Standout stats for Saturday's live games
Friday 4th December 2009.
In your Football Betting Data bulletin today:
- Bets for the weekend…
- Didier Drogba’s ‘away goals’ stats…
- Cash-in on the Corners at 7/1…
After midweek Carling Cup and Europa League games the top teams are all
in action again in the Premier League this weekend.
The stats have highlighted bets for both of Saturday’s live TV games,
Portsmouth v Burnley and Man City v Chelsea. I’m also looking at the
West Ham v Man Utd clash and Wigan v Birmingham.
Plus – read on to find out how to get a 7/1 bet from the weekend’s top
‘Corners’ stats.
Portsmouth v Burnley
Sat 5th Dec, 12.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: P.Dowd
Match odds:
Portsmouth Draw Burnley
10/11 5/2 7/2
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif. Pts.
Portsmouth 20th 14 2 1 11 -12 7
Burnley 12th 14 5 2 7 -12 17
The stats guided us to an Over 2.5 Goals winner on ‘Burnley away’ last
week – they lost 5-3 at West Ham – and the stats point to the same bet
again this weekend.
- Portsmouth home games are averaging 2.8 Total Goals
- Burnley away games are averaging 4.7 Total Goals
Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in over half of games at Fratton
Park (57%) and in 6 out of 7 Burnley away games (86%).
Most of Portsmouth’s ‘Under’ games came at the start of the season.
Their last 5 home games in all competitions have paid out on Over 2.5
Goals bets.
Last week Portsmouth played their first game in charge under new boss
Avram Grant and that one saw 5 goals - they lost 4-1 at home to Man
Utd.
Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in 8 out 9 Burnley away games this
season in all competitions. And that includes their last 8 away games
in a row.
Also available at 5/6 (1.83) with most other bookies. Bet Now! |
West Ham v Man Utd
Sat 5th Dec, 3pm
Ref: P.Walton
Match odds:
West Ham Draw Man Utd
7/1 10/3 1/2
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif. Pts.
West Ham 17th 14 3 5 6 -2 14
Man Utd 2nd 14 10 1 3 +17 31
Man Utd are short odds-on for an away win here - so far they’ve won 4
out of 7 away games. But they’ve got a higher strike rate for winning
the Most Corners…
Man Utd have won the Most Corners in an impressive 93% of games (13
times out of 14). Including 6 out of 7 away games.
On average, Man Utd are winning over 4 corners more than opponents per
away game.
- West Ham home Corners = 4.9 For and 7.0 Against
- Man Utd away Corners = 7.1 For and 2.6 Against
West Ham have been ‘out-cornered’ in 64% of games this season,
including 4 out of 7 home games. Last season Man Utd won the corner
count against them 11-5 at Upton Park (and also got the Most Corners in
the game at Old Trafford).
Last week West Ham were out-cornered, at home, 7-1 by Burnley. Man Utd
on the other hand played away at Portsmouth and won the Most Corners,
8-4.
Man Utd can be backed with a ‘-3 Corner Handicap’ this weekend. That
bet has paid out a winner in 5 of their 7 away games so far.
This bet wins if Man Utd win at least 4 corners more than West Ham. Bet Now! http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football
|
Wigan v Birmingham
Sat 5th Dec, 3pm
Ref: L.Probert
Match odds:
Wigan Draw Birmingham
11/10 12/5 13/5
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif. Pts.
Wigan 14th 14 5 2 7 -16 17
Birmingham 11th 14 5 3 6 -2 18
Wigan’s Goal Difference looks bad (-16) as they let in 9 goals in a
freak game at Tottenham the other week. Their home Goal Difference is
much better, at –2. And 71% of games at the DW Stadium have paid out on
Under 2.5 Goals bets this season…
- Wigan home average = 2.4 Total Goals per game
- Birmingham away average = 2.4 Total Goals per game
Both teams’ games are averaging less than 3 goals. Wigan won 1-0 at
home against Sunderland last weekend. And 4 of their last 5 home games
have gone Under 2.5 Goals – 2 of those ‘Under’ results were 1-0 wins
and the other 2 were 1-1 draws.
Last weekend Birmingham won 1-0 at Wolves and before that they beat
Fulham 1-0.
Bet Now! http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football
|
Man City v Chelsea
Sat 5th Dec, 5.30pm
Live on ESPN
Ref: H.Webb
Match odds:
City Draw Chelsea
7/2 5/2 10/11
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif. Pts.
City 7th 13 5 7 1 +7 22
Chelsea 1st 14 12 0 2 +28 36
The Saturday evening live TV game has our highest stats ‘match-up’ of
the weekend…
- Bets on Over 10.5 Corners have paid out a winner in 100% of Man City
home games
- And 6 out of 7 Chelsea away games (86%) have also been Over 10.5
Corners
- Man City home average = 13.2 Total Corners
- Chelsea away average = 13.4 Total Corners
Bets on Over 10.5 Corners have paid out in the majority of both teams’
games home and away this season…
City have played 13 Premier League games and 11 have gone ‘Over’ (85%).
Chelsea have played 14 games and 11 have gone Over 10.5 Corners (79%).
Also - there were 13 corners in this fixture last season.
This bet wins if there are 12 or more corners in the game. Also check Bet Now! http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football
|
Goalscorer stats…
Chelsea striker Didier Drogba is in red-hot form at the moment.
He’s top of the Premier League Scorer chart with 11 Goals (level with
Jermain Defoe). He scored twice at Arsenal last weekend and also scored
at Blackburn in the Carling Cup on Wednesday night.
In all competitions, Drogba’s record is 5 goals from his last 5 games.
The Chelsea Scorers data on our site shows that 7 of Drogba’s 11
Premier League goals have been scored in Away games. Overall, he has
been the First Goalscorer on 3 occasions this season and the Last
Goalscorer 5 times.
Best odds for Drogba to score this weekend…
- Anytime Scorer 13/10 (2.30) with Extrabet and Expekt
- First Goalscorer 5/1 (6.00) with Betfred
- Last Goalscorer 5/1 (6.00) with Betfred
And finally…
Cash-in on the Corners at 7/1
The Head-2-Head data on our website highlights 3 strong match-ups for
‘Over’ bets on the Total Corners this weekend…
Man City v Chelsea
(See above).
Aston Villa v Hull
Both teams’ games home v away averaging 12+ Total Corners.
Wigan v Birmingham
Wigan home games averaging 11.3 corners, Birmingham away games
averaging 12.6 corners.
Bet365 have ‘Over’ bets available for those 3 games and will take
Doubles and Trebles on them. For example:
Man City v Chelsea – Over 12 Corners @ 10/11
Aston Villa v Hull – Over 12 Corners @ 11/10
Wigan v Birmingham – Over 11 Corners @ Evens
- The Treble on those 3 games pays 7/1 with Bet365
World Cup Draw today!
For full Head-2-Head stats on all this weekend’s Premier League games,
log in at our website…
www.FootballBettingData.co.uk Password: ****
I’ll be back in touch on Monday with all the results from the weekend.
P.S.
Don’t forget it’s the World Cup Draw in Cape Town today! Who will
England get in their Group? The Draw for South Africa 2010 is live on
BBC Two, online and on the radio from 5.45pm today.
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Football Betting Data
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