Tonight - Find the Time to bet on Portsmouth v Sunderland

Mon 18 May 2009

In your Football Betting Data email today:

• Last week's results - two winners, two losers...
• 'The Perfect 10' - 7 out of 9 correct results so far...
• Live game tonight - Portsmouth v Sunderland...

The penultimate weekend of the Premier League season saw Man Utd
win the title - and West Brom relegated to the Championship...

Man Utd got the point they needed with a 0-0 draw against Arsenal
on Saturday, and West Brom lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool on Sunday
afternoon.

Relegation battle will go to the final day...

There's one more round of games to come this weekend, with the
spotlight on Aston Villa v Newcastle and Hull v Man Utd - two games
that look likely to decide who else is relegated.

• Newcastle are 1/2 to be relegated - Hull are 13/8

Technically speaking Middlesbrough (currently 19th) can still avoid
the drop, but due to their poor goal difference they'll need to win
away at West Ham by 5 goals - AND hope that Hull and Newcastle
lose. The bookies make Boro' 16/1 'To Stay Up' - and 1/50 'To Be
Relegated.'

Sunderland (16th) are the other team that can still
'mathematically' be relegated. However they still have an extra
game to play (v Portsmouth tonight - see below), and also have
better goal difference than Hull and Newcastle, the only teams that
can overtake them. No surprise then that Sunderland are the
bookies' 12/1 outsider 'To Be Relegated' - and just 1/20 'To Stay
Up.'

• We'll be taking a closer look at the games featuring the
  relegation-threatened teams in our Friday email

Last week's results - two winners, two losers

It was a 'fifty-fifty' week for us last week, with two bets losing
on Saturday and two winning on Sunday. Following our 'FBD says'
recommendations to level stakes, you'll have broken even on the
week.

Man Utd 0 Arsenal 0

FBD said:
'Goal Line - Over 2.5' @ 19/20 - LOST

There were 24 shots in this game - but none found the back of the
net.

West Brom 0 Liverpool 2

FDB said:
'Handicap Result - Liverpool (-1)' @ 6/5 - WON

That result means West Brom are relegated. They've lost by more
than one goal in 7 out of 8 games against the 'Big 4' of Man Utd,
Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal this season.

Tottenham 2 Man City 1

FBD said:
'Under 2.5 Goals' @ Evens - LOST

The stats pointed to a low-scoring game, but this one crept 'Over
2.5 Goals' thanks to a Tottenham penalty - with just 4 minutes to
go.

Chelsea 2 Blackburn 0

FBD said:
'First Goal before / during 28 mins' @ 10/11 - WON

A winning bet after just 4 minutes here - Florent Malouda getting
the early goal for Chelsea.

'The Perfect 10' - 7 out of 9 correct results so far...

On Friday I gave you my selections for all 10 Premier League
results - based on our Head-2-Head stats, plus what was at stake in
certain matches. The odds on 'The Perfect 10' added up to a
whopping 1,704/1.

Accumulators are the hardest bets to land - and it's no surprise
that I didn't scoop the big one. We're on '7 out of 9' - and
Portsmouth play Sunderland tonight to complete the weekend fixture
list...

Howard leads the way...

Thanks to all of you that emailed in with your own 'Perfect 10'
selections. Like me, most of you had 'Man Utd to win' against
Arsenal - ruling out any chance of a clean sweep early doors.

• Well done to FBD member Howard E, who leads the way with '6
  out of 9' correct results. Howard went for the same picks as above,
  with one change - Villa to win at Middlesbrough. Howard has backed
  Portsmouth to win tonight.

Accumulators are very much a 'bookies' bet' and very rarely come
in. But by placing a combination of multiple bets - doubles,
trebles, etc - it is possible to achieve a decent payout from 4 or
5 correct picks. Look out for an email from me on this subject in
the summer.

• If you had a winning weekend, share your winning story by
  dropping me a line at: FootballBettingData@oxonpress.com

Now for a look at the stats for tonight's game - live on Setanta
Sports...

Portsmouth v Sunderland

TONIGHT - Mon 18th May, 8pm
Live on Setant Sports 1
Ref: A.Wiley

League positions: Portsmouth 15th   Sunderland 16th

Portsmouth are already safe from relegation - while a win for
Sunderland would guarantee they stay up, too.

The recent stats suggest this could be a low-scoring game - bets on
Under 2.5 Goals have paid out a winner in 4 of Portsmouth's last 5
games. And 3 of Sunderland's last 5 fixtures have also seen 2 or
less goals scored.

Under 2.5 Goals is as short as 4/7 (1.57) with several bookies
tonight. But the Time of First Goal stats highlight a better value
bet...

Time of First Goal:

Both teams' have a good record for 'late' First Goals this
season...

• In 11 out of 18 Portsmouth home games the First Goal has been
  scored After the 27th Minute - 61.1%
   
• In 9 out of 15 Sunderland away games where a goal was scored
  (there have been three goalless draws) the First Goal came After
  the 27th Minute - 60.0%

With both teams playing out several low-scoring games recently,
it's no surprise that the majority of First Goals have been scored
after the bookies' 27 minutes mark. In 3 out of Portsmouth's last 5
home games the First Goal has come After the 27th Minute. And in 3
out of Sunderland's last 5 away games the First Goal has also come
After 27th Minute.

The stats on our website show that both teams' games average First
Goal Times are well past the 27-minute mark:

• Average First Goal Time in Portsmouth home games = 40 minutes
   
• Average First Goal Time in Sunderland away games is = 40
  minutes

The best 'After' time in the First Goal market tonight is '27th
Minute Or Later' at Evens with Betfred. And given both teams' poor
recent scoring records, you should back that up with a small bet on
'No Goalscorer' at 8/1...

Also available...

Blue Square and 888 Sport's 'Time of First Goal' bets allow for a
goalless draw. Tonight they offer '33rd Minute and After (includes
0-0 draw)' at 5/6 (1.83).

I'll write to you again on Friday with a detailed look at the final
weekend of the season...

Good luck,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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Contact: Matt Nesbitt, Managing Editor

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