How to cash-in on Chelsea v Liverpool this weekend

Friday 2nd October 2009

In your FBD weekend preview today:

• Monday's winners...
  
• Bets for the weekend - standout stats for 5 games...
  
• The Goal Machine - cash-in with a 9/2 treble...

The stats have already given us a winner this week - and there are
10 more games to cash-in on over the weekend...

Monday's result - Man City 3 West Ham 1

There were 16 corners in Monday night's game at Eastlands, meaning
the Over 10.5 and Over 11 Corners bets I highlighted in your last
email were both winners.

I also mentioned a way to 'boost your odds' - Over 11 Corners in a
double with Man City to win - and that came in too, at around 13/8.

Your bets for the weekend...

Now for this weekend's action - including a look at the stats for
the big match between Chelsea and Liverpool on Sunday.

Chelsea v Liverpool

Sun 4th October, 4pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Atkinson

In recent seasons these teams have met stacks of times in the
league, Cups and in the Champions League (FIVE seasons running) -
and the trend has been for low-scoring games with low Corner
totals.

No surprise then that the bookies are expecting Sunday's game to be
a low scoring affair - based largely on the teams' recent
meetings...

Since the 2004/5 season (Jose Mourinho's first season in charge)
90% (9/10) of Premier League matches between these two sides have
gone Under 2.5 Goals.

Some bookies are as short as 8/11 for Sunday's game to go 'Under'
again. But if we look at both teams' stats this season, they tell a
different story...

• 6 out of 7 (85%) of Chelsea's games this season have gone
  Over 2.5 Goals. 

• All 7 (100%) of Liverpool's games this season have gone Over
  2.5 Goals.

Chelsea's home game are averaging 3.0 goals per game and
Liverpool's away figure stands at a high 4.3 goals right now.
Liverpool are conceding an average of 2 goals per away game
(compared to just 0.7 last season).

You can get Even Money or better for Sunday's game to go Over 2.5
Goals - and that looks much better value than the 'Under' options.

Corners

Chelsea-Liverpool games also have a history of going Under 10.5
Corners - but again this season the formbook shows bets on the
'Over' option are paying out much more often...

In 2008/9 both teams' games averaged less than 10.5 total corners.
So far this season both teams' games are averaging OVER 10.5
Corners - with that bet paying out in 100% of Chelsea games (7 out
of 7) and 6 out of 7 Liverpool games.

• Bookies will put up their Total Corners markets between now
  and kick off. At the time of writing Extrabet offer Evens for Over
  11.5 Corners. Check with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet,
  Expekt, Stan James and Blue Square over the weekend for more
  options.
  

Wolves v Portsmouth

Sat 3rd October, 3pm
Ref: H.Webb

Both teams have low Bookings records so far this season...

Wolves' home games are averaging just 10 Booking Points (eg. 1
yellow card) and Portsmouth's away total is 16.7 Pts.

• Wolves have yet to pick up a single yellow card at Molineux
  (zero Booking Pts 'For')

• 3 out of 3 Wolves games have paid out on both Under 3.5 Cards
  AND lower Under 25 Booking Points bets

And those low trends are consistent for both teams overall in the
Premier League this season - 6 out of 7 Wolves games (85%) have
gone Under 3.5 Cards / Under 35.5 Pts. And 5 of 7 Portsmouth
Premier League games (71%) have also gone 'Under.'

Howard Webb is the Referee for this one. Last season he averaged
almost exactly '3.5 Cards per Game' - and so far in 2009/10 he has
taken charge of 5 Premier League games, with 4 of them paying out a
winner on Under 3.5 Cards.

The stats make this one a great match-up for an 'Under' Cards or
Booking Points bet. The game's not live on Sky TV though, so only a
few bookies will be putting markets up.

Check first with Bet365 for an Under 3.5 Cards bet. Coral and
Partybets may go up with bigger odds for the lower Under 25 Booking
Points option over the weekend.

Burnley v Birmingham

Sat 3rd Oct, 3pm
Ref: K.Friend

Last weekend Burnley's away stats gave us a winner - 'Tottenham to
win with 3 or more goals scored' at Evens (Spurs won 5-0). But this
weekend the tables are turned...

Burnley have won all their home games so far, and both teams have
low Goals records - 2 from 3 Burnley home games have gone Under 2.5
Goals and 71% of all Birmingham's league games have also gone
'Under.'

Here are both teams' home / away results so far:

Burnley 1 Man Utd 0
Burnley 1 Everton 0
Burnley 3 Sunderland 1

Man Utd 1 Birmingham 0
Tottenham 2 Birmingham 1
Hull 0 Birmingham 1

• Apart from Burnley, only Premier League big boys Man Utd,
  Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City have 100% home records so far.

With that in mind - along with the fact that Birmingham's only away
points so far came against fellow relegation candidates Hull - odds
of around 7/5 (2.40) for Burnley to win look decent value. That
certainly looks better than 4/6 (1.67) for Under 2.5 Goals.

• The 1-0 score-line features 3 times in the 6 results listed
  above. That's a 'Correct Score' trend to watch for this season from
  these two low-scoring teams. Burnley are 7/1 with Ladbrokes to win
  1-0 on Saturday.

• Also worth knowing - Birmingham have lost 4 games in total so
  far, and have been beaten by a 1-goal 'Winning Margin' each time.
  While 2 of Burnley's 3 wins have been by exactly 1 goal. Burnley
  are 3/1 with Blue Square to win by 1 goal.

Hull v Wigan

Sat 3rd Oct, 3pm
Ref: M.Clattenburg

Hull are second-bottom of the table and have lost their last 3
games in a row - by an aggregate score of 11-2. That's relegation
form (the bookies make them just 1/2 for the drop).

Wigan are smack bang in the middle of the table in 10th place - and
have won 2 of their last 3 games, including a famous 3-1 home win
over high-flying Chelsea last weekend.

Our Head-2-Head guide for this game (see our website) puts Wigan
ahead on Possession, Shots and Shots on Target. That's a good sign
for the away team - and last season's results back the stats up
well...

Last season Wigan did the double over Hull, beating them 1-0 at
home - and thumping them 5-0 away at Hull.

The stats and form point to Wigan here. They are 8/5 (2.60) to win
with Bet365, Blue Square and Totesport. And in the Draw No Bet
market you can back Wigan at around 5/6 (1.83) - an option that
means you can only lose out if Hull win.

Man Utd v Sunderland

Sat 3rd Oct, 5.30pm
Live on ESPN
Ref: A.Wiley

Man Utd beat Mark Hughes' Man City side 4-3 in their last home game
- and this weekend another ex Old Trafford player faces up against
Sir Alex. Steve Bruce's Sunderland are the visitors - and they have
some strong Bookings trends...

• In 85% (6 out of 7) of Manchester United games this season
  their opponents have received the First Card.

• In 71% (5 out of 7) of their games this season Sunderland
  have received the First Card.

Man Utd haven't got the First Card in any of their opening 3 games
at Old Trafford. Last season's results show United got the First
Card in just 36% of home games while Sunderland were first in the
Referee's book in over half of away games (57%).

On overall Booking Points, the Head-2-Head on our website shows
United's opponents average more bookings than them, while
Sunderland average the most bookings per away game - by more than
10 pts (eg. 1 yellow card+).

Last season's stats also show Man Utd had less Booking Points 'For'
than 'Against' at home, and it was vice versa for Sunderland away.

In most cases the away team is the favourite to get the First Card
and Most Bookings at Old Trafford - and Sunderland's strong First
Card trend in particular makes that the standout bet for Saturday's
night's live game.

• Also available - Sunderland to get the Most Booking Points at
  4/5 (1.80) with Blue Square and 888 Sport.
  

The Goal Machine

Here are our pick of the Under / Over Goals stats from this
weekend's fixture list...

Arsenal v Blackburn - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 4/7+
Paid out in all Arsenal home games and Blackburn away games so far.
Both games had 4 goals in them last season. 83% of all Arsenal's
Premier League games have gone 'Over' this season.

Bolton v Tottenham - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 8/11+
Spurs have 100% record for Over 2.5 Goals bets this season - 7
games out of 7. And Bolton games averaging 2.8 goals per game.

• A Double on those two 'Over' bets pays around 17/10 or better
  (2.70+) with Skybet and Bet365.

• Add in the same 'Over' bet for Chelsea v Liverpool at Evens+
  (see above) and the Treble on these 3 games all going Over 2.5
  Goals pays out at over 9/2 (5.50+) with the same bookies.

You can find the best odds on all bets for this weekend's Premier
League games here...

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/
round-8/

Enjoy the weekend's games - and best of luck with all your bets.
For a full Head-2-Head guide for every game, log in at the
website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: ******

I'll write to you again on Monday with the latest results - and a
look at the Villa v City game...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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