Tomorrow lunchtime - 2 ways to win on Villa v Chelsea

Friday 16th October

In your FBD weekend preview today:

• Cash-in on Villa v Chelsea tomorrow...
  
• Double up on Man Utd...
  
• The Goal Machine - go for a 7/2 Treble...
  
• Get the 'Top Trends' for all 20 teams!

This weekend's big live game is at Villa Park on Saturday
lunchtime...

I've got two bets for you on the Villa v Chelsea game - plus 3 more
recommended bets in what looks like a good weekend 'on the stats.'
There are plenty of good match-ups on our Head-2-Head pages and
I've included the pick of them for you below.

To view all the stats Head-2-Heads for every game this weekend, log
in at our website:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk     Password: ******

Let's start our weekend preview at Villa Park.

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Sat 17th Oct, 12.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: S. Bennett

This looks like the pick of the weekend's live games - league
leaders Chelsea travel to Villa Park looking for their 8th win in 9
games.

The Corners stats stand out for this one, and the good news is that
seeing as the game is on Sky Sports plenty of bookies will be
offering bets...

• 71% (5/7) of Aston Villa's games this season have gone Over
  10.5 Corners.

• 100% (8/8) of Chelsea's games this season have gone Over 10.5
  Corners.

Those figures include 3 from 4 Villa home games that have had at
least 12 corners. All 4 Chelsea away games have had at least 11
corners.

The Head-2-Head figures on our website shows games at Villa Park
are averaging 11.8 Total Corners so far this season - and Chelsea's
away games are averaging 13.8.

• Last season there were a high 18 corners in this fixture
  (Chelsea won 1-0, with 12 corners to Villa's 6).

Different bookies offer different 'Under or Over' lines for Total
Corners bets. Here are some of the options available at the time of
writing (Friday AM)...

• Over 10.5 Corners @ 8/13 (1.62) with Stan James - needs 11
  corners to win

• Over 11.5 Corners @ 5/6 (1.83) with Extrabet - needs 12 to
  win

• Over 12 Corners @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365 - needs 13 to win

Bet365, Coral and William Hill are all betting 'Over 12 Corners' at
around 6/5 - that needs 13 or more corners to win. The slightly
lower totals are better supported by the stats - with the best
option on offer at Stan James...

Corner Handicap

The stats also point to Chelsea getting the most corners in this
game. They have won the Most Corners in 7 out of 8 Premier League
games so far, and in all 4 of their away games. In each game where
they've won the most corners, Chelsea have got at least 3 more than
their opponent - enough to cover a '-2 Corner Handicap.'

• In the two games last season, Chelsea got the most corners 7-
  1 at home and 12-6 away.  
  

Blackburn v Burnley

Sun 18th Oct, 1pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: C. Foy

Blackburn lost their first home game of the season to Man City. But
since then they're unbeaten at Ewood Park, and have won their last
2 - beating Wolves 3-1 and Aston Villa 2-1.

Burnley have got contrasting home and away form so far. They've won
4 out of 4 games at Turf Moor - but lost 4 out of 4 away from home.
Their away Goals figures are 0 Goals For and 14 Goals Against -
Burnley have lost every away game 'To Nil' and are conceding an
average of 3.5 Goals per away game.

The Form stats on our site show Blackburn are averaging 17 Shots
For per home game with 5.5 On Target. While Burnley are conceding
23 Shots, with 11 of them On Target.

Those figures - and both teams' home v away form - point to a home win
this weekend.

Man Utd v Bolton

Sat 17th Oct, 3pm
Ref: M.Clatteburg

Man Utd are short odds-on at 1/4 (1.25) to beat Bolton. The
reigning Premier League champs are 2nd in the table and Bolton are
13th. It's hard to argue against a home win here - and you can
boost your odds by combining 'Man Utd to win' in a Double with a
bet on the Corners...

• 100% of Man Utd home games and Bolton away games have had at
  least 11 corners in them. With both teams' games averaging 13.3
  Total Corners per game

• 71% of all Man Utd's games have gone Over 10.5 Corners so far

• 85% of all Bolton's games have also gone Over 10.5 Corners

• There were a whopping 20 corners in this fixture last season
  (a game Man Utd won 2-0)

A 'Double' on Man Utd to win and an 'Over' bet on the Total Corners
will pay around 7/5 with the bookies - check with Bet365.

• Man Utd are 1/4 (1.25) to beat Bolton with Bet365.

• 'Asian Total Corners - Over 12' is 1.97 with Bet365. That
  Corners bet wins if there are 13 or more corners in the game, and
  is 'void' if there are exactly 12.

Sunderland v Liverpool

Sat 17th Oct, 3pm
Ref: M.Jones

Both teams have got strong 'high goals' stats so far this season...

Sunderland home games are averaging a high 4.8 goals per game, and
Liverpool's away figure is 3.8 goals - well clear of the bookies'
usual Under or Over 2.5 Goals line.

• 100% of Sunderland games at the Stadium of Light have paid
  out on Over 2.5 Goals bets (4 out of 4)

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out a winner in 3 from 4
  Liverpool away games, and in 7 out of 8 Premier League games
  overall

Sunderland have only kept a 'Clean Sheet' in one of their 8 games
so far. And Liverpool have conceded 2 goals in all of their away
games.

The stats suggest there will be more goals this weekend. And the
Premier League's two Top Scorers should also be on show - Fernando
Torres (Liverpool, 8 goals) and Darren Bent (Sunderland, 7 goals).

The Goal Machine

As well as the Sunderland v Liverpool game, there are two more
match-ups that stand out for Over / Under Goals bets this weekend.
You could boost your profits by combining them in doubles or a
treble...

Arsenal v Birmingham - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 4/9+
Arsenal home games are averaging 5.7 total goals (!) and 100% have
paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets so far.

Stoke v West Ham - UNDER 2.5 Goals @ 4/6+
Stoke home games averaging 2.0 total goals per game and West Ham's
away figure is just 1.80. Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 75%
of both teams' games.

• The Double on those two games pays around 7/5 (2.40+) with
  Bet365 and Skybet

• Those two games plus Sunderland v Liverpool 'Over 2.5 Goals'
  pays just under 7/2 (4.46 at Bet365) in a Treble

Find the best odds on all your bets here...

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

Get the 'Top Trends' for all 20 teams!
 
With a fifth of the Premier League season gone there are already
some 'top trends' on show - bets paying out in 71%, 85% and even
100% of games for certain teams...

I've rounded up the top bets for all 20 teams so far in a special
report for you - download our early-season Top Trends list here:

http://www.footballoffer.co.uk/pdf/fbdtoptrends.pdf

Good luck with all your bets this weekend - I'll write to you again
on Monday with the latest results.

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: ******

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