Our extra midweek email paid off on Wednesday night...

There were 3 yellow cards in Man Utd's 1-0 win over Wigan, giving
us a winning bet on 'Under 35.5 Booking Points' or 'Under 3.5
Cards.'

There are 10 more Premier League games between now and Monday night
- here are the top bets for the weekend...

Bolton v Man Utd

Sat 17th Jan, 3pm
Ref: A.Marriner

League positions: Bolton 12th - Man Utd 2nd

Match odds: Bolton 9/1 - Draw 3/1 - Man Utd 4/9

Man Utd will go top of the league if they beat Bolton. They are
already top of the Premier League's 'Form Guide' table after
winning 5 and drawing one of their last 6 games.

Bolton are 17th on the 'Form Guide' chart - they've lost 5 and won
just one of their last 6 games.

Man Utd are short odds-on for an away win at 4/9 - but the Goals
and Correct Score markets look to offer better value...

Goals

The Over and Under '2.5' Goals stats suggest a 'low-scoring' game
here.

• 70% of Bolton's home games have gone 'Under 2.5 Goals' (7 out
  of 10 games)
• And 80% of Man Utd's away games have been 'Under 2.5 Goals'
  (8 out of 10)

Both teams' Total Goals averages also come out well under 3 goals:

Bolton - Home 2008/9
Total Goals For = 8
Total Goals Against = 11
TOTAL average = 1.9 goals per game

Man Utd - Away 2008/9
Total Goals For = 9
Total Goals Against = 6
TOTAL average = 1.5 goals per game

5 of Bolton's last 6 home games have been 'Under 2.5 Goals' - and
that includes visits by Man Utd's fellow title chasers Liverpool
and Chelsea (lost both games 2-0).

While 5 out of Man Utd's last 6 away games have also been 'Under
2.5 Goals.'

'Under 2.5 Goals' is available at 5/6 (1.83) with several bookies.

Clean Sheets

Bolton have only stopped 3 teams from scoring at the Reebok Stadium
this season - Man City, West Brom and Blackburn. That's 3 'Clean
Sheets' out of 10 home games.

Man Utd have kept 6 'Clean Sheets' from 10 away games. And they are
currently on a run of 9 'Clean Sheets' in a row, home and away. If
Man Utd stop Bolton scoring on Saturday they will equal Chelsea's
Premier League record of 10 consecutive 'Clean Sheets.'

Man Utd are just 1/12 (1.08) to score 1 or more goals against
Bolton - and the Man Utd 'Clean Sheet' is 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy
Power.

To Win To Nil

Bolton have been beaten 5 times at home so far - and they've lost 4
of those games without scoring a goal.

Man Utd have won 4 away games this season - and all 4 of them were
won 'To Nil.' In fact, 12 of their 13 Premier League wins (92%)
this season have been achieved whilst keeping a 'Clean Sheet.'

Last season 80% of Man Utd's away win were won 'To Nil' ( 8 out of
10 away wins).

Man Utd 'To Win To Nil' is 11/8 (2.37) with Betfred. And the same
bet -but called 'Man Utd To Win With A Clean Sheet' - is also 11/8
with Boylesports.

Correct Scores

Taking into account all the above data - both team's low Goals
stats and Man Utd's 'Clean Sheet' and 'Win To Nil' records - a
couple of 'Correct Score' bets could appeal at around 6/1...

All 4 of Man Utd's away wins this season have been by a 1-0 or 2-0
'Correct Score.'

And 6 out of 10 Man Utd away wins last season were won wither 1-0
or 2-0.

Bolton have been beaten 1-0 or 2-0 in 4 of the 5 home games that
they've lost so far.

Ladbrokes are offering the best prices on these 'Correct Scores' -
1-0 Man Utd and 2-0 Man Utd are both available at 6/1 (7.00).

Summary...

The best bet on Man Utd v Bolton is 'Under 2.5 Goals.'

But for bigger odds, covering the Man Utd 1-0 and 2-0 'Correct
Scores' at around 6/1 each also looks a decent option, for sensible
stakes.

And for the best odds on the 'Correct Score' market, click here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

West Brom v Middlesbrough

Sat 17th Jan, 3pm
Ref: M.Halsey

League positions: West Brom 20th - Middlesbrough 16th

Match odds: West Brom 7/5 - Draw 12/5 - Middlesbrough 2/1

These two match-up strongly in one of the Goals categories...

Goals

The most common Goals bets are Over or Under '2.5 Goals' - but the
bookies also let you bet on a whole variety of Total Goals and Goal
Brackets markets...

West Brom and Middlesbrough are the Premier League's highest rated
teams for '2-3 goals' games:

• 7 out of 10 (70%) West Brom home games have had 2 or 3 goals
• 8 out of 10 (80%) Middlesbrough away games have had 2 or 3
  goals

Those high '2-3 Goals' stats are supported by both teams' Total
Goals figures:

West Brom - Home 2008/9
Total Goals For = 13
Total Goals Against = 16 
TOTAL average = 2.9 goals per game

Middlesbrough - Away 2008/9
Goals For = 8
Goals Against = 15
TOTAL average = 2.3 goals per game

The recent form of both teams - home and away - also points to '2
or 3 Goals' being scored again in Saturday's game.

West Brom - 5 of their last 6 games have had 2 or 3 goals.

Middlesbrough - 4 of their last 6 games have had 2 or 3 goals.

The '2-3 Goals' bracket covers you for several score-lines - 2-0,
2-1 or 3-0 to either team as well as the 1-1 draw - and can be
backed at around 10/11 with a handful of the top bookies.

'West Brom at home' and 'Middlesbrough away' are the Premier
League's top-rated teams for '2-3 Goals' bets - paying out a winner
in 75% of their home / away games so far this season.

Finding this bet on the bookies' websites...

You'll find '2-3 Goals' in the 'Goal Crazy' market at Ladbrokes,
while Paddy Power and Bet365 call it 'Number of Goals' and Blue
Square call it 'Total Goals.'

And now for a look at the game at Fratton Park on Sunday afternoon
- live on Sky Sports...

Tottenham v Portsmouth

Sun 18th Jan, 4pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Riley

League positions: Tottenham 18th - Portsmouth 14th

Match odds: Tottenham 8/11 - Draw 13/5 - Portsmouth 9/2

The Cards and Bookings Points stats look to match-up well here...

Cards and Booking Points

When it comes to picking up the 'First Card' or the 'Most Booking
Points' in a game, Portsmouth have much higher averages than
Tottenham.

• In 70% of Tottenham's home games, their opponents have got
  the 'Most Bookings' (7 out of 10 games)
• Portsmouth have picked up the 'Most Bookings' in 70% of their
  away games (7 out of 10)
• Tottenham's opponent has been shown the 'First Card' in 70%
  of games at White Hart Lane
• A Portsmouth player has been shown the 'First Card' in 80% of
  their away games

The Booking Points averages for both teams also point to the away
team getting the most attention from the referee...

Tottenham - Home 2008/9
Booking Pts For = 13.0
Booking Pts Against = 28.0

Portsmouth - Away 2008/9
Booking Pts For = 14.5
Booking Pts Against = 6.0

Those figures show that Tottenham, on average, get over 10 pts (eg.
one yellow card) less than their opponent per home game. And that
Portsmouth average over 10 pts more than their opponent per away
game.

Both teams' recent results support their overall stats for the
season, too.

• Portsmouth have got the 'First Card' in 5 of their last 6
  Premier League games
• In Tottenham's last 6 games in all competitions, their
  opponent has got the 'First Card' 4 times, and the 'Most Booking
  Points' 4 times

Bets are available in both markets for this game - with 'Most
Bookings Points' available at the biggest price. That option also
takes preference as it covers the entire game.

Booking Points explained...

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Most one player can get in a game (eg. 2 yellows resulting in a red) = 35 pts.

Good luck with all your Premier League bets this weekend! I'll
write to you again on Monday with all the results, and news of your
new Football Betting Data members-only website...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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