End of season special - get the stats on every game!

Fri 22 May 2009

The last day of the season should be a cracker...

All the games kick off at the same time - 4pm on Sunday - and all
eyes on are on the relegation battle. Two teams out of Hull,
Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Sunderland will be relegated by the
end of the day. Sky Sports are showing 3 of those games live - and
they're calling their show 'Survival Sunday'! Setanta Sports have
got West Ham v Middlesbrough.

End of season special - every game covered...

I've previewed all 10 games for you below, highlighting which
results each team need (or don't need) from each fixture - as well
as the standout stats, based on the season-long data on our
website.

For the full Head-2-Head stats for every game, go to:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk

Log In with the Password: ******

Here we go...

All games Sun 24th May, 4pm.

Wigan v Portsmouth

Both teams are safe in mid-table and have little to play for here.

KEY DATA - Wigan are bottom of the league on 'recent form'

Wigan's end of season form has been poor - they are rock bottom of
the Premier League's Form Guide table, with just 1 point won from
their last 6 games. The Form Guide puts Portsmouth up in 12th.

Man City v Bolton

This is another mid-table game with little at stake.

Man City have been strong at home this season, with 12 wins and 39
'Goals For' - only the Champions, Man Utd have better home stats.
City have won 5 of their last 6 home games - Bolton have lost 4 and
drawn 2 of their last 6 away.

Man City are at 3/4 (1.75) to win.

KEY DATA - 72% records for Over 10.5 Corners

Both teams have a high 72% record of Over 10.5 Corners bets this
season. With games averaging 11+ corners for both Man City at home
and Bolton away. There have been 11 or more corners in all of the
last 6 games at the City of Manchester Stadium - AND in Bolton's
last 6 away games.

Aston Villa v Newcastle Utd

This is a big one. Newcastle need to win - and hope that Hull or
Sunderland lose - to have a chance of avoiding relegation. Villa
can't be caught in 6th place, but do have a chance to leapfrog
Everton and finish 5th.

Both teams have only won one of their last 6 games, and picking the
Match Result looks tricky. Depending on results elsewhere, a draw
might end up being enough to keep Newcastle up.

KEY DATA - 'High corners' form on show

Aston Villa have been the league's most consistent 'high corners'
team - home and away - all season. with 78% of home games and 73%
of away games going Over 10.5 Corners.

That trend shows no sign of slowing down - there have been at least
13 corners in 5 of Villa's last 6 games. And there have been at
least 11 corners in 4 of Newcastle's last 6 games.

This is a 'make or break' game - a good setting for a 'high
corners' bet.

Hull v Man Utd

The good news for Hull is their destiny is in their own hands - a
win will keep them in the Premier League. The bad news is they're
up against the Champions, Man Utd.

KEY DATA - Man Utd set to rest several players this weekend

Man Utd have already won the league and are expected to rest
several players ahead of next week's Champions League final. That
explains why they're available at odds of 7/5 (2.40) this weekend
(with their 'normal' first team, Man Utd would be more like 1/2 to
win at Hull).

The stats don't suggest a bet on Hull though - they have only won
one of their last 22 Premier League games.

West Ham v Middlesbrough

West Ham are safe in the top half of the table. Middlesbrough are
16/1 to avoid relegation on the final day - they need to win, make
up a 'minus 4' goal deficit on Hull AND hope that Hull and
Newcastle lose.

KEY DATA - High corners stats

West Ham have been a good team for Over 10.5 Corners bets at home
this season, with 72% of games at Upton Park seeing 11 or more
corners. Middlesbrough match up well, with 66% of away games going
Over 10.5 Corners - including 4 of their last 6 away games.

At the time of writing Over 11.5 Corners is available at 17/20
(1.85) with Bet365.

This game is live on TV so check with other bookies over the
weekend, too - including Skybet, Stan James, Paddy Power, Betfred
and Blue Square.

Arsenal v Stoke

Arsenal are out on their own in 4th place, while Stoke can't finish
any lower than 12th - whatever happens this weekend. Arsenal are
just 1/3 (1.33) to win, but the Half Time / Full Time stats
highlight a better price on an 'Arsenal win'...

KEY DATA - Arsenal's 70% 'Half Time / Full Time' record

In 70% of their home wins this season (7 out of 10), Arsenal have
been winning at Half Time And Full Time. And in 75% of the away
games that Stoke have lost (9 out of 12) - they've been losing at
Half Time And Full Time.

'Arsenal Half Time / Arsenal Full Time' is 10/11 (1.91) with the
bookies.

Fulham v Everton

A win or draw for Fulham would be enough to secure 7th place and
entry to the Europa Cup next season. Everton can't finish any
higher than their current position, but will need to match or beat
Aston Villa's result in order to stay in 5th place.

KEY DATA - low Goals stats

Everton beat Fulham 1-0 in the reverse fixture earlier this season
- and this could be another low-scoring game. There have been 2 or
less goals in 50% of games at Craven Cottage, and in 61% of Everton
away games.

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out a winner in 4 of the last 6
Fulham home games - and in 4 of the last 6 Everton away games, too.

Under 2.5 Goals is 8/11 (1.73) with most bookies this weekend.

Blackburn Rovers v West Brom

Blackburn can't be overtaken in 15th place, but a win could take
them up to 13th. West Brom are already relegated.

KEY DATA - Blackburn have won 3 in a row at home

Blackburn have only lost one of their last 6 games at Ewood Park -
and they've won the last 3 in a row, by an aggregate score of '6-
1'. There was no big end of season fight-back from West Brom -
they've lost 4 of their last 6 away games.

Blackburn are around 5/6 (1.83) to beat West Brom on Sunday.

This game also looks a good match-up for a 'low Bookings' bet...

KEY DATA - 70%+ 'low Bookings' stats

Both teams have a 70%+ record of Under 35.5 Booking Points and
Under 3.5 Cards games this season. With 72% of Blackburn home games
and 78% of West Brom away games paying out on 'Under' bets.

5 of the last 6 Blackburn home games AND West Brom away games have
gone 'Under' - and that trend may well continue on the last day of
the season.

Look for 'Under' Cards and Booking Points bets with Bet365 and
Skybet.

Sunderland v Chelsea

Chelsea have got 3rd place wrapped up. But Sunderland can still
mathematically be relegated. For that to happen, Chelsea would need
to beat Sunderland, and both Hull and Newcastle would need to win -
an 8/1 shot with the bookies.

KEY DATA - 5 of last 6 Chelsea away games Under 2.5 Goals

The Goals stats point 'Under' here. Both teams' average 'goals per
game' figures go Under 2.5 - and bets on Under 2.5 Goals have paid
out a winner in 55% of Sunderland home games and 61% of Chelsea
away games this season.

Those trends have continued in recent weeks. There have been 2 or
less goals scored in 4 of the last 6 games at the Stadium of Light,
and Under 2.5 Goals bets have also paid out in 5 of the last 6
Chelsea away games.

Under 2.5 Goals is available at 10/11 (1.91). And for bigger odds,
it's worth noting that a high 55% of all Chelsea wins this season
have been by a 1-0 or 2-0 score-line...

The '1-0 Chelsea' Correct Score is 7/1 with Stan James - and '2-0'
is 8/1 with Paddy Power.

KEY DATA - The Referee's 92% 'low Bookings' record

This game also gives you one last chance to cash-in on Referee Mark
Halsey's incredible 'low Bookings' record...

Halsey has the lowest 'Cards per game' average in the Premier
League, at 1.42.

Bets on Under 35.5 Booking Points and Under 3.5 Cards have paid out
in a staggering 92% of the games Halsey has been in charge of this
season. And Sunderland and Chelsea have 50% and 72% 'Under'
figures, respectively.

Liverpool v Tottenham

Liverpool look pretty safe in 2nd place - Chelsea are 3 points and
5 goals' 'difference' behind them. In order to move up to 7th and
claim the final Europa Cup spot, Tottenham need to win - and hope
that Fulham lose.

KEY DATA - Liverpool have scored 2 or more goals in 7 games in a
row

The recent history of this fixture suggests there will be goals
here - 3 of the last 4 games between these clubs, in all
competitions, have seen 3 or more goals scored.

And 3 of the last 4 Premier League meetings at Anfield have also
paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets.

Liverpool have scored at least twice in their last 7 games in a row
in all competitions - with the last 4 league games at Anfield all
going Over 2.5 Goals. And 4 of Tottenham's last 6 away games have
also paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets.

'The Perfect 10'...

Last week I listed my 'Perfect 10' - Match Result selections for
every game - based on our Football Betting Data stats, and the
recent form. I managed to get 8 out of 10 right, and many of you
have emailed in to say you profited from your own picks, too.

Accumulators are difficult to land at the best of times, but as
it's the last day of the season I'd advise extra caution this
weekend. It's not uncommon to see some real 'shock' results at this
time of year.

Here are the 10 results that I'll be having a pound on.

The odds of all those coming in are, not surprisingly, pretty huge
(the 'acca' pays 2,682/1, to be precise).

• Email me with your own 'Perfect 10' selections - and I'll
  publish the most successful ones in next week's results email:

Send your 'Perfect 10' picks to: FootballBettingData@oxonpress.com

Good luck with all your bets this weekend.

Enjoy the last day of the season - I'll email you on Tuesday with
all the results, and details of our plans for the summer...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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