Four ways to win in the Premier League this weekend

Fri 15 May 2009

In your FBD weekend email today:

• Bets on all 3 live games...
• 4 ways to win in the Premier League this weekend...
• Can you predict 'The Perfect 10?

There are 3 live games on Sky Sports this weekend, and the stats
have highlighted betting opportunities in all of them...

See below for our analysis of Man Utd v Arsenal, West Brom v
Liverpool and Blackburn v Chelsea. We're also taking a look at
Tottenham v Man City.

Plus - a bit of end of season fun...

First up though, an update on our midweek email:

Wednesday results - Wigan 1 Man Utd 2

FBD said:
Man Utd 'To Win To Nil' @ 11/10 - LOST
'Total Cards - 35 pts or More' @ 5/4 - LOST

Man Utd got the win, but had to come from 1-0 down at half time.
And despite some nasty tackles and plenty of referee back-chat, Rob
Styles - for only the second time all season - kept his cards in
his pocket for the entire 90 minutes.

Now for our look at this weekend's stats...

4 ways to win this weekend

A draw at Old Trafford will give Man Utd their 11th Premier League
title...

Man Utd v Arsenal

Sat 16th May, 12.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Dean

League positions: Man Utd 1st Arsenal 4th

Man Utd go into this game needing just a draw to secure their third
consecutive Premier League title. They've won 7 games in a row in
the league. Arsenal's run of 22 league games without defeat game to
an abrupt end last weekend - when they were beaten 4-1 at home by
Chelsea.

The Goals stats highlight a bet in this one...

Goals:

Since the start of last season, Man Utd and Arsenal have played
each other 6 times in all competitions - and there have been at
least 3 goals in 5 of those games.

Here are those results - most recent first:

The Head-2-Head stats on our website show that in the Premier
League this season, 50% of Man Utd home games and 66% of Arsenal
away games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets. With the total
'Goals per game' averages at 3.1 goals at Old Trafford, and 3.2
goals per game when Arsenal play away.

Recent results are a good guide when it comes to 'Goals' bets.
Looking at both teams' last 5 games, Man Utd have had no problem
scoring goals - and Arsenal have had trouble keeping them out...

·         Man Utd have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 5
Premier League games

·         Arsenal have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 league games -
including 4 at Liverpool and another 4 against Chelsea

All of Arsenal's last 5 away games have paid out a winner on Over
2.5 Goals bets. And 3 of Man Utd's last 5 at home have also gone
'Over.'

With the likes of Rooney, Ronaldo and Tevez all in goal-scoring
form for Man Utd - and with Arsenal conceding a total of 7 goals to
Man Utd and Chelsea in their last 2 games - Over 2.5 Goals looks
the best option here.

West Brom v Liverpool

Sun 17th May, 1.30pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Atkinson

League positions: West Brom 20th    Liverpool 2nd

West Brom are bottom of the Premier League and realistically need
to win both their remaining games to have any chance at all of
avoiding relegation. However, they're up against one of the
league's most in-form teams here. Liverpool have won 5 of their
last 6 games, and only been beaten twice all season - the best
'Games Lost' record in the division.

The stats say we can expect goals in this one...

Match Handicap:

Liverpool have been scoring stacks of goals lately, while West Brom
have one of the worst defensive records in the league.

·         Liverpool are the Premier League's second-highest away
scorers with 34 'Goals For' from 18 games

·         West Brom have the second-worst home defensive record with 31
'Goals Against'

Liverpool have scored 3 or more goals in each of their last 6 games
in all competitions. And 9 of the Reds' last 10 games have paid out
a winner on Over 2.5 Goals bets.

The season-long stats on our website show that a high 72% of West
Brom home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals this season. And both
team's games are also averaging Over 2.5 Goals per game.

Liverpool are odds-on to win this weekend, at 2/5 (1.40). Over 2.5
Goals is well supported by the stats, and is available at 4/6
(1.67). But a bet on Liverpool to win by more than one goal looks
better value...

4 of Liverpool's last 5 wins have covered a '-1 Goal Handicap.' And
4 of West Brom's last 5 defeats have been by more than one goal,
too. Liverpool are available at Evens+ to win by 2 goals or more.

Also available - Liverpool '-1.5 Asian Handicap' is the same bet,
paying out if they win by more than one goal. That's available at
2.12 with Victor Chandler.

Tottenham v Manchester City

Sat 16th May, 3pm
Ref: M.Halsey

League positions: Tottenham 8th     Man City 10th

Tottenham haven't conceded a league goal at White Hart Lane since
27th January...

Goals:

Spurs have a great 'low Goals' record at home this season - 72% of
games have gone Under 2.5 Goals, with games at White Hart Lane
featuring less goals than any other Premier League ground (28).
That's an average of 1.6 goals per game.

Over half of Man City's away games have also paid out on Under 2.5
Goals bets - 55%.

Recent form...

Tottenham are on a run of 6 Clean Sheets in a row at home - and
they've won their last 4 home games 1-0. While Man City, on the
other hand, have only scored in one of their last 5 away games.

·         4 of Tottenham's last 5 home games have paid out on Under 2.5
Goals bets

·         4 of Man City's last 5 away games have also seen 2 or less
goals scored

Under 2.5 Goals is available at Evens this weekend. Considering the
'end of season' nature of this game and both teams' goals stats,
that looks decent value.

Chelsea v Blackburn

Sun 17th May, 4pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: R.Styles

League positions: Chelsea 3rd Blackburn 14th

Chelsea have racked up 12 goals in their last 5 Premier League
games. The stats suggest there'll be goals in this one - and the
Time of First Goal figures looks particularly good...

Time of First Goal:

The First Goal has come before the 28th minute in 3 of Chelsea's
last 5 league games at Stamford Bridge. And there were also early
goals in their recent home Champions League games against Liverpool
(19 mins) and Barcelona (9 mins).

Blackburn's recent record is even better - the First Goal has been
scored before the 28th minute in 4 of their last 5 away games.

For the season as whole, both teams have positive 'early goal'
figures. If we take out both teams' 3 goalless draws, 66% of
Chelsea home games AND Blackburn away games have seen goals scored
before the 28th minute.

Blackburn haven't done too well on their trips to the Premier
League's other top teams this season - they've lost 2-1 at Man Utd
and 4-0 at both Liverpool and Arsenal. In all those games, the
First Goal came before the 28th minute.

You can get 10/11 for another early strike this weekend. Most
bookies are going '27 minutes or before' - and Coral go one minute
better with 28 mins...

Also available - Time of First Goal '27 Minute or Before' is 10/11
with Stan James, Bet365, Totesport and Boylesports.

And finally...

Can you predict 'The Perfect 10'?

There are just 2 rounds of Premier League games left, so I thought
we'd have a stab at ending the season with a bang!

Below I've listed my pick of all 10 Premier League results. Based
on our statistical data - but also with one eye on the key
relegation and title matches...

Now, I wouldn't recommend this as a route to long-term profits - in
fact, these big accumulators are the bookies' favourite bets!

But I'll be having a £1 accumulator on this little lot - that comes
in at a mouth-watering 1,704/1! Well, it's got to be more fun than
doing the lottery.

Take a look, and see if you agree with my selections...

• If you think you could do better, email in and tell me your
  selections. No prizes I'm afraid - but we'll publish the most
  successful predictions by email after Portsmouth have played
  Sunderland on Monday.

Email me your 'Perfect Ten' at: FootballBettingData@oxonpress.com

Here are my predictions...

Get the best odds on this weekend's games here

Good luck!

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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