners For = 5.8
Corners Against = 6.9
Total Average = 12.7

Overall, 65% of Villa games (home AND away) have paid out a winner
on 'Over 11 Corners' bets this season - 13 out of 20 games.

And 75% of all West Brom's games have gone 'Over 11 Corners' -
that's 15 out of 20 games.

Both teams' recent form is good too...

Villa's last 6 games in a row have been 'Over 11 Corners.' And 5 of
West Brom's last 6 games have been 'Over 11.'

Portsmouth v Man City

Sat 10th Jan, 3pm
Ref: M.Dean

When these two played each other in September Man City won 6-0...

Goals

Both teams' stats suggest another high-scoring game this weekend -
here are their averages:

Portsmouth - Home 2008/9
Goals For = 14
Goals Against = 17
TOTAL = 3.1 goals per game

Man City - Away 2008/9
Goals For = 14
Goals Against = 19
TOTAL = 3.3 goals per game

Both teams have a 70% strike rate for 'Over 2.5 Goals' games this
season...

• 7 out of 10 Portsmouth home games have been 'Over 2.5 Goals'

• 7 out of 10 Man City away games have also been 'Over 2.5
  Goals'

If you'd bet on 'Over 2.5 Goals' in every Premier League game for
both teams this season, you'd have backed many more winners than
losers...

There have been 3 or more goals scored in 60% of all Portsmouth's
games, home and away (12 out of 20 games).

And 15 out of 20 Man City's games have seen 3 or more goals scored
- a 75% strike rate for 'Over 2.5 Goals' bets.

The recent form supports these stats, too. Portsmouth's last 5 home
games in a row have gone 'Over 2.5' - and so have 3 of Man City's
last 5 away games.

Good luck with your first Premier League bets of the year!

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

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