Corner a winner at Villa Park tonight

Monday 5th October

In your FBD update today:

• Goals galore at Arsenal and Bolton...
  
• Last week's results
  
• 22/1 Top Scorer bet looking good...
  
• Corner a winner at Villa Park tonight...

It was another action-packed weekend in the Premier League...

There were plenty of goals about, with three 2-2 draws (after a
recent lack draws in the Premier League!), and Arsenal dished out a
6-2 hammering to Blackburn at The Emirates.

Every Arsenal home game and Blackburn away game have paid out on
Over 2.5 Goals bets so far this season. And after their 2-2 draw at
Bolton on Saturday, Tottenham keep up their 100% Over 2.5 Goals
record - 8 games out of 8 and counting...

• I mentioned those two Over 2.5 Goals bets in our 'Goal
  Machine' double in Friday's email. That paid out a winner at 17/10.

However the Chelsea-Liverpool game fell a goal short of the total
we needed to land a 9/2 treble and make it a good weekend overall.
Here are the stats and results from the games I looked at in
Friday's email.

Last week's results

Chelsea 2 Liverpool 0

Total Goals = 2.

FBD said:

• 'Over 2.5 Goals' @ 11/10 - LOST

Liverpool kept up their away average of conceding 2 goals per game
this season - but couldn't find the back of the net themselves.
Yossi Benayoun missed a sitter in the last minute that could have
made it 2-1.

• I also mentioned the 'high Corners' trends of both teams so
  far this season. There were 13 corners on Sunday - Over 11.5
  Corners bets paid out at Evens.

Wolves 0 Portsmouth 1

Total Cards = 3 yellows
Total Booking Points = 30 pts.

FBD said:

• 'Under 3.5 Cards' @ 8/11 - WON

After 7 defeats in a row, Pompey got their first win of the season.
The Bookings went to form - 7 out of 8 Wolves games have now paid
out on the Under 3.5 Cards option.

Burnley 2 Birmingham 1

FBD said:

• Burnley to beat Birmingham @ 7/5 - WON

Burnley keep up their impressive 100% home record - that's 4 wins
out of 4 at Turf Moor now.

• I also highlighted the Correct Score and Winning Margin stats
  for this game. Burnley 1-0 missed the mark, but Burnley to win by
  exactly 1 goal paid out at 3/1.

Hull 2 Wigan 1

FBD said:

• Wigan 'Draw No Bet' @ 5/6 - LOST

Wigan had been on a good run of form in recent weeks and Hull had
been struggling - but the home team got a much needed win here.

Man Utd 2 Sunderland 2

First Card = Man Utd (P.Scholes)

FBD said:

• Sunderland to get the First Card @ 8/13 - LOST

Sunderland got the Most Booking Points (a 4/5 bet), 55 points to
20. But Man Utd's Paul Scholes bucked the First Card stats, going
in the Referee's book first for the home team. Scholes is United's
most booked player with 4 yellow cards and one sending off already
this season.

22/1 Bent scores again...

That game at Old Trafford had some good news for us on the Top
Scorer front - Darren Bent scored yet again. He's got 7 league
goals now. Bent is one of our recommended Top Scorer Handicap bets
from the special report I sent you at the start of the season.

• Bent was 22/1 each way with a +11 Goals Handicap at Paddy
  Power. That gives him a current total of 18 - which puts him top of
  the chart ahead of all the other listed players.

Check out my Top Scorer report here:

http://www.footballoffer.co.uk/pdf/fbdtopscorers0910download.pdf

The Premier League takes a week's break for the World Cup
Qualifiers this weekend. But before then there's a live TV game to
pay attention to - Villa v City live on ESPN at 8pm tonight...

Aston Villa v Man City

TONIGHT - Mon 5th Oct, 8pm
Live on ESPN
Ref: M.Dean

Aston Villa are 8th in the table and Man City are 6th - and the
bookies' odds show how close this one looks to call. However it's
the Corners stats that stand out for me...

Total Corners

• 5 out of 6 Villa games have had at least 10 corners this
  season

• And 5 out of 6 Man City games have also had at least 10
  corners

In a quirk of the stats, Villa and City have exactly the same Total
Corners average on our Head-2-Head (home v away) - 11.7 Corners.

Villa were one of our top 'high Corners' teams last season - 73% of
all games (from 38 games' worth of 2008/9 form) went Over 10.5
Corners. With games averaging over 13 corners home and away.

Last season there were 11 corners when City played Villa in
Manchester and 15 corners in the reverse fixture at Villa Park.

• Over 10.5 Corners is 8/15 (1.53) with Stan James and 1/2
  (1.50) with Expekt.

Other bookies will offer you bigger prices for higher totals -
'Over 11' is 4/5 (1.80) with Blue Square and 'Over 12' is 6/5
(2.20) with William Hill and Coral.

Corner Handicap

The stats show the home team are the one to follow in the 'Corner
Handicap' and 'Team to Win the Most Corners' markets...

• Villa won the most corners in 63% of home games last season

• Villa have won most corners in 2 out of 3 home games so far
  this season

• City only won most corners in 31% of away games last season

• City have only won most corners in 2 out of 6 games overall
  this season

In their last home game Villa won the corner count v Portsmouth, 7-
5. While City were out-cornered 11-1 at Man Utd in their most
recent away game.

Villa are as short as 4/6 (1.67) with Paddy Power to win the most
corners tonight. But at Stan James you can get the same bet on
Villa at 11/10 (2.10). That looks good value for the home team -
with the superior stats - to win the most corners tonight.

A quick note on the Goalscorer markets tonight...

Agbonlahor vs. Adebayor!

Two of the Premier League's hottest strikers are on show this
evening. Gabriel Agbonlahor has scored in his last 4 league games
in a row - and in 5 consecutive games in all competitions for
Villa. If he scores again tonight he'll set a new league record for
Villa.

Emmanuel Adebayor returns from suspension for City. He has scored 4
goals in 4 Premier League games so far this season.

Both players have been the First Goalscorer on 3 occasions so far
this season.

• Agbonlahor is 7/1 with Blue Square and 888 Sport to be First
  Goalscorer tonight. Adebayor is 6/1 with Ladbrokes and William
  Hill.

• Both players are 2/1 each with Coral to Score in 90 Minutes
  (Anytime Scorer)

You can find the best odds on any bet on tonight's game here:

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

For a full Head-2-Head breakdown on all the stats for tonight's
game, head to our website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: ******

I'll write to you again on Friday with a look at some of the top
stats and trends that are paying out so far this season...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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