Play your Cards right on Man Utd v Arsenal tomorrow!

Friday 28th August 2009.

This weekend sees the first 'Big 4' clash of the season - reigning
Premier League champs Man Utd take on Chelsea at Old Trafford!

The match is live on Sky Sports at 5.15pm Saturday evening, and the
stats have highlighted a bet for us in the Bookings Points market.
Read on for our big match preview.

Plus, I'm looking at two other live TV games and a great Goal Time
trend in one of the Saturday 3pm kick offs - as we make a step to
the plate with our first 'FBD says' recommend bets of the season...

Chelsea v Burnley

Sat 29th Aug, 12.45pm
Live on ESPN
Ref: M.Clattenburg

Burnley pulled off one of the shocks of the season when they beat
Man Utd 1-0 the other week - but it would be an even bigger surprise
if they managed to get 3 points away at Chelsea tomorrow. The Blues
have a 100% record so far - played 3 won 3 - and even at the short
price of 1/7, the 'home win' is sure to feature in many bettor's
football 'accas' this weekend.

One of our top statistics from last season was Chelsea's home
'corner-winning' record - and that could be the key to getting a
bigger price on the Blues here...

• Chelsea won the most corners in 84% of games at Stamford
  Bridge last season - 16 out of 19 games. They averaged 6.8 Corners
  For and 3.5 Against at home.

So far this season Chelsea have won the most corners in every game
they've played. With corner counts of 12-4 in their favour at home
to Hull, 14-1 away to Sunderland and 7-4 away to Fulham.

Burnley have just beaten Man Utd and Everton 1-0 at home, and in
both those games they came under a lot of pressure, being out-
cornered 1-13 and 3-7 respectively.

With those Corners stats and Chelsea's excellent start to the season
in mind, a good option for this game is to double up 'Chelsea to
win' at 1/7 with 'Chelsea -4 Corner Handicap' at 19/20 or 5/6.

That double is available at around 6/5 with Bet365 and 11/10 with
Stan James. It pays out a winner if Chelsea beat Burnley AND win at
least 5 corners more than Burnley.

Aston Villa v Fulham

Sun 30th Aug, 4pm
Live on Sky Sports
Ref: S.Bennett

Villa and Fulham were two of our top-rated 'low Bookings' teams last
season. Bets on 'Under 3.5 Cards' or 'Under 35.5 Booking Points'
paid out in 68% of Villa home games and a massive 84% of Fulham's
away games - with the match average for both teams coming in at
under 30 points (less than 3 yellow cards).

Both meetings between the two teams also went 'Under' last season
(20 pts at Villa Park and 10 pts at Craven Cottage).

However those trends have yet to re-emerge at the start of the
2009/10 season. A glance at the early form for both teams on our
website shows that both of Villa and Fulham's league games this
season have tipped 'Over' the 35 Booking Points mark. That's only 4
games' worth of form, but it's worth knowing...

And with that in mind, the bookies' 'low' Cards and Booking Points
options don't look good value this weekend. Most bookies are asking
you to bet 'Under 25 Points', which is just 2 yellow cards or less.
While Bet365 offer just 4/7 (1.57) for 'Under 3.5 Cards' in the
match.

• The best 'Under' option I've seen so far is 'Under 3 Cards' at
  9/10 (1.90) in Bet365's other Cards market - 'Asian Total Cards.'
  That pays out if there are 2 or less Cards, and gives you your money
  back if there are exactly 3 Cards. (Bet365 count a yellow as 1 Card
  and a Red as 2 Cards.)

For our main bet for this game, a different Booking Points market
stands out...

So far this season Fulham have got the Most Booking Points in both
their Premier League games, one at home v Chelsea and one away v
Portsmouth. While Villa haven't racked up the most points in either
of their two games.

• The 'Previous Season' data on our site shows that last season
  Villa averaged 8.4 Booking Points For at home and 19.2 Against. That
  means that, on average, opponents picked up more than twice as many
  Booking Points as Villa.

• Last season Fulham averaged 8.9 Points For and 8.7 Points
  Against in their away games.

• Aston Villa only got the Most Booking Points in ONE out of 19
  home games last season. And the home team only ended up with the
  Most Bookings in 4 out of 19 Fulham away games last season.

Those figures point to a bet on Fulham getting the 'Most Booking
Points' in Sunday's game. That's available at Evens with William
Hill.

And the stats are nicely backed up by last season's results - Fulham
got ALL the Bookings in the two games between the sides last season,
and Villa didn't get any Bookings at all.

Stoke v Sunderland

Sat 29th Aug, 3pm
Ref: H.Webb

These teams had some of the highest 'First Goal Time' figures in the
Premier League last season...

• In 14 out of 16 Stoke home games where a goal was scored, the
  First Goal came After the 27th Minute

• In 10 out of 16 Sunderland away games where a goal was scored,
  the First Goal came After the 27th Minute

Our Goal Time stats show that Stoke home games had an average First
Goal Time of 50 minutes last season. The figure for Sunderland away
games was 41 minutes. Those are high averages, and well clear of the
bookies' usual 27 or 28 Minutes mark.

It's also worth noting that in BOTH games between Stoke and
Sunderland last season, there were no goals scored in the First Half
of either game. When Stoke beat Sunderland 1-0 at home the goal
didn't some until the 73rd minute of play, and when Sunderland beat
Stoke 2-0, it took until the 78th minute for the deadlock to be
broken.

Stoke are a solid 'low Goals' team at home, and so far this season
their defensive playing style seems intact. Bets on the Time of
First Goal are available with all major bookies, and at the time of
writing Totesport and Stan James offer the best 'After' options...

And last but not least - a look at the 'Match of the Day'...

Man Utd v Arsenal

Sat 29th Aug, 5.15pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Dean

Man Utd and Arsenal go head-to-head in the first 'Big 4' clash of
the season on Saturday evening. These games are always tough to
call, but the stats do highlight one trend that matches up well with
the bets of offer at the bookies...

• In 4 of the last 5 games between Man Utd and Arsenal in all
  competitions, Arsenal have received the Most Booking Points

That trend is supported by last season's overall figures, and the
early form in 2009/10. Last season Man Utd averaged less Booking
Points For than Against at home - 12.9 Points For and 18.9 Points
Against. Arsenal's figures were level at 20-20.

• Man Utd only got the Most Bookings in 26% of home games last
  season

• The home team only go the Most Bookings in 26% of Arsenal's
  away games last season

So far this season Man Utd haven't got the Most Bookings in any of
their 3 Premier League games. Arsenal have played twice, with their
opponents yet to be shown a singe yellow card against them (0-0 pts
v Everton and 10-0 pts v Portsmouth).

Blue Square offer 5/6 for Arsenal to win the 'Booking Points Match
Bet' in tomorrow's big game.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And remember you can
check out all the Premier League stats for this season AND last
season at the members-only FBD website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: ******

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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