
The weekend is here again and the stats have highlighted bets in
two of the Premier League's live games...
Liverpool travel to West Ham on Saturday evening (live on Setanta)
- and the Manchester derby is live on Sky Sports on Sunday
lunchtime.
See below for our recommended bets for the weekend. And remember to
check out the Head-2-Head page on our website for the best stats
match-ups for all 10 Premier League fixtures:
Log In at: www.FootballBettingData.co.uk
With your current Password: ******
Let's start at Upton Park...
West Ham v Liverpool
Sat 9th May, 5.30pm
Live on Setanta Sports 1
Ref: A.Wiley
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Match odds:
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West Ham
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Draw
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Liverpool
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11/2
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3/1
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4/7
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Liverpool have a great 'corners' record against West Ham...
Corners
Liverpool have been a strong corner winner, home and away, all
season long. They have won at least 2 corners more than their
opponent in 4 of their last 5 away games - and they were only out-
cornered in that period by top-of-the-table Man Utd.
Meanwhile, West Ham have only managed to win the most corners once
in their last 5 games at Upton Park.
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West Ham have failed to win the most corners in 59% of their
home games this season
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Liverpool have won the most corners in 58% of away games
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KEY DATA:
When Liverpool drew 0-0 with West Ham earlier this season, they won
a whopping 12 corners more than them (17-5).
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In the game at Upton Park last season, Liverpool won the corner
count 6-4. And in the 2007/8 game at Anfield, the Reds posted
another giant corner score - 16-3.
West Ham have been 'out-cornered' in all their home games against
the Premier League's 'Big 4' teams so far this season:
West Ham 4 corners, Arsenal 9
West Ham 3 corners, Chelsea 5
West Ham 5 corners, Man Utd 11
In the above fixtures, the away team won at least 2 corners more
than West Ham...
Liverpool are available with a '-0.5 Corner Handicap' this weekend
- a bet that wins if they win just 1 corner more than West Ham. The
stats show they are more than capable of doing that.
Blackburn v Portsmouth
Sat 9th May, 3pm
Ref: M.Riley
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Match odds:
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Blackburn
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Draw
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Portsmouth
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Evens
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12/5
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3/1
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Both teams have got identical 'Over and Under' Booking Points
records, making this game a good match-up...
Cards and Booking Points
Blackburn have played 17 games at Ewood Park this season and 12 of
them have paid out a winner on Under 3.5 Cards and Under 35.5
Booking Points bets. Portsmouth's away record is the same.
· 70.6% of Blackburn home games have gone 'Under'
· 70.6% of Portsmouth away games have also gone 'Under'
Both teams' games are averaging less than 35 Booking Points (or 3.5
Cards) per game, with Blackburn home games at 32.4 pts and
Portsmouth away games a shade lower at 25.5 pts.
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KEY DATA:
When Portsmouth played Blackburn earlier in the season, there was
just one yellow card in the game (10 Booking Points).
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For this weekend's game, you can bet on there being Under 4.5 Cards
in the game...
It looks like the bookies have set the line higher than the normal
'3.5 Cards' for this one because the Referee is Mike Riley. He has
the highest 'Cards per game' average in the Premier League this
season, at 4.45.
However, 4 of Riley's last 5 games would've paid out a winner on
Under 4.5 Cards bets...
And that same bet would also have given you a full house of winners
in Blackburn's last 5 home games - and 4 out of 5 winners in
Portsmouth's recent away games. That's a pretty solid record.
Also available...
'Asian Total Cards - Under 4' at bigger odds of 19/20 (1.95) with
Bet365 pays out if there are 3 or less Cards in the game, and gives
you your money back if there are exactly 4.
Bet365's Cards system works like this:
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Most one player can get in a game = 3 Cards
Man Utd v Man City
Sun 10th May, 1.30pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: C.Foy
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Match odds:
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Man Utd
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Draw
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Man City
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4/11
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7/2
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8/1
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Man Utd have won 9 of their last 10 home games, while Man City have
picked up just one win in their last 15 away games. Man Utd are
just 4/11 (1.36) to win - but better value can be found using the
Corners stats...
Corners
The Head-2-Head stats on our website show that Man Utd average
'+4.9 Corners' at home - meaning they win over 4 corners more than
opponents per game at Old Trafford.
That figure fits almost exactly with their recent form - Man Utd
have won at least 4 corners more than their opponent in 4 of their
last 5 home games.
While Man City have been 'out-cornered' in 4 of their last 5 away
fixtures.
· Man Utd have won the most corners in 82% of games at Old
Trafford this season
· Man City have only won the most corners in 29% of their away
games
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KEY DATA:
When Man City lost 1-0 to Man Utd earlier in the season, City won 3
corners and Man Utd won 8.
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It's quite common for the bookies to give Man Utd a big '-4' or '-5
Corner Handicap' to overcome in their home games...
But right now you can back them with a '-2.5 Corner Handicap' - a
bet that requires Man Utd to win 3 or more corners more than Man
City. That would've paid out a winner in 76% of all Man Utd's home
games this season.
Also available...
Man Utd '-3 Corner Handicap' is Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power. That
wins if they win at least 4 corners more than Man City. Check here
for other Corner Handicap bets:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/
Double up for bigger profits this weekend
Both those Liverpool and Man Utd 'Corner Handicap' bets are
available at 8/11 with William Hill...
- A double on Liverpool '-0.5 Corner Handicap' AND Man Utd '-
2.5 Corner Handicap' pays out at just under 2/1 (around 2.98).
Check here for the best odds on all Premier League markets this
weekend:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/
I'll write to you again on Monday with the results from the weekend
- and a look at Monday night's big relegation clash between
Newcastle and Middlesbrough...
Good luck,
Matt Nesbitt
Football Betting Data
Find the Best Odds...
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