Your guide to the weekend's action

Fri 21st August 2009

It's Tottenham and Chelsea who sit top of the table after the mid-
week fixtures...

Spurs won 5-1 away at Hull with Jermain Defoe scoring the 1st hat-
trick of the Premier League season. While on Tuesday, Chelsea came
from a goal down to beat Sunderland 3-1.

We also had the first shock result of the season as Burnley defeated
champions Manchester United 1-0.

Wolves and Birmingham also recorded their first win after returning
to the top flight. Winning 1-0 away to Wigan and 1-0 at home to
Portsmouth, respectively.

Stats the way to go

2 out of the 3 stats in Tuesday's email would have returned winning
bets during the week...

Hull v Tottenham had gone 'Over 2.5 Goals' inside 25 minutes and
Liverpool racked up 11 Corners to Stoke's 5 on their way to a 4-0
win.

Unfortunately Chelsea won by 2 clear goals (not the 1 goal
suggested) beating Sunderland 3-1.

It's still very early days in the season, with no real form in the
book so again there will be no 'recommended bets' until next week.
But there are some compelling stats from last season that can guide
us to some betting opportunities this weekend...

Wigan v Manchester United
Sat 22nd Aug, 3pm
Ref: H. Webb

Both teams come into this game on the back of a mid-week defeat,
following wins on the opening weekend.

Last season 63.2% of Wigan's home games went 'Under 2.5 Goals' -
while 68.4% of Manchester United's away games also went 'Under' the
goals.

So far this season both of Wigan's games have gone 'Under' the goals
(2-0 and 0-1). United also share the same record (1-0 and 0-1).

Get the latest odds on this match here

West Ham v Tottenham
Sun 23rd Aug, 1.30pm
Live on ESPN
Ref: M. Clattenburg

West Ham have played just one match - beating new boys Wolves 2-0.
While Tottenham have maximum points after two games - beating
Liverpool 2-1 at home and Hull 5-1 away.

First Goal Time

Last season at Upton Park the First Goal was scored on average in
the 38th minute. In Tottenham's away games last term, the average
First Goal time was 34 minutes. West Ham lost 2-0 to Tottenham last
season with the First Goal coming in the 68th minute.

You can get Evens (2.00) with Stan James for the First Goal to be
scored 'After 27th Minute' on Sunday.

Corners

Both teams' have healthy 'high' corner stats from last season. 68.4%
of West Ham's home games went 'Over 10.5 Corners' while 57.9% of
Tottenham's away games also went 'Over' the Corners.

West Ham home games averaged 12.1 Corners per match - Tottenham away
games averages 11.4 Corners per game.

In last season's encounter between the two sides the Total Corner
count was 12. Another similar total is not out of the question.

Bet365 are offering 17/20 (1.85) that Sunday's game goes 'Over 11.5
Corners'.

Get the latest odds on this match here

Note: History seems to favour Tottenham. They are unbeaten in the
last 17 meetings against West Ham. And Spurs also had the best
record in London derby's last term only losing in 1 of their 8 games
against their city rivals. And manager Harry Redknapp has been back
to Upton Park 4 times since he left the Irons' in 2001 - winning on
all four occasions.

Fulham v Chelsea
Sun 23rd Aug, 4pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: A. Marriner

Fulham started the season with a 1-0 win at Portsmouth. While
Chelsea have two wins from two, beating Hull 2-1 and Sunderland 3-1.

Even though this is a local derby the Booking Points stats cannot be
ignored from last season...

73.7% of Fulham's home games and 73.7% of Chelsea's away games went
'Under 35 Booking Points/ Under 3.5 Cards' last season. Fulham were
the best behaved team in the Premier League last season. Chelsea
also had an excellent disciplinary record as well - the 5th best in
the league.

You can get 3/4 (1.75) with Bet365 for Sunday's game to go 'Under
3.5 Cards'. Last season's game at the Cottage went 'Under' - 1
Yellow Card to Fulham 2 to Chelsea.

Get the latest odds on this match here

Arsenal v Portsmouth
Sat 22nd Aug, 3pm
Ref: S. Bennett

It is hard to see Portsmouth getting anything from their trip to the
Emirates. But with the bookies offering odds of just 1/5 for a win,
the more sensible option looks like backing Arsenal on the Corner
Handicap.

Last season Arsenal posted some impressive Corner winning stats:

• They won the Most Corners in 17 out of 19 home matches.
  
• Averaging 8.2 Corners For, 2.8 Corners Against.
  
• Backing them with a '-2 Corner Handicap' would have paid out
  in 84% of their home matches.

Portsmouth were out cornered in 13 of their 19 Away games last term
- and look in worse shape this time around.

In the corresponding tie, Arsenal racked up 11 Corners to
Portsmouth's 2.

Bet365 are offering a (-5) Handicap at Evens. A stiff target, but
Arsenal are well capable of reaching it.

Get the latest odds on this match here

With so little form in the book it is difficult to bet with any
conviction so early in the season. Last season's stats help, but
with three teams new to the Premier League, this only goes so far.

However, there are some strong form lines which can guide us to
matches involving the newly promoted teams this weekend...

Manchester City scored the First Goal in 89% of Home matches last
season.

City started with a good win at Blackburn and are quoted at 1/3 to
beat new boys Wolves - no much value there. And 'To Score First'
they are only 3/10.

But you can get 5/6 (generally available) in the Half Time/ Full
Time market (this means to be leading at Half Time and win the
match). So if you fancy City to continue their good start, this is
the better value option.

Get the latest odds on this match here

Another one of the newly promoted teams Birmingham City host Stoke
City. While we have no Premier League form for the Blues, their
Championship stats from last season do match well with Stokes for a
low scoring match.

Birmingham had the best defensive record in the division, conceding
just 37 goals - 17 of these at Home. While Stoke averaged less than
a goal a game Away from home (0.8).

Under 2.5 Goals is available at around 4/6, but a better option
might be the 'First Goal After 28th minute' which is on offer at
Even Money.

(Stoke's matches last season averaged a First Goal in the 37th
minute).

Get the latest odds on this match here

Good luck with your early season bets. I'll write to you on Monday
with a round-up of the weekend's action, plus a look at the
Liverpool v Aston Villa match that evening.

P.S
You can still access the exclusive Top Scorers guide I told you
about last week. It features analysis of all the Top Scorer markets
for the new season - and contains our Top 7 Scorer Bets for 2009/10.
Our three picks are all off the mark - so get in quick.

http://www.footballoffer.co.uk/pdf/fbdtopscorers0910download.pdf

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk       Password: ******

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