It was a good weekend for us, with all 4 of our bets winning on
Saturday...
We had 2 winners from the Man Utd v Everton game, a 'Corner
Handicap' winner on Arsenal and a 'First Goal Time' payout on
Stoke.
A tale of two refs...
Going into injury time in Sunday's Liverpool v Chelsea game, we
were on course for a '5 out of 6' weekend overall. Until ref Mike
Riley dished out a yellow card to Liverpool's Arvaro Arbeloa in the
95th minute, that is.
That booking levelled the Cards at 4 each for Liverpool and
Chelsea, meaning our quoted 'Team To Receive The Most Cards' bet
was settled as a 'tie' with Ladbrokes.
However, there was better news for anyone that backed Chelsea at
5/6 with William Hill, Blue Square or 888 Sport. Those bookies
settle their bookings bets on the actual 'Booking Points' - and as
the figures below show, Frank Lampard's straight red card meant
Chelsea were the team with the 'Most Booking Points.' (Those
bookies didn't have their markets up in time for our Friday email,
but they were up at the weekend.)
Liverpool:
4 Yellow Cards = 40 Booking Points
Liverpool Total = 40 Booking Points
Chelsea:
3 Yellow Cards = 30 Booking Points
1 Red Card = 25 Booking Points
Chelsea Total = 55 Booking Points
That Ladbrokes bet goes down as a 'near miss' for us. But we had
better luck with the referee on Saturday, with Mark Halsey not
giving out ANY cards - yellow, red or otherwise! - in the Man Utd v
Everton game.
Halsey's empty notebook landed any 'Under' bet on any of the
bookies' 'Total Cards' or 'Booking Points' markets in that game.
Here are the full results...
Last week's results - 4 out of 6 winners
Stoke 1 Man City 0
First Goal Time: 45 mins
FBD said:
- 'Time Of The First Goal - After 27th Minute' @ Evens - WON
James Beattie's goal deep in 1st Half injury time did the business
for us here.
Man Utd 1 Everton 0
First Goal Time: 44 mins
Total Cards = 0
Total Booking Points = 0
FBD said:
- 'Time Of The First Goal - After 27th Minute' @ Evens or 10/11
- WON
Cristiano Ronaldo's 44th minute penalty was the only goal of the
game. That strike was also good news for our 3/1 bet from last
week, on Ronaldo to be the Premier League 'Top Scorer.' He's now
down to 2/1 with the bookies.
FBD said:
- 'Under 3.5 Cards' @ 1/2 - WON
Both teams' have got strong 'low bookings' stats this season - and
ref Mark Halsey has now been involved in 14 out of 15 Premier
League games that have gone 'Under 3.5 Cards' or 'Under 35.5
Booking Points.' That's a phenomenal 93% record for Mr Halsey.
Arsenal 0 West Ham 0
Arsenal Corners = 13
West Ham Corners = 3
FBD said:
- Arsenal '-3 Corner Handicap' @ 5/6 - WON
Arsenal won 10 corners more than West Ham here, steam-rolling the
bookies' '-3 Corner Handicap.' Take away that handicap and the
corners score was still 10-3 in Arsenal's favour.
Liverpool 2 Chelsea 0
Total Booking Points = 95
Cards:
Liverpool = 4 yellows
Chelsea = 3 yellows, 1 red
FBD said:
- 'Under 50 Booking Points' @ 13/10 - LOST
FBD said:
- 'Chelsea to get the Most Bookings' @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes -
LOST
As discussed above, a late, late yellow card out meant it was '4
cards all' on the Ladbrokes 'Team To Receive The Most Cards' bet.
The total Booking Points figure went well over 50 in the end. The
commentators on the radio were calling the ref 'fussy Mike Riley'
before the 1st Half had even finished. Many people were calling him
many other names after he sent off Frank Lampard in the 2nd Half.
A 70% strike rate...
It was another successful weekend for us. Following our quoted bets
to the letter, you would've bagged 4 out of 6 winners from Friday's
email. That's a good strike rate by any measure - and you'll have
done even better if you had Chelsea to get the 'Most Booking
Points' (as opposed to 'Chelsea Most Cards').
We're running at a 70% strike rate since Christmas (with 16 of our
last 23 bets winning). I'll be sending you our best bets again this
weekend - lookout for your email on Friday.
P.S
Remember you can follow all our emails on the 'Latest Tips' and
'Results Archive' pages at our new website. And you can use the
'Head-2-Head' and 'Team Data' pages to give you an at-a-glance
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League...
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Wanted: Your Comments
If you've been using the stats to pick out winners, or if you
cashed-in on our recommended bets at the weekend - or have any
feedback at all for us on the site or the weekly emails - drop me a
line at:
footballbettingdata@oxonpress.com
It's always good to hear from you.
If the snow lets up, there'll be FA Cup replays on Tuesday and
Wednesday night this week. Followed by a full round of Premier
League games at the weekend. I'll write to you on Friday with our
next set of bets...
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Football Betting Data
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