FA Cup special - Give the bookies the Blues this weekend

Fri 28 May 2009

The Premier League season is over, but there's still one more big
game to come - featuring two of the league's top sides...

It's FA Cup final weekend, with Chelsea taking on Everton at
Wembley. Kick off is at 3pm on Saturday.

This time last year our stats highlighted 3 winning bets in the Cup
final - including a 6/1 'Correct Score' on Portsmouth to beat
Cardiff 1-0. Two different sides are in the final this time round,
yet the stats point to the 'low goals' markets again...

I've gone through Chelsea and Everton's season-long Premier League
figures below - and highlighted the standout data and the best odds
on offer at the bookies.

A word of caution though - Cup finals are one-off events and as
such league form should only be taken as 'background' info. If
you're having a bet, I'd recommend keeping stakes low - then sit
back and enjoy the game...

Low goals at Wembley...

First up, a little look at the 'history books.'

Given the importance of the occasion, it's no surprise to see that
many recent Cup finals have been 'tight' games. This will be the
third FA Cup final to be played at the 'new Wembley,' and so far
both games have gone 'Under 2.5 Goals' - with two 1-0 wins. And in
the last decade, 7 of the 10 finals have had 2 or less goals.

Now for the teams' 2008/9 stats...

Chelsea v Everton

Sat 30th May, 3pm
Live on ITV1 and Setanta Sports 1
Ref: H.Webb

Match odds:

Chelsea   Draw      Everton
8/11       13/5        9/2

To win the Cup:   Chelsea 2/5 Everton 2/1

Chelsea are odds-on to win in 90 minutes at 8/11, and an even
shorter price of 2/5 to win the FA Cup outright. However, Chelsea
have failed to score against Everton in both Premier League
meetings this season...

·         Both games between Chelsea and Everton finished 0-0 this
season

·         Last season Chelsea beat Everton 1-0 away and drew 1-1 at
home

So, there's a 'low goals' trend between the two sides. And the
season-long averages show that's no fluke...

Goals:

The Team Data stats on our website show that 63% of Chelsea home
games and 58% of away games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals bets
this season. Over half of all Everton games have also had 2 or less
goals.

·         Chelsea - total average goals per game = 2.42

·         Everton - total average goals per game = 2.42

Under 2.5 Goals is well-supported by the stats, although the
bookies are not offering great value. The best price is 8/13 (1.62)
with Coral and Stan James.

It's also worth noting that Chelsea kept 22 'Clean Sheets' in
Premier League this season, and had the joint best defensive record
along with Manchester United, only conceding 24 goals all season.
That's an average of just 0.63 'Goals Against' per game.

• 72% of Chelsea wins in the Premier League this season were
  'To Nil'

With those stats in mind, the bookies' markets that are based on
Chelsea not conceding are worth a look. Guus Hiddink's men are
10/11 (1.91) to keep a 'Clean Sheet' and 13/8 (2.63) 'To Win To
Nil' in 90 minutes. Both those prices are bigger than 8/11 for
'Chelsea to win.'

Following on from those Goals and Clean Sheet records, our data
also shows that over half of all Chelsea's league wins this season
were by two 'low' score-lines. We highlighted Chelsea's strong 1-0
and 2-0 'Correct Score' records back in March, when the win figure
was 'only' at 33%. That figure has now risen to 55%...

• 55% of Chelsea wins were by a 1-0 or 2-0 score-line this
  season

Everton lost 9 games in the league, with those score-lines popping
up 3 times.

William Hill offer 6/1 for '1-0 Chelsea' and 13/2 for '2-0
Chelsea.'

You can check here for the best odds on the full range of FA Cup
final markets, including the 'Correct Score':

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/fa-cup/

Considering the recent history of low-scoring Cup finals and both
teams' Head-2-Head and 'low goals' records this season, Under 2.5
Goals looks the best option for a bet on Saturday afternoon.

Now that the Premier League season is over I'll be compiling all
our 'top stats' from 2008/9 - to give us a picture of the best-
performing and most profitable markets and bets...

We'll identify the teams, players and referees to keep an eye on at
the start of next season. And bring you news of some exciting
changes to the Football Betting Data website over the summer. Look
out for another email from me next week.

Remember you can view the full Team Data from the season right now
at our website:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: ******

Until then - enjoy the FA Cup final!

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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