Three stats to watch for in the midweek games…
Tuesday 18th August 2009.
In your FBD email today:
- My favourite Referee…
- Sunderland v Chelsea tonight!
- Hull v Tottenham…
- Liverpool v Stoke…
The new Premier League season kicked off at the weekend with some big results – and some familiar stats popping up too…
My favourite Referee!
There were 6 away wins and no draws in the opening round of games. Arsenal hammered Everton 6-1 in the first ever live game on the new ESPN channel, and that game was also noteworthy for the performance of my favourite Referee from last season – Mark Halsey…
Halsey gave out less cards than any other Ref last season, with a 93% record for ‘Under 3.5 Cards’ and ‘Under 35.5 Booking Points’ games. And it was business as usual on Saturday teatime – with NO cards shown by Mr Halsey in the game at Goodison Park.
- I’ve had emails from members asking where to get hold of the Referee info for each game. Don’t worry, I’ll send you a full list every week, either in your Football Betting Data emails or in our free Results Service email – which you get automatically as part of the service.
You can view all our Team Data, Head-2-Heads and stats for this season and last at the FBD members-only website.
Go to: www.FootballBettingData.co.uk
And Log In with the Password: ******
Three stats to watch for in the midweek games…
On to this week’s games then – there are 6 midweek games over tonight and Wednesday night, and then 10 more at the weekend!
It’s early days in the new season, but there are three games that jump off the midweek fixture list. I’ve highlighted some key stats from our archive – and some performance notes from the opening weekend – and listed below some of the best betting options from the games being played tonight and tomorrow.
We’ll start by paying our first visit of the season to the Stadium of Light…
Sunderland v Chelsea
Tonight – Tues 18th Aug, 7.45pm
Ref: S.Bennett
Match odds:
Sunderland Draw Chelsea
6/1 3/1 4/7
Chelsea are just 4/7 to win to win tonight, and that doesn’t look great value for an away win, especially so early in the season. Sunderland started with a good 1-0 away win over Bolton on Saturday – while Chelsea had to come from a goal down to grab a last-minute 2-1 home win over Hull.
In the hunt for a better price on the Blues, it’s worth noting that in 70% of the games Sunderland lost at home in 2008/9, they were beaten by just one goal – including a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Chelsea on the last day of the season.
- In the ‘Winning Margin’ markets, Chelsea are 13/5 (3.60) with Boylesports and 5/2 (3.50) with Skybet and Blue Square to win by ‘exactly one goal’ tonight. That bet paid out a winner on the Blues on Saturday, and certainly looks better value than the standard ‘away win’ at 4/7 if you fancy Chelsea to maintain a 100% start to the season.
Other bookies call that same bet the ‘Handicap Tie’ (when the handicap is Chelsea -1 goal and Sunderland +1). You can compare odds on those bets here:
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/
Hull v Tottenham
Wed 19th Aug, 7.45pm
Ref: C.Foy
Match odds:
Hull Draw Tottenham
3/1 5/2 Evens
Hull put up a good fight at Chelsea on the opening day, but eventually went down 2-1. Tottenham had a cracking start to the season, beating last year’s Premier League runners-up Liverpool 2-1 at White Hart Lane.
The 2-1 score line also popped up in this fixture last season – Spurs winning by that score at the KC Stadium in February this year – and both teams have a solid set of stats for Over 2.5 Goals games…
Our final Head-2-Head from last season shows 68% of Hull games and 63% of Tottenham away games had 3 or more goals in them last season. Hull at home averaged 2.8 total goals per game, with Tottenham away trips averaging 3.1 goals.
It’s very early days in 2009/10 of course. But both team’s opening games landed Over 2.5 Goals bets at the weekend – and significantly, there were plenty of other scoring chances too. Chelsea had a whopping 33 shots at the Hull goal, while Spurs fired 20 shots at Liverpool on Sunday.
- Taking into account the overall stats, Evens (2.00) for ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ in tomorrow night’s game looks a decent price. That’s on offer with Boylesports, Totesport and at Bet365 (‘Goal Line’ market).
You can view all the ‘Over / Under’ goals odds for Hull v Tottenham here:
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/
Liverpool v Stoke
Wed 19th Aug, 8pm
Ref: P.Walton
Match odds:
Liverpool Draw Stoke
1/4 5/1 14/1
Liverpool lost 2-1 at Tottenham on Sunday – while Stoke started the new campaign with a solid 2-0 home win over new side Burnley.
The Reds are just 1/4 (1.25) for a home win here. Liverpool were the only unbeaten home team in the Premier League last season - but the stats history shows there’s better value to be had in the Corners markets for this one…
This fixture is highlighted on our 2008/9 form guide for having one of the highest corner counts of the season. Stoke held Liverpool to a 0-0 draw at Anfield last time round – a game that saw 22 corners, with Liverpool winning 19 of them (19-3).
That result was no fluke. Liverpool have been one of the most reliable ‘corner winners’ in the Premier League for years now. Last season they averaged 8.8 ‘Corners For’ per home game – which is almost 3 corners more than the Premier League average.
Our stats show Liverpool won almost 6 corners per game more than opponents – the best ‘corners won margin’ in the Premier League. In 2008/9 Liverpool won the most corners in a table-topping 84% of games at Anfield – that’s 16 out of 19 games.
It’s a new season, but Liverpool v Stoke could play out in a similar way as last time - with the Reds desperate for the win…
- In their ‘Asian Handicap Corners’ market, Bet365 offer Liverpool with a ‘-4.5 Handicap’ at 19/20 (1.95) – a bet that wins if Liverpool get at least 5 corners more than Stoke.
Find the best odds on all bets for this game here:
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/
Good luck with any early-season bets you’re having. I’ll write to you on Friday with a look at the weekend’s games – the new season is well and truly upon us now!
P.S
You can still access the exclusive Top Scorers guide I told you about last week. It features analysis of all the Top Scorer markets for the new season – and contains our Top 7 Scorer Bets for 2009/10. Darren Bent is already off to a good start after scoring at the weekend…
www.footballoffer.co.uk/fbdtopscorers0910
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Football Betting Data
http://www.FootballBettingData.co.uk Password: ******
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