Double your money on Spurs, Portsmouth and Liverpool
this weekend

Friday 24th September 2009

In your FBD weekend preview today:

• Bets for the live games on Saturday and Sunday...
  
• Double your money on Spurs, Portsmouth and Liverpool...
  
• Cash-in on these 100% trends - at 17/1!

The weekend is here again - and that means it's time to get your
Premier League bets on...

This week's fixture list looks a good one, with several excellent
match-ups on the stats. Read on for our 4 top bets of the weekend -
including 2 on the live Sky Sports games. Plus I'm taking an extra
look at some of the 100% trends that are paying out week after week
at the moment - with a way to turn them in to big odds winners.

The action starts at Fratton Park on Saturday lunchtime...

Portsmouth v Everton

Sat 26th Sept, 12.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: A.Wiley

Both teams have Bookings trends worth looking at here...

• Bets on Under 3.5 Cards (or Under 35.5 Booking Points) have
  paid out in 4 from 6 Portsmouth games so far - and in 5 out of 6
  Everton games.

• A high 73% of Everton away games went 'Under 3.5 Cards' last
  season

The Referee for this one is Alan Wiley. His card average from last
season is low at 2.93 cards per game (from 28 games).

However...

Wiley has given out at least 3 yellow cards in all 5 Premier League
games he's been in charge of so far in 2009/10. It's also worth
noting that Portsmouth home games are averaging 30 points this
season, and that their home games in 2008/9 averaged almost exactly
35 points.

I'd expect most bookies to be offering 'Under 30' or 'Under 25
Booking Points' bets this weekend (Bet365 would be your best bet for
the slightly higher 'Under 3.5 Cards' line).

No great value there. But the 'Most Bookings' and 'First Card'
markets look better options...

• Portsmouth are averaging 23.3 Points For and 6.7 Against at
  home - while Everton are picking up just 5 Pts per away game (with
  10 pts Against).

• Portsmouth have got the Most Booking Points and the First Card
  in all 3 of their home games so far (and in 4 out of 6 games
  overall).

• Everton haven't got the Most Bookings in any of their 5 games
  so far this season. And they have only picked up the First Card once
  (and that was at home).

Everton have a great 'low Bookings' record. And the early-season
stats show Portsmouth are picking up most of the bookings at Fratton
Park.

• Also available - Portsmouth are 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill
  get the 'First Card.'

Bookings Points explained...

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Most one player can get in a game (2 yellows resulting in a red) = 35 pts.

Tottenham v Burnley

Sat 26th Sept, 3pm
Ref: M.Dean

Tottenham have won 2 out of 3 games at White Hart Lane so far - the
only defeat coming at the hands of Premier League champs Man Utd (1-
3). Burnley have lost 3 out of 3 away games, with a grim away goals
record of Scored 0 Conceded 9.

Spurs are high up my list of teams to bet on right now - with 6
league games played, they have a 100% record for Over 2.5 Goals
bets.

In fact, all 8 games Spurs have played in all competitions have gone
'Over' the goals so far - including a 5-1 Carling Cup win on
Wednesday night.

• Tottenham home games are averaging 3.7 goals per game

• Burnley's away games are averaging 3.0 goals per game

The stats point strongly to Over 2.5 Goals here. And Burnley won't
be helped by an injury picked up by first choice goalkeeper Brian
'The Beast' Jensen in the Carling Cup on Tuesday. He was stretchered
off and replaced by stand-in keeper Diego Penny - who has yet to
make an appearance in the Premier League.

• Over 2.5 Goals is available at 8/13 (1.62) in general.

Elsewhere, Ladbrokes and PartyBets will double your money if the
game goes to form with Tottenham winning and there being Over 2.5
Goals in the game...

Liverpool v Hull

Sat 26th Sept, 3pm
Ref: P.Walton

Liverpool have won 5 games in a row in all competitions, including
their last 3 Premier League games. Hull have lost 3 in a row (2 in
the league).

The Reds have a 100% record for Over 2.5 Goals bets this season - 6
out of 6 games going 'Over.' In fact, 5 out of 6 games have gone
Over 3.5 Goals, and games at Anfield are averaging 4 goals per game.

• There were 4 goals in both games between these sides last
  season - 2-2 at Anfield and a 3-1 away win for Liverpool at Hull

Liverpool are short odds-on to win the game at just 1/6 (1.17), and
the bookies are also taking no chances in the goals markets,
offering just 8/15 (1.53) for Over 2.5 Goals. However better value
can be found by looking at the Corners stats...

• All 3 of Liverpool's home games - and 5 from 6 games overall -
  have been Over 10.5 Corners this season

• 5 out of 6 Hull games have also paid out on Over 10.5 Corners
  bets

• Both games between Hull and Liverpool went Over 10.5 Corners
  last season

Bets on Over 11 Corners are the most common with the bookies - and
the stats support that option well too...

There have been at least 12 corners in all Liverpool's home games so
far, with an average total of 14 corners per game. Hull away games
are averaging 13.3 corners.

Sunderland v Wolves

Sun 27th Sept, 4pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: L.Mason

The early-season stats mark this game out as a good match-up in the
Time of First Goal market...

Here are the First Goal Times from Sunderland's 6 games so far: 5
mins, 13 mins, 43 mins, 21 mins, 18 mins and 13 mins.

• All 3 of Sunderland's home games have seen the First Goal
  scored before 22 minutes.

The bookies' usual First Goal Time bet is 'Before' or 'After' the
27th minute. The 'Before' option has paid out a winner in 5 out of 6
Sunderland games overall this season.

Here are the figures for Wolves. First Goal scored on: 19 mins, 17
mins, 6 mins, 18 mins, 3 mins and 22 mins.

• In all 6 (100%) of Wolves' games this season the First Goal
  has been scored before 23 minutes

The data on our website shows the average First Goal Time in
Sunderland games this season is 18 minutes. The average First Goal
time is Wolves' away games 14 minutes.

Both teams have exceptional 'early goal' records so far - and
bookies will let you bet on the First Goal coming within the first
half-hour on Sunday.

And sticking with the 'First Goal' stats for Sunderland v Wolves...

Darren Bent:

Bent is joint-2nd in the Premier League Top Scorer chart with 5
goals from 6 games so far. And 3 of his goals have been the 'First
Goal' of the game.

• Bets on Bent to be the 'First Goalscorer' have paid out a
  winner in 2 out of 3 Sunderland home games.

Considering Sunderland are at home, are the favourites to win the
game and the odds-on 1/2 favourites to score first - the odds on
offer for their star striker to open the scoring look good value...

• Darren Bent is 9/2 (5.50) to be the 'First Goalscorer' with
  William Hill, Victor Chandler, Betfred, Boylesports and Totesport.

Check here for the best odds on the First Goalscorer:

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

Bent is also available at Evens+ across the board 'To Score at
Anytime' - best price 11/8 (2.38) with Boylesports.

Goal Machine - Cash-in on these 100% trends this
weekend

There are a handful of teams with 100% trends - bets that have won
in every game so far...

You won't get great prices about them as individual bets. But rolled
up in to trebles, accumulators or a multiple (such as a 'Yankee')
they offer big odds payouts...

These 5 are all well-starred by the stats:

• Birmingham v Bolton - UNDER 2.5 Goals @ 8/13

Birmingham's home games have been 1-0, 0-0 and 0-1 so far.

• Tottenham v Burnley - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 8/13

8 out of 8 Spurs games in all competitions have gone Over 2.5 Goals
this season.

• Liverpool v Hull - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 8/15

100% of Liverpool games have paid out on this bet so far.

• Fulham v Arsenal - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 5/6

Over 2.5 Goals bets have won in 100% of Arsenal games.

• CHELSEA to beat Wigan @ 1/3

Chelsea have won 6 out of 6 Premier League games and 8 out of 8 in
all competitions.

Boost your odds...

A 5-fold accumulator on those outcomes pays around 17/2 (9.50) with
Paddy Power, Skybet and Bet365.

A 4-fold acca on Tottenham-Burnley Over 2.5, Liverpool-Hull Over
2.5, Birmingham-Bolton Under 2.5 and Chelsea to win pays over 4/1.

And at 17/1...

Portsmouth have got a 100% record they won't be happy about -
they've lost 6 out of 6 games and are bottom of the Premier League.
Everton have won 3 games in a row in all competitions (without
conceding a single goal) and are Evens to win at Portsmouth this
weekend...

Add Everton to win to the above acca to make it a 6-fold and the
odds are doubled - taking it to a hefty 17/1.

Find the best odds on all this weekend's games here

For a Head-2-Head guide to all this weekend's games - with team
stats on Form, Corners, Goals and Booking Points, plus Top Scorers -
check out our FBD members-only website:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: ******

I'll write to you again on Monday with the latest stats and results
- and a look at the Man City v West Ham game...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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