Liverpool v Man Utd - Go 'Over' at Anfield this weekend

Friday 23rd October 2009

In your FBD weekend preview today:

• Liverpool v Man Utd - cash-in with these two 'Over' bets...
  
• Your top 6 Premier League bets for the weekend...
  
• The Goal Machine - go for goals at 17/2!

There's a cracking weekend of Premier League action lined up - with
4 live games - including one of the biggest games on the football
calendar...

It's Liverpool v Man Utd on Sunday afternoon! It's a massive game at
any time - but with United top of the league and Liverpool on a run
of 4 defeats in a row, the pressure's really on in this one. Kick
off 2pm Sunday - read on for my match preview and bet selections.

Plus - I'm looking at two local derbies, both live on TV - Wolves v
Villa and West Ham v Arsenal. And the stats have also highlighted a
7/2 Treble on three 'Over 2.5 Goals' games over the weekend.

We'll start with the Midlands derby...

Wolves v Aston Villa

Sat 24th Oct, 12.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: P.Walton

This Midlands derby sees Wolves - who are 16th in the league - take
on Villa, who are 6th. These two haven't met in the Premier League
since the 2003/4 season - and a look at the history books shows
Wolves haven't beaten Villa since way back in 1980.

No surprise then that the bookies favour the away team in the Match
Result market (Villa are 11/10 to win). But the stats suggest
Wolves are the team to follow in the Corners betting...

The early season data on our website shows Wolves have a +2.3
corners margin at home so far - winning on average 2 or more corner
kicks than opponents. Villa's away corners margin is minus 4.3.

Those figures are backed up by results so far:

• Wolves have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 games at
  Molineux
  
• Wolves have only been out-cornered in 2 out of 8 games
  overall
  
  
• Villa have been out-cornered in 3 out of 3 away games
  
• Villa have only won the Most Corners in 2 out of 8 games
  overall

The stats show Wolves have been more than holding their own when it
comes to winning corners - they are averaging 6 or more Corners For
in both home and away games. Villa are conceding plenty of corners
this season - with 6 per home game and 7.7 Corners Against per away
game.

Bets on Wolves to win the 'Corners Match Bet' or Wolves with a '-
0.5 Corner Handicap' will pay out if they win just one corner more
than Villa.

William Hill are the only bookie with Corner Handicap prices up this
morning. But this game is live on TV so plenty more bets will be
available over the weekend - check also with Bet365, Skybet,
Betfred, Stan James, Paddy Power and Expekt. And check with Blue
Square and 888 Sport for bets on Wolves to win the 'Corners Match
Bet.'

Burnley v Wigan

Sat 24th Oct, 3pm
Ref: L.Mason

Burnley are 10th in the table, thanks entirely to the 12 points
they've earned by winning 4 out of 4 home games (they've lost all 5
away games). Wigan are 14th - they've won one and lost 3 away from
home so far.

The Booking Points stats point to the away team here...

• Burnley have only picked up 3 yellow cards at Turf Moor so far
  - an average of less than one per game. Helping all 4 of their home
  games go Under 35 Booking Points. Burnley have only got the Most
  Booking Points in one of those games.

• Wigan on the other hand have picked up at least 2 yellow cards
  (20 pts) in all 4 of their away games. 75% of their games have gone
  Over 35 Booking Points. And Wigan's opponents haven't got the Most
  Booking Points in any of those games.

Burnley are averaging just 7.5 Booking Points For at home - Wigan's
away average is 30 Points For.

The good news is that William Hill now offer 'stats' bets like Most
Booking Points - as well as Total Bookings, Total Corners and
Corner Handicaps - for all Premier League games, not just the ones
that are live on TV. They've got 67 markets available for all 10
games this weekend!

Wigan are Evens to get the Most Booking Points in Saturday's game.

Hull v Portsmouth

Sat 24th Oct, 3pm
Ref: S.Atwell

This one has got 'relegation battle' written all over it - even at
this early stage of the season. Both teams are in the bottom 3 of
the Premier League table, and both are odds-on with the bookies to
be Relegated.

The recent form paints both teams in a poor light - they've both
lost 4 of their last 5 games. Hull lost 2-0 at Fulham on Monday
night. While last weekend Portsmouth were narrowly beaten at home,
2-1 by high-flying Tottenham.

However there are signs that Portsmouth aren't playing as badly as
results would suggest...

The Head-2-Head Form stats on our site show Hull at home and
Portsmouth away match-up closely on Shots For and Against figures -
with no advantage to the home team. And Pompey are slightly ahead on
Possession with an average of 45% for away games (Hull's home figure
is just 39%).

Portsmouth won their most recent away game (1-0 at Wolves), and they
have only been narrowly defeated in the majority of games they've
lost this season - losing by just one goal on 6 out of 8 occasions.

Portsmouth look the value here. At Totesport they are 19/10 (2.90)
to win. And they can be backed at Evens+ across the board in the
Draw No Bet market - a bet that pays out if Portsmouth win, and will
give you your money back if it's a draw.

Also available - Portsmouth '0 Asian Handicap' at 11/10 (2.10) with
Victor Chandler is the same as backing Portsmouth on the Draw No
Bet. Check here for the best '0 Asian Handicap' odds:

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

West Ham v Arsenal

Sun 25th Oct, 4.15pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: S.Bennett

West Ham are second-bottom of the Premier League and haven't won
since the first day of the season. Arsenal are 4th in the table and
have won their last 4 games in a row.

Arsenal are odds-on at for an away win here, at 8/15 (1.53).
However you can boost your odds by combining that bet with the
Total Goals...

• All 3 of West Ham's home games this season - and 7 out of 8
  Arsenal games - have seen 3 or more goals scored.

Games are Upton Park are averaging 4.0 total goals so far. Arsenal
away games are averaging 4.3 goals per game. Those are high figures.

In relation to the Match Result market, a 'high Goals' bet matches
up well:

• In 4 of the 5 games that West Ham have lost, there have been
  Over 2.5 Goals

• 5 out of 6 Arsenal wins have also landed bets on Over 2.5
  Goals

Over 2.5 Goals is a best-price 7/10 (1.70) with Bet365 and Blue
Square.

Ladbrokes offer a special double on the two standout bets for this
game - Arsenal to win and Over 2.5 Goals in their 'Quatro' market -
at odds of 13/10 (2.30).

And now for a look at the big game at Anfield...

Liverpool v Man Utd

Sun 25th Oct, 2pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: A.Marriner

Last year Liverpool did the double over Man Utd, home and away - but
their Manchester rivals still came out on top and won the Premier
League title. This season United are already 7 points ahead of
Liverpool and top of the table. Liverpool are down in 8th and have
lost their last 4 games in a row in all competitions.

The Goals and Corners stats standout for Sunday's game...

Goals

• 7 of Liverpool's 9 Premier League games have gone 'Over 2.5
  Goals' this season

• 6 of Man United's 9 games have gone 'Over 2.5 Goals'.

Liverpool games this season have been producing an average of 3.8
goals per game. Man Utd games have been producing 3.3 goals per
game.

There's a history of 'low-scoring' games between the Premier
Leagues 'Big 4' teams - but the last 3 Premier League meetings
between Liverpool and Man Utd have all gone Over 2.5 Goals,
including the game at Anfield last season (2-1).

Both teams had strong defensive records last season. But so far this
season, both teams have been struggling to keep opponents out -
Liverpool have only kept 2 'Clean Sheets' in 9 games and Man Utd
have only stopped their opponent from scoring in 3 out of 9 games.

After missing their teams' Champions League games midweek, Liverpool
and Man Utd's star strikers are due back for this game. Fernando
Torres is the Premier League's joint-top scorer with 8 goals - and
Wayne Rooney has 6 to his name so far.

Over 2.5 Goals is available at Evens+ this weekend, and that looks
decent value.

Corners

Bets on Over 10.5 Corners have paid out in the majority of both
teams' games this season...

• 7 out of Liverpool's 9 games have gone Over 10.5 Corners

• 7 out of Man Utd's 9 games have gone Over 10.5 Corners

Liverpool games are producing a Total Corners average of 12.5
overall this season. United games are producing 12.3 corners per
game.

The home / away data on our Head-2-Head shows both teams have high
'Corners For' figures - a good sign for an 'Over' bet on the Total
Corners. Liverpool are averaging 10.3 Corners For at home and Man
Utd's away figure is 8.5 Corners For.

At the time of writing only a couple of bookies have got their
Total Corners markets up. The best option right now is Over 10.5
Corners at 7/10 with Extrabet - but check too for that bet with Stan
James later today.

Other Corners bets will be available with all the top bookies over
the weekend - including William Hill, Coral, Bet365, Paddy Power,
Blue Square, Betfred and Skybet.

The Goal Machine

The stats say we should be looking for goals in the following games
this weekend...

You'll get odds of 7/2 and bigger for Trebles and multiple bets
featuring 'Over 2.5 Goals' in all these games.

Tottenham v Stoke - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 8/13+
100% of Spurs games have paid out on this bet so far - and both
games against Stoke went 'Over' last season.

Chelsea v Blackburn - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 8/13+
So far this season 100% of Blackburn away games - and 77% of all
Chelsea games - have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

West Ham v Arsenal - OVER 2.5 Goals @ 7/10+
All 3 of West Ham's home games this season - and 7 out of 8 Arsenal
games - have seen 3 or more goals scored.

• The Treble on those three games all going 'Over 2.5 Goals'
  pays around 7/2 with Bet365 (4.50+).

• Add in the other 'Over' bet I've mentioned today - Liverpool v
  Man Utd to be Over 2.5 Goals - and you'll get over 17/2 (9.50+) for
  the four-fold accumulator.

Check here for the best odds on all this weekend's Premier League
games...

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Remember you can get a
full Head-2-Head stats breakdown for every Premier League game at
our website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk           

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I'll write to you again on Monday with all the latest stats and
results.

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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