This weekend - 3 ways to win at the Reebok Stadium

Friday 11th December 2009.

In your Football Betting Data email today:

• 3 ways to cash-in on Bolton v Man City...
  
• Go for Goals at Chelsea...
  
• Birmingham City - 2nd in the league on recent form...

This weekend the stats are steering us away from the live TV games
- with all the standout selections coming in the Saturday 3pm kick
offs. Including 3 bets for Bolton v Man City.

And remember you can get a full Head-2-Head comparison for all 10
games at our website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

Here are our standout stats and bets for the weekend.

Chelsea v Everton

Sat 12th Dec, 3pm
Ref: P.Dowd

Chelsea have a 100% home record. They've won 7 games out of 7 at
Stamford Bridge, and have a home Goal Difference of +19, the best
in the Premier League. The league leaders are 1/4 (1.25) to beat
Everton this weekend. The Goals stats point to a different option
though...

• 8 of Chelsea's last 10 games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals
  bets. The only 2 that didn't go 'Over' were games against Man Utd
  and Liverpool

• 71% of Chelsea home games and 71% of Everton away games have
  paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets this season (5 games out of 7 each)

• Both Chelsea home games and Everton away games are averaging
  3.0 Total Goals

Chelsea in particular have been a consistent 'high Goals' team so
far, with 80% of league games and 72% of games in all competitions
going Over 2.5 Goals. They drew 2-2 in the Champions League on
Tuesday, lost 2-1 at Man City last Sunday and won 3-0 at Arsenal
the week before - all 'Over' games.

Everton drew 2-2 with Tottenham last time out, and haven't kept a
'clean sheet' since September.

Bolton Wanderers v Manchester City

Sat 12th Dec, 3pm
Ref: M.Clattenburg

The stats highlight some strong match-ups here. The majority of
both teams' games have paid out a winner on Over 10.5 Corners bets
this season, and Bolton have been getting the First Card and the
Most Booking Points in almost all of their home games.

Here are the Corners stats.

• 78% of Bolton's games this season have gone Over 10.5 Corners

• 85% of Man City's games this season have gone Over 10.5
  Corners

• 5 of Bolton's 7 home games have gone Over 10.5 Corners - 71%

• 5 of Man City's 7 away games have gone Over 10.5 Corners -
  71%

Bolton home games are producing an average of 12.3 corners - Man
City away games are producing an average of 11.6.

Also available - 'Over 11 Corners' with Bet365 (needs 12 or more to
win) and 'Over 12 Corners' with William Hill and Coral (needs 13 or
more corners to win).

Cards and Booking Points

The figures highlight the home team as the ones to watch here.

• Bolton home Booking Points averages = 30.0 For and 12.9
  Against

• Man City away = 16.4 pts For and 23.6 Against

A Bolton player has been shown the First Card in 86% of games at
the Reebok Stadium (6 games out of 7). And Bolton have got the Most
Booking Points in 5 home games, 71% (the other 2 games were a
Bookings 'Draw'). Those are high figures for a home team.

Man City have only received the First Card in 2 of their 7 away
games (29%) and have only got the Most Booking Points in 2 games,
too.

For example, from a £10 total stake:
 
£7.50 Bolton @ 13/10 = £17.25 potential return.
£2.50 Draw @ 3/1 = £10 potential return.

Yellow Card = 10 pts, Red Card = 25 pts.
Max. 1 player can get in a game = 35 pts.

Sunderland v Portsmouth

Sat 12th Dec, 3pm
Ref: S.Bennett

Sunderland have received the First Card in their last 5 games in a
row - and their 'home' figures are well above average. While
Portsmouth 'away' figures are below average...

• Sunderland have received the First Card in 86% of home games
  (6 games out of 7). The Premier League home average is less than
  half that, at 42%.

• Portsmouth have only got the First Card 2 times in 7 away
  games (29%). The Premier League away average is much higher, at
  52%.

For the season as a whole, home and away, Sunderland have picked up
the First Card in 73% of games. Portsmouth's figure is 40%.

And Sunderland have some of the 'most Booked' players in the
Premier League this season...

There are 4 Sunderland players in the top 10 list of players with
the most Yellow Cards to their name this season. Michael Turner is
joint-top with 6 yellow cards, and 3 other players have 5 cards to
their name. There is just 1 Portsmouth player in the top 10
(Boateng, 4 cards).

This game isn't live on TV, but William Hill have stacks of 'Card
markets' on offer.

Tottenham Hotspur v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Sat 12th Dec, 3pm
Ref: S.Attwell

Tottenham are 4th in the table and looking to keep up a challenge
for Champions League qualification next season. Wolves are 18th -
in the relegation zone - and are odds-on to go back down to the
Championship next season.

71% of games at have gone Over 2.5 Goals at White Hart Lane - and
Tottenham have been doing most of the scoring...

• Tottenham's last 3 home wins have all been by more than 1
  goal

• Wolves' last 3 away defeats have all been by more than 1 goal

Tottenham's home figures are exaggerated a bit by their 9-1
hammering of Wigan a couple of weeks back - giving them an average
home Goals margin of +2 per game. The Wolves away figure is -1.3
Goals.

Tottenham are just 3/10 (1.30) to beat Wolves. Over 2.5 Goals is
8/15 (1.53). And you can get 4/5 (1.80) for Spurs to win by more
than 1 goal.

Birmingham City v West Ham United

Sat 12th Dec, 3pm
Ref: L.Mason

Birmingham are in good form. They've won their last 3 games in a
row - and they're unbeaten in their last 6 games, since they lost
at Arsenal on 17th October. That run includes 2 away wins and draws
with Liverpool and Man City.

• The Blues are flying high in 2nd place on the Premier
  League's 'Form Guide' table based on the last 6 games

West Ham on the other hand are struggling this season. They are
just 1 point above the relegation zone, in 17th place. West Ham
have only won 1 out of 7 away games so far - and that was at Wolves
on the very first day of the season. Since then they've drawn 3 and
lost 3.

Birmingham's success has been built on their defence. They've
conceded just 4 goals at St Andrews - the 2nd-best home defensive
record in the Premier League behind top-of-the-league Chelsea.

It's also worth noting that all 6 of Birmingham's Premier League
wins have been by a Winning Margin of exactly 1 goal this season.
And that in 6 of their 7 defeats, West Ham have lost by exactly 1
goal.

• Birmingham are 3/1 with Bet365 and Blue Square to win with a
  1-goal 'Winning Margin.'

More online...

This weekend's live TV games are:

For the full list of games and all the team stats and Head-2-Head
info, log in at the members-only FBD website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

I'll be back in touch on Monday with the results from the weekend.

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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