Go 'Over' at the Bridge this weekend

18th September 2009

In your FBD weekend preview today:

• Six bets for the weekend...
  
• Cash-in on 'Super Sunday'...
  
• Get 16/1 on the Goals markets...

The top-flight football is coming thick and fast now! We had the
Champions League in the week - and now the Premier League is back
with a full set of games...

Sky Sports have got a mouth-watering double header on Sunday
afternoon - Man Utd v Man City followed by another big derby match,
Chelsea v Spurs. No wonder they call is 'Super Sunday'! There are
standout stats for both those games below.

Plus, I've got a bet for you on Saturday evening's live ESPN game -
West Ham v Liverpool - and a special look at the bookies' Under and
Over 2.5 Goals markets.

Read on for our recommendations for the weekend. And don't forget
you can view Head-2-Head comparisons for every game at the members-
only FBD website, giving you an at-a-glance guide to all the
Corners, Goals and Bookings markets - as well as recent Form for
picking Match Results.

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Let's start our weekend preview at Stamford Bridge...

Chelsea v Tottenham

Sun 20th Sept, 4pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: H.Webb

Chelsea have won 5 out of 5 games so far and sit top of the league.
Tottenham have an early season 100% record of their own - 5 out of
5 games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets so far this season...

• Tottenham games are averaging a high 3.8 goals per game so
  far in 2009/10

• Last season Tottenham's away games averaged 3.10 goals per
  game, with 63% paying out on Over 2.5 Goals bets

Chelsea are also shaping up to be a 'high goals' team this season.
Their Premier League games are averaging 3 goals per game, and 4
from 5 games have paid out on Over 2.5 bets - including both games
at Stamford Bridge.

• 80% of Chelsea games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets so
  far this season

The 'Form' stats on our FBD website show that both teams are firing
in plenty of Shots right now - a good sign when you're looking at
an 'Over' goals bet. Chelsea have averaged a high 33 Total Shots
per game at home so far, and Tottenham have registered 20 Shots per
away game.

Two of the Premier League's current Top Scorers are also expected
to play a part in this game - Jermain Defoe has 5 goals for Spurs,
and Didier Drogba has hit 4 for Chelsea.

Bookies are offering 5/6 for Over 2.5 Goals in Sunday's game.

The early season form also highlights another 'Over' market in this
game...

Corners

100% of Chelsea's games have gone Over 10.5 Corners so far. And so
have 4 out of 5 Spurs games - including both their away trips.
Games at Stamford Bridge have averaged 13.5 Total Corners, and the
Tottenham away figure is 11.5.

Over half of both teams' games went Over 10.5 Corners last season.
And there were at least 13 corners in both Chelsea v Tottenham
games.

Those stats - and both teams' high Goals and Shots figures so far
this season - suggest an 'Over' corners bet on Sunday...

Corners bets are available with Coral and William Hill at the time
of writing. This game is live on TV though so many others will
price up later today - including Bet365, Stan James, Skybet, Paddy
Power, Betfred and Blue Square.

Double up - and boost your odds...

The stats suggest high Goals and Corners for Chelsea v Tottenham. A
Double on 'Over 2.5 Goals' and 'Over 12 Corners' pays over 3/1 with
Coral.

Bolton v Stoke

Sat 19th Sept, 3pm
Ref: M.Clattenburg

Bolton have lost both their games at the Reebok Stadium so far -
and been beaten in 3 out of 4 games overall. That poor start to the
season puts them in the 'relegation zone' at the moment.

• Bolton's only win so far came against bottom-of-the-table
  Portsmouth - who are the only team in the Football League to have
  lost all their games this season

Stoke on the other hand have been solid - they're 8th in the table
having won 2, lost 2 and drawn once.

• High-flying Chelsea and Liverpool are the only teams to beat
  Stoke so far in 2009/10

On current form, Stoke are clearly the stronger side right now.
They are 13/5 (3.60) to claim an away win, 13/8 'Draw No Bet' and
4/6 'Double Chance' (not to lose).

'Draw No Bet':
This bet wins if Stoke win, and gives you your money back (void) if
the match is drawn.

Aston Villa v Portsmouth

Sat 20th Sept, 3pm
Ref: S.Atwell

Portsmouth are the only team in the Premier League and Football
League without a single point to their name - played 5 lost 5.

• Villa have won their last 3 games in row - scored 6 goals and
  conceded just one.

• Portsmouth have lost all 5 games so far - scored 3 goals and
  conceded 10.

Villa are 2/5 (1.40) across the board for a home win - and that
looks hard to argue with. And the Corners stats look to match up
well here - with the opportunity for a 2/1 Double...

• Both Villa-Portsmouth games went Over 12 Corners last season.

Villa were one of the Premier League's top 'high corners' teams
last season - our figures show 73% of games went Over 10.5 Corners.
With games at Villa Park averaging over 13 total corners per game
(13.5).

Over half of Portsmouth's away games also paid out on Over 10.5
Corners bets in 2008/9.

So far this season, 2 of Villa's 4 games have gone 'Over 12
Corners' - and 3 of Portsmouth's 5 games have had 12 or more
corners.

Portsmouth's dreadful form - and both teams' strong Corners records
- make a Double on Villa to win and Over 12 Corners a decent option
here.

• You'll also be able to place a Double on Villa to win and an
  'Over' Corners bet with Bet365, when their prices go up later
  today.
  

West Ham v Liverpool

Sat 29th Sept, 5.30pm
Live on ESPN
Ref: A.Marriner

We cashed-in on West Ham and Liverpool games twice last season with
the same bet - Liverpool on the 'Corner Handicap.' And that option
looks the best bet again this time round...

• West Ham have been 'out-cornered' in 3 out of 4 games so far
  (including 4-8 at home to Tottenham).

• Liverpool have won the most corners in 4 out of 5 games so
  far.

Liverpool won the most corners in both games with West Ham last
season, by +2 corners margin at West Ham and by a huge +12 at
Anfield.

• West Ham only won the most corners in 37% of home games at
  Upton Park last season (7 out of 19 games)

• Liverpool won the most corners in 58% of away games last
  season (11 out of 19)

It's early days in the new season, but the overall averages so far
show those trends are still going strong...

West Ham are averaging 4.75 Corners For and 6.5 Against.
Liverpool's figures are 8.80 For and 5.0 Against.

Liverpool have been an excellent 'corner winner' for several
seasons now, and this game looks a good match-up for another bet on
Liverpool on the 'Corner Handicap.'

'-1.5 Corner Handicap':
This bet wins if Liverpool win at least 2 corners more than West
Ham.

• Other bookies will put their Corner Handicap markets up later
  today. Check with Bet365, Stan James, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfred,
  Expekt and Paddy Power.
  

A note on the big match in Manchester on Sunday...

Manchester Utd v Manchester City

Sun 20th Sept, 1.30pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Atkinson

This is a tough one to call. The reigning Premier League Champions
against the moneybags team who've made a 100% start to the season.
And it just so happens to be a huge derby match, too. United did
the double over City last season - and City did the double over
United the year before.

There looks to be value in one particular market here...

Man Utd had to come from behind to win away at Tottenham last week
- and did the same in their last home game v Arsenal. Overall,
United have only scored first in 2 of their 5 league games so far.

Man City have played 4, won 4 so far - and been the first team to
score in each of those games.

With City on a roll right now - and Man Utd recovering from a
tricky trip to Turkey in the Champions League midweek - 12/5 for
the away team to score first on Sunday looks decent value.

And now for some big odds...

'The Goal Machine'

There's a handful of games where the stats match-up particularly
well for 'Under' or 'Over' Goals bets this weekend. I've already
mentioned one of them, Chelsea v Tottenham 'Over 2.5 Goals' - and
combined in an accumulator or multiples bet, these offer big odds
payouts from the bookies...

• Chelsea v Tottenham - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
  
• Everton v Blackburn - OVER 2.5 Goals @ Evens
  
• Wolves v Fulham - UNDER 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
  
• Hull v Birmingham - UNDER 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
  
• Burnley v Sunderland - UNDER 2.5 Goals @ 8/11

For example, a 5-fold accumulator on all those outcomes pays 16/1
at Skybet.

A treble on the 'Under 2.5 Goals' selections alone comes in at just
over 4/1.

Or you might want to mix and match any 4 of these in a 'Yankee' bet
- with the potential of a multiple payout. A Yankee consists of 11
bets involving 4 selections in different events, i.e. 6 doubles, 4
trebles and one 4-fold. A minimum of 2 of your selections must be
successful to get a return.

Note: A Yankee will cost you 11 x your stake, so a £1 stake x 11
will cost you £11.

Multiple bets like these offer potentially huge payouts - but the
more selections there are in your bet, the harder it is to land -
so I'd recommend keeping stakes sensible.

You can find the best odds on any bet on this weekend's Premier
League games here:

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

Good luck!

Enjoy the weekend's games. I'll write to you again on Monday with
the latest stats and results...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: ******

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