Cash-in on Chelsea at 6/1 this weekend

Friday 11th Sept 2009.

The International break is over - and the Premier League is back in
action this weekend...

We had four out of four winners from our first bets of the season a
couple of weeks back, and today the stats have highlighted four more
games for us to cash-in on.

Plus, the Champions League starts next week and we're launching a
new service for that too - read on for more details. First up though
- this weekend's Premier League action...

Man City v Arsenal

City have played 3 games so far, won them all and conceded no goals.
And each game has gone Under 2.5 Goals. However, they are yet to
come up against a team like Arsenal...

The Gunners have won 2 of their 3 games so far, every game has gone
Over 2.5 Goals and no team in the Premier League has scored more
goals than them (11 Goals For from just 3 games). So something's got
to give this weekend.

When we add last season's stats into the picture, the Over 2.5 Goals
option stands out - 63% of Man City home games and 63% of Arsenal
away games went 'Over' last season...

• Man City home games averaged 3.0 total goals per game in
  2008/9

• Arsenal away games averaged 3.0 total goals in 2008/9

There were 3 goals in this fixture last season (3-0 to Man City),
and 4 goals at the City of Manchester Stadium in the match-up before
that.

City have strengthened their defence with new signings over the
summer, sure - but it's worth noting that 3 of City's 4 home games
against the Premier League's 'Big 4' teams paid out on Over 2.5
Goals bets in 2008/9:

Man City 3 Arsenal 0
Man City 1 Chelsea 3
Man City 0 Man Utd 1
Man City 2 Liverpool 3

The bookies will give you odds of 19/20 and 10/11 for Over 2.5 Goals
in Saturday's game.

Fulham v Everton

Sun 13th Sept, 4.15pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: P.Walton

This is a game I've had circled on my calendar since the fixture
list was announced. Both teams had exceptional 'low Bookings'
figures last season - and the news that Peter Walton has been
appointed as the Referee is even better...

A look at our 'Previous Season' Head-2-Head for these teams shows
that 73% of Fulham home games AND 73% of Everton away games went
Under 35.5 Booking Points last season. And both teams' games
averaged Under 30 Points (less than 3 yellow cards) per game. Those
are impressive stats.

So far this season these 'low' trends look to be continuing. Both
teams have only played 3 Premier League games so far in 2009/10, but
2 of each have gone Under 35 Booking Points / Under 3.5 Cards. And
both Fulham and Everton have played their part in a 'zero Bookings'
game each already.

• There were No Bookings at all in either game between Fulham
  and Everton last season. Zero Booking Pts in the game at Craven
  Cottage and none at Goodison Park either. That's a great record.

The Referee for this one is Peter Walton. From all the Refs that
took charge of 20+ Premier League games last season, he is second
only to our good friend Mark Halsey in terms of 'low Bookings'
averages. Walton dished out 67 yellows and 3 reds across 27 games
last season - making for an average of just 2.59 cards per game.

All those stats point to an 'Under' bet this weekend...

Also available - spread your stake across these two options...

• 75% of your stake on: 
  Card Index - 'Up to and Including 25 points' @ 11/10 (2.10) with
  Paddy Power or 'Under 30 Points' at 11/10 (2.10) with Blue Square
  and 888 Sport

AND

• The other 25% of your stake on: 
  '30 to 35 points inclusive' @ 7/2 (4.50) with Paddy Power

Those options will put you in line to profit if there are 35 or less
Booking Points in the game - with the main profit coming if there
are 25 or less points.

Portsmouth v Bolton

Sat 12th Sept, 3pm
Ref: C.Foy

Both teams have had a dreadful start to the season - Portsmouth have
played 4 and lost 4 and Bolton have played 3 and lost 3. And as is
usually the case with teams at the bottom of the table, goals have
been hard to come by...

• There has only been one goal scored in 3 out of 4 Portsmouth
  games so far

• There's only been one goal scored in 2 out of 3 Bolton games
  so far

Totesport offer 2/1 for '0-1 Goals' to be scored in Saturday's game
- a bet that would've paid out in 5 out of 7 games involving
Portsmouth and Bolton so far this season.

And from the history books, here's another interesting stat -
there's been a '1-0' result in one of the two games between these
sides every season that they've both been in the Premier League
(that's 6 out of 12 meetings).

The safer option this weekend is the more common 'Under 2.5 Goals'
bet, which is available with pretty much any bookies and covers us
for 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2 score-lines, Best price 8/11
with Skybet.

Stoke v Chelsea

Match Result

Stoke sit 5th in the Premier League after an excellent start to the
season - with home wins over Burnley and Sunderland and 3 'Clean
Sheets' from 4 games overall. The bookies aren't phased though -
they still make Stoke a massive 8/1 to get a win this weekend.

Chelsea are flying high at the top of the table with 4 out of 4 wins
so far. They are odds-on at 2/5 (1.40) to win again here. In our
last match preview email we got bigger odds - and a winner - on
Chelsea by looking at the other markets (a 6/5 double on the win and
the Corner Handicap v Burnley). And there are bets in alternative
markets that stand out at healthy prices this weekend...

Skybet will give you 5/4 (2.25) for Chelsea 'To Win To Nil'. That
bet paid out a winner in over half (57%) of all Chelsea's away games
last season - and in an impressive 11 of the 14 away games that they
won.

• 78% of Chelsea away wins last season were 'Won To Nil'

• 75% of Stoke's home defeats were 'To Nil'

The Correct Score odds also look appealing for this game...

Ladbrokes offer 6/1 each for 1-0 Chelsea and 2-0 Chelsea score-
lines. Stoke lost 4 games at the Britannia Stadium last season - and
3 of them fell into that low-scoring bracket (1-0 twice and 2-0
once).

It's also worth noting that 73% of Stoke home games last season (and
both their home games so far this season) went Under 2.5 Goals. And
that 3 of their 4 games against the Premier League's 'Big 4' teams
were low-scoring affairs - including the game against Chelsea.

Chelsea won 14 away games in 2008/9, and 8 of them would've given
you a profit on the 1-0 or 2-0 Correct Scores. In fact, if you'd
backed Chelsea to win 1-0 and 2-0 at 6/1 in all their away game last
season, those bets would've generated a 47% Return on Investment.

This fixture last season finished 2-0 to Chelsea. So far Chelsea
have played 2 away games in 2009/10 - and won 2-0 at Fulham on their
most recent trip.

The 1-0 and 2-0 Chelsea score-lines are both 6/1 with Ladbrokes.
They also let you combine the same two bets in one in their 'Quatro'
market - 'Chelsea to win with 2 or fewer goals scored in the match'
at 5/2 (3.50).

For big odds, look to those Correct Score options. But for our main
bet, we'll go for the 'To Win To Nil' option.

Odds booster...

All four of our recommended bets today can be combined in a four-
fold accumulator bet with Bet365 - and that would pay out at around
9/1 with Bet365. And while we're looking at big odds - why not
consider a Yankee bet on four of the selections mentioned in today's
email...

A Yankee consists of 11 bets involving 4 selections in different
events, i.e. 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 four fold. A minimum of 2 of
your selections must be successful to get a return. Note: A Yankee
will cost you 11 x your stake, so a £1 stake x 11 will cost you £11.

These four options can be combined at Paddy Power:

• Man City v Arsenal - Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
  
• Fulham v Everton - Card Index: Up and Including 25 points @
  11/10
  
• Portsmouth v Bolton - Under 1.5 Goals @ 7/4
  
• Stoke v Chelsea - Chelsea To Win To Nil @ Evens

The four-fold alone is worth around 22/1 there - and with the
doubles and trebles included the potential payout is handsome.

• There are big odds on offer, but multiple bets like these are
  tricky to land - so keep stakes low.
  

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My Champions League Bet service works just like Football Betting
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Good luck with all your bets this weekend - I'll write to you again
on Monday with a look at the latest stats and results...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: sven

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