Look to profit from some 'R' and 'R' tonight

Wed 13 May 2009

It's Man Utd's 'game in hand' tonight - they travel to Wigan
knowing a win will take them to within a point of the league
title...

After tonight's game every team in the Premier League will have
played 36 games - and have 2 more to play. Some games are going to
be 'dead rubbers' with teams having little to play for - while
others will be real 'formbook out the window' scraps!

But between those two extremes there are going to be games where
the 'situation' and the stats match-up just right for a bet. Your
weekly Football Betting Data website and emails will point you in
the right direction for every fixture.

Monday night's result - Newcastle 3 Middlesbrough 1

On Monday night we highlighted the 'Draw' at 13/5 in the Newcastle
v Middlesbrough game. That bet was shaping up well with the score
level at 1-1 after 70 minutes - but Newcastle struck late on with 2
goals, giving them a 3-1 victory.

FBD said:
'Draw' @ 13/5 - LOST

Tonight's game...

Tonight's game is live on Sky Sports, the bookies have got a full
range of Goals, Corners and Booking Points bets up - and our data
has highlighted several promising opportunities...

Wigan v Man Utd

TONIGHT - Wed 13th May, 8pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: R.Styles

League positions: Wigan 11th  Man Utd 1st

Match Result

Recent Form:

Wigan - Home - DLWLD          Man Utd - Away - WWLWW

Wigan have won just one of their last 5 games at the JJB Stadium,
while Man Utd have won 4 of their last 5 away - along with
Liverpool, that's the best current away record in the Premier
League.

Wigan are 11th in the table and safe from relegation. But their
form has slumped recently. They haven't won any of their last 5
games, and the Premier League's 'Form Guide' table places them
second-bottom, down in 19th place (the bottom club in that chart
are Hull - the last team that Wigan beat).

Man Utd are top of the league and top of the 'Form Guide' table,
too - having won their last 6 games in a row. The league leaders
are short odds-on to win at just 1/3 (1.33) here. But better value
can be found by looking at the Goals stats...

• Wigan are the Premier League's worst home scorers - with just
  15 Goals For from 17 games

Along with Chelsea, Man Utd have the best away defensive record -
just 10 Goals Against.

In their last 5 games, Wigan have scored 2 goals and conceded 13.
In the same period Man Utd have scored 13 goals and conceded 3.

·         80% of Wigan's home defeats have been 'To Nil'

·         80% of Man Utd's away wins have been 'To Nil'

Wigan have lost 5 times at home this season, and in 4 of those
games they failed to score. Man Utd have won away 10 times, and
kept a Clean Sheet in 8 of those games.

Man Utd have beaten Wigan 'To Nil' the last 3 times they've played
them, including 1-0 at Old Trafford earlier this season and 2-0 at
the JJB Stadium this time last season. They're 11/10 to do it again
tonight.

The Booking Points stats also highlight a bet in tonight's game...

Cards and Booking Points

Both teams' games are averaging 40 or more Booking Points (eg. 4
yellow cards). Here are their season-long averages:

Wigan - Home
Booking Points For = 18.8
Booking Points Against = 22.9
Average Total = 41.7 pts

Man Utd - Away
Booking Points For = 28.8
Booking Points Against = 21.2
Average Total = 50.0 pts

Tonight's Referee is Rob Styles. He has taken charge of 24 Premier
League games this season and has a 'Cards per game' average of
3.46.

Bookies are offering bets on Over 35 Booking Points and Over 3.5
Cards tonight...

And if you also take the '30 points' option available with some
bookies as a saver bet, you can cover yourself for a tally of 30 or
more Booking Points (see below).

That approach would've given you plenty of winners so far this
season:

·         76% of Wigan home games have had 30 or more Booking Points.

·         70% of Man Utd away games have had 30 or more Booking Points

·         63% of games refereed by Rob Styles have had 30 or more
Booking Points

All of Wigan's last 5 home games have had at least 30 Booking
Points in them: 30 pts, 120 pts, 40 pts, 60 pts and 50 pts. And 3
of Man Utd's last 5 away games have had 30 or more, too.

For example:

You make a profit if there are 35 or more Booking Points in the
game, and get your total stake back (with some to spare) if there
are exactly 30 points...

Booking Points explained:

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Most one player can get in a game = 35 pts

Also available...

This game is live on TV so several other bookies will be offering
Cards and Booking Points bets. Check with Bet365, Expekt, William
Hill, Stan James, Coral, Victor Chandler and Skybet.

And finally, a look at the Goalscorer stats...

Goalscorers - Look to profit from some 'R' and 'R' tonight...

Two of Man Utd's star men have great scoring records against
Wigan...

Since Wigan were promoted to the Premier League in 2005, Wayne
Rooney has scored 4 goals against them in 7 games. And Cristiano
Ronaldo's record is even better - 6 goals in 7 games against the
Latics.

Both players are in the Man Utd squad travelling to Wigan
tonight...

Ronaldo won the Premier League 'Golden Boot' last season and is on
course to do it again - he's the top scorer this season with 18
goals. Rooney has 12.

And both players have been in good form recently, too. Ronaldo has
scored 5 goals in his last 5 Premier League games, and also scored
2 away at Arsenal in the Champions League last week. While Rooney
has bagged 3 goals in last 5 league games.

• Rooney is 5/4 (2.25) to Score at Anytime tonight, and Ronaldo
  is Evens (2.00). Both those prices are available with Blue Square.

Both players also top the First Scorer charts for Man Utd...

Ronaldo has been the First Goalscorer in 8 Man Utd games this
season - and Rooney has bagged the First Goal on 5 occasions.
Rooney got the only goal of the game when Man Utd beat Wigan 1-0
earlier this season, and Ronaldo opened the scoring in this fixture
last season.

• Ronaldo is 7/2 (4.50) to be First Goalscorer this evening,
  and Rooney is 9/2 (5/50). Those prices are on offer at Blue Square,
  Bet365, Paddy Power and Skybet.

Good luck with your bets tonight - the game is live on Sky Sports
and kicks off at 8pm.

I'll write to you again on Friday with a full preview of the
weekends' games...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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