The standout stats for all 4 of tonight's games
Tuesday 15th December 2009.
In today’s email:
- News of another winner from the weekend…
- Standout stats for all 4 of tonight’s games…
It’s a busy week in the Premier League! There are 4 games tonight, 4
more on Wednesday and then 10 over the weekend. That gives us plenty of
opportunities to cash-in on the stats...
News of another winner from the weekend
Before we look at tonight’s games, I’ve got news of a ‘winner’ from
last Friday’s email. In yesterday’s results update I quoted the bet on
Bolton to receive the First Card against Man City as having ‘lost.’
However it turns out that Craig Bellamy’s yellow card for dissent went
unnoticed by the bookies. Referee Mark Clattenburg flashed a yellow at
Bellamy so quick you’d have missed it if you blinked – the incident
even got a special mention on Match of the Day.
Thanks to all of you that wrote in to let me know William Hill paid out
on your Bolton First Card bet.
Amendment to Monday’s results email:
- 1st Card – Bolton at 19/20 – WON
Overall results from last week's 'FBD says' selections - 5 out of 7 winning bets.
Now for tonight’s standout bets…
Sunderland v Aston Villa
Tonight 7.45pm
Ref: K.Friend
Match odds:
Sunderland Draw Villa
2/1 5/2 6/4
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif Pts
Sunderland 10th 16 6 3 7 0 21
Villa 4th 16 8 5 3 +12 29
There’s not much between the bookies’ Match Result prices for this one,
with similar odds on offer for the ‘home win,’ ‘draw’ and ‘away win.’
Sunderland are smack-bang in the middle of the Premier League table in
10th place. They have only won 3 of their last 10 games – however 2 of
those wins were against teams above them in the table Arsenal (3rd) and
Liverpool (7th).
Villa have only lost 1 of their last 10 games, and are up to 4th in the
table after winning 1-0 at Man Utd on Saturday.
Sunderland’s Corners stats highlight a bet on the away team tonight…
- Sunderland have been out-cornered in 6 out of 8 home games (75%)
- Sunderland’s home average Corner margin is -3.6 per game
The key stat here is Sunderland’s poor ‘Corners For’ record when top
teams have visited the Stadium of Light. They have only been winning 1
or 2 corners…
Corners = Sunderland 2 Arsenal 6
Corners = Sunderland 1 Chelsea 14
Corners = Sunderland 1 Liverpool 7
Also, in their away game at Man Utd, Sunderland were ‘out-cornered’ 14-
1.
Villa lost the corners count 9-4 when protecting a 1-0 lead at Man Utd
at the weekend. But before that they’d won the Most Corners in their
last 3 away games, at Burnley, West Ham and Everton.
Here are some of the options available for tonight:
- Villa to be the Team With Most Corners @ 5/4 (2.25) William Hill
– wins if Villa win more corners than Sunderland.
- Villa ‘0’ Asian Handicap Corners @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365 -
wins if Villa win more corners than Sunderland, money back if both
teams get the same amount of corners.
This bets wins if Villa win the most corners, or the same amount of corners as Sunderland. Bet Now!
|
Man Utd v Wolves
Tonight 8pm
Ref: S.Bennett
Match odds:
Man Utd Draw Wolves
1/5 13/2 20/1
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif Pts
Man Utd 2nd 16 11 1 4 +20 34
Wolves 17th 16 4 4 8 -13 16
Man Utd were beaten 1-0 by Villa at the weekend – their first home
defeat of the season. Wolves won 1-0 away at 5th-placed Tottenham.
However despite those results Man Utd are still massive favourites to
win tonight, at 1/5 (1.20).
The Corners data points to a bet here…
- There have been at least 11 corners in 7 out of 8 Man Utd home games
(87.5%)
- Games at Old Trafford are averaging 13.4 Total Corners
- 62.5% of Wolves away games have paid out on Over 10.5 Corners bets
Man Utd are averaging a high 10.9 Corners For per home game (4 above
the Premier League average of 6.1) and Wolves are level with the away
average at 5.5 Corners For.
This bet wins if there are 12 or more corners in the game. Bet Now! |
Also available – Over 11 Corners @ 10/11 (1.91) with Stan James or 8/11
(1.73) with Skybet.
Birmingham v Blackburn
Tonight 8pm
Live on Sky Sports 2
Ref: M.Jones
Match odds:
Birmingham Draw Blackburn
5/4 5/2 13/5
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif Pts
Birmingham 8th 16 7 3 6 0 24
Blackburn 12th 16 5 4 7 -12 19
The Form stats gave us a ‘home win’ bet for Birmingham at the weekend
(beat West Ham 1-0) and the Blues are the favourite to win again
tonight, at 5/4. They’ve won 4 games in a row, are top of the table
based on last 6 results in the Premier League and their home record is
won 4 drawn 2 and lost 2.
Birmingham have the joint-best home defensive record, level with 1st
place Chelsea with just 4 goals conceded from 8 home games.
Blackburn on the other hand have an away goal difference of -16 and
have conceded 21 goals away from home. Their away record is won 1 drawn
1 and lost 6.
Both teams’ games are averaging less than 11 Total Corners this season…
- Birmingham home Total Corners average = 10.6 corners
- Blackburn away Total Corners average = 8.9 corners
- Bets on Under 10.5 Corners have paid out a winner in 7 out of 8 Blackburn away games (87.5%)
Here are some of the Corners options on offer with the bookies:
- Under 10 Corners @ 15/8 (2.88) with William Hill – wins if there are
9 or less corners in the game
- Asian Total Corners - Under 10.5 @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365 – wins if
there are 10 or less corners. Under 11 Corners – same bet – available
with Blue Square and 888 Sport @ 5/6 (1.83).
This bet wins if there are 11 or less corners in the game. Bet Now! |
Double-up for bigger profits…
There’s the potential for bigger profits if you match-up that Corners bet with the home win. For example:
- At Stan James, a Double on Birmingham to beat Blackburn and Under
11.5 Corners pays out at 5/2 (3.50)
- At Bet365, a Double on Birmingham to beat Blackburn and Asian
Total Corners – Under 10.5 pays just over 10/3 (4.33)
Bolton v West Ham
Tonight 8pm
Ref: A.Marriner
Match odds:
Bolton Draw West Ham
13/10 12/5 12/5
Form Pos. Played Won Drawn Lost Goal Dif Pts
Bolton 19th 15 3 4 8 -12` 13
West Ham 18th 16 3 5 8 -7 14
Bolton are 19th and West Ham are 18th – and there’s not much between
the Match Result odds tonight. Picking the winner looks tricky, but
there’s a bet that stands out from the Goals stats…
- 66% (10 out of 15) Bolton games have gone Over 2.5 Goals this season.
- 75% (12 out of 16) of West Ham games have gone Over 2.5 Goals this season.
Bolton home games are producing an average of 3.7 goals per game. West
Ham away games are averaging 2.6 goals.
Last season both games between these two clubs went Over 2.5 Goals.
Bolton did the double over West Ham winning 3-1 at Upton Park and 2-1
at home.
On more recent form…
Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out a winner in 4 of Bolton’s last 5
games at the Reebok Stadium and in 4 of West Ham’s last 5 away games.
Bet Now! http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/football/
|
For full Head-2-Head stats for all this week’s games, Log In at our
website…
www.FootballBettingData.co.uk Password: *****
I’ll be back in touch tomorrow with the latest results and a look ahead
at the Wednesday night and weekend games.
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Football Betting Data
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