This weekend - 10 ways to cash-in on the Premier League

Friday 20th November 2009.

In your Football Betting Data weekend preview today:

• Bets for the weekend...
  
• Cash-in on Corners and Goals in the live games...
  
• Top Trends report - the season so far...
  
• Bookies offer more Premier League bets than ever...

The World Cup play-offs are done and dusted - now we're back to the
Premier League...

Every team's in action this weekend - with live TV games including
Liverpool v Man City, Man Utd v Everton and Bolton v Blackburn. Read
on for bets on all those games and more.

Plus - remember you can find the standout stats for every game on
the Head-2-Head pages at our website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

And you can read my summary of the bets that have paid out most
often on every team so far in my Top Trends report:

http://www.footballoffer.co.uk/pdf/fbd/toptrends20nov09.pdf

Bets for the weekend...

The lunchtime kick off is at Anfield...

Liverpool v Man City

Sat 21st Nov, 12.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: P.Dowd

Both teams have struggled for form recently. Liverpool are 17th in
the Premier League's 'Form Guide' table having lost 3 and drawn 1 of
their last 6 games. Man City have only won 1 of their last 6 games.
They've become the Premier League's draw specialists - drawing their
last 5 games in a row.

Given the shaky form on show the Match Result betting looks best
left alone. The Corners stats highlight a much more reliable bet...

• 83% of Liverpool home games have had Over 10.5 Corners

• 83% of Man City away games have had Over 10.5 Corners

Liverpool have an excellent Corners For record - on average they are
winning 9.5 corners per game at Anfield. With figures like that, it
doesn't take much for the away team to take the total in to double
figures.

And Man City are our top-rated 'high Corners' team so far this
season - there have been at least 11 corners in 10 of their 11
Premier League games. That's a high 91% strike rate for bets on Over
10.5 Corners.

Liverpool won 11 corners on their own in their last game - a 2-2
home draw with Birmingham. This one looks a good match-up for
another 'Over' total.

Different bookies offer different Under / Over bets for Total
Corners. Options available for this game include:

Over 10.5 Corners @ 8/13 with Stan James - needs 11+ corners to win.
Over 11.5 Corners @ 5/6 with Extrabet - needs 12+ corners to win.
Over 12 Corners @ 11/8 with Coral - needs 13+ corners to win.

Also...

William Hill are offering a market on Liverpool Total Corners, where
you can bet that the Reds get 'Over 6' corners. Liverpool are
averaging 9.5 Corners For per home game and that bet would've won in
5 out of 6 games so far.

Manchester Utd v Everton

Sat 21st Nov, 5.30pm
Live on ESPN
Ref: S.Bennett

Man Utd have won 5 out of 6 home games so far, and last season they
won 16 out of 19 at Old Trafford. No surprise then that they're
odds-on at just 2/5 for another home win this weekend. Everton's
away record is won 2 lost 3 this season.

United may be odds-on to win, but the stats highlight another bet on
Man Utd available at much bigger odds of 5/2 - that is paying out
almost as often...

• 4 of Man Utd's 5 home wins have been by a Winning Margin of
  Exactly 1 Goal

• Everton have lost 3 away games - all of them by Exactly 1
  Goal. Last season 3 of their 4 away defeats by were also by Exactly
  1 Goal

The Head-2-Head data on our site shows Man Utd are averaging 1 goal
more than opponents at Old Trafford this season - 2.2 Goals For and
1.2 Goals Against.

Those figures show Man Utd are getting the wins - but not by big
margins. And there's a history of close games between Man Utd and
Everton in recent seasons, with United having the edge...

That's 3 out of 4 wins for United over the past 2 Premier League
seasons - all of them by just the 1 goal.

Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers

Sun 22nd Nov, 1.30pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Dean

Both teams' poor form makes it hard to pick a winner in the Match
Result market. Bolton have only won 1 of 6 home games so far and
Blackburn have lost 5 out of 5 away games.

There's been plenty of goalmouth action in both teams' games
though...

Games at the Reebok Stadium are averaging 3.5 Total Goals - and
Blackburn away games are averaging a high 4.2 goals per game.

• 4 out of 6 Bolton home games (67%) have been Over 2.5 Goals

• 4 out of 5 Blackburn away games (80%) have been Over 2.5 Goals

In fact, 73% of all of both teams' Premier League games, home and
away, have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets this season.

Bolton's last 8 games in a row in all competitions have paid out on
Over 2.5 Goals bets. Including 5-1 and 4-0 defeats in the Premier
League to Villa and Chelsea respectively, and a 3-2 win over
Everton.

While 6 of Blackburn's last 7 games in all competitions have also
gone 'Over' - including 5-0 and 6-2 beatings by Chelsea and Arsenal,
and a 3-1 win over Portsmouth last time out.

Chelsea v Wolves

Sat 21st Nov, 3pm
Ref: L.Mason

It's David v Goliath here - top-of-the-league Chelsea v second-
bottom Wolves...

Chelsea have a 100% home record with 6 wins out of 6 at Stamford
Bridge so far - scoring 15 goals and conceding just 1 goal. Wolves
have won 1 of their 6 away games.

Chelsea are just 1/6 to post another home win this weekend. However
you can get 10/11 for Chelsea To Win To Nil at Blue Square and 888
Sport...

Considering that bet is just 1/2 at William Hill - and has paid out
a winner in 5 out of 6 Chelsea home games already this season - that
looks by far the best option of all the Match Result markets.

This is Wolves' first trip of the season to one of the Premier
League's 'Big Four' sides. The highest placed team they've played
away from home so far are Man City (who are currently 6th) - and
Wolves lost that game 1-0.

Also available - find the best odds for Chelsea To Win To Nil with
other bookies here:

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

Sunderland v Arsenal

Sat 21st Nov, 3pm
Ref: A.Wiley

Arsenal are in great form. They've won 5 of their last 6 games - a
record that puts them top of the Premier League 'Form Guide' table.
Since beating Liverpool last month, Sunderland have failed to win in
4 games.

The Head-2-Head on our website shows Arsenal are averaging more
shots, more corners and more possession per game than Sunderland.
And as mentioned in my Top Trends report (see above), there are
several ways to cash-in on the Gunners right now...

• 91% of Arsenal games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets
  
• Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 82% of games
  
• 7 of their 8 wins have been by more than 1 goal

Sunderland are a good match-up for Arsenal's Goals and Corners
stats. Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in 5 out of 6 Sunderland
home games so far, and games at the Stadium of Light are averaging
4.0 Total Goals.

Arsenal away games are averaging 4.4 Total Goals - and they've
scored more away goals than any one else in the Premier League.

Over 2.5 Goals is 4/6 (1.67) with the bookies. And Arsenal are also
4/6 to win the match.

Also available - Ladbrokes ('Quatro' market) and William Hill
('Match x Goals' market) offer a bet that combines both those
options in a 'double' - Arsenal to win and Over 2.5 Goals in the
game, paying out at around 5/4.

The Corners stats also match-up very well for this game...

Sunderland have only won the Most Corners in 1 of their 6 home games
so far. In the other 5 games they have been 'out-cornered' - with
the away team winning at least 3 corners more than them. Sunderland
have failed to win the Most Corners in 10 out of 12 Premier League
games this season.

Arsenal on the other hand are winning the Most Corners in the
majority of games - 82% - including 4 out of 6 away games where
they've won at least 2 corners more than their opponent.

• Sunderland home Corner averages = 3.7 For and 8.3 Against (-
  4.7 margin)

• Arsenal away Corner averages = 7.3 For and 4.5 Against (+2.8
  margin)

Last season Arsenal covered a -4 Corner Handicap in both games
against Sunderland - winning the corner count 8-3 at home and 7-1 at
Sunderland.

More Premier League bets than ever!

This weekend William Hill have got a massive 179 bets available for
every Premier League game. Some of these markets are a pretty
obscure - will there be a corner between the 46th and 60th minute,
for instance?!

But the good news is there are also mountains of bets available on
all the areas we cover with the stats on our website and in your
weekly emails. Such as Corners, Cards / Booking Points and Goals.

• I'll be looking in more details at these markets over the
  coming weeks and I'll highlight the best ones to target.

• For this weekend, there's a bet on Liverpool's Total Corners
  (see above). And the stats also point to a bet for the Burnley v
  Aston Villa game, in William Hill's 'Cards' markets...

Burnley v Aston Villa

Sat 21st Nov, 3pm
Ref: H.Webb

Villa have received the First Card in 67% of games this season, and
the Most Booking Points in 4 out of 6 away games...

• Burnley home Booking Points averages = 10.0 Pts For and 20.8
  Pts Against

• Villa away Booking Points averages = 35.0 Pts For and 23.3 Pts
  Against

William Hill offer 13/10 (2.30) for Villa to receive the First Card,
and 15/8 (2.88) for Villa to get the Most Booking Points.

And finally...

Mix and match your bets for bigger profits

Variations of the bets mentioned in today's email can be combined in
doubles, trebles and accumulators with the bookies. You need each
selection to win to get a payout - but there's the potential for big
profits. For example...

Man Utd to beat Everton
Chelsea to beat Wolves
Arsenal to beat Sunderland
Bolton v Blackburn to be Over 2.5 Goals

• If those 4 selections all win, the accumulator pays over 4/1
  with William Hill, Bet365, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power
  

Enjoy the weekend's games. I'll write to you again on Monday with
the latest stats and results...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

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