Christmas special - 11 ways to profit from the Premier League

Thursday 24th December 2009

In today's bumper issue of Football Betting Data:

• 11 recommended bets for the Christmas games...
  
• Keep an eye on Bobby...

Christmas is here and there are stacks of Premier League games to
cash-in on. So let's get on with the show...

I've listed below 11 standout bets for the festive period, as well
as an in-form striker to keep an eye on for goals bets.

Birmingham v Chelsea

Sat 26th Dec, 12.45pm - live on ESPN
Ref: P.Walton

Two of the Premier League's top performers go head to head on Boxing
Day lunchtime. Birmingham are the form team right now with 5 wins
and a draw from their last 6 games, and the joint-best home Goals
Against figure in the Premier League (just 5 goals conceded in 9
games at St Andrews).

Chelsea are top of the league and have won more games than anyone
(played 18 won 13). But with the home team in such good form,
Chelsea could have to work hard to get another 3 points here - and
that could be good news if you follow the Corners stats...

• Birmingham have only won the Most Corners in 3 out of 18 games
  (17%)

• Chelsea have won the Most Corners in 67% of games, including 6
  out of 9 away games

Chelsea average 3.2 corners more than opponents per away game. The
bookies' Corner Handicap for this game is -2.

Man City v Stoke City

Sat 26th Dec, 3pm
Ref: L.Mason

The Cards and Booking Points stats clearly point to the away team
here.

Man City average 16.8 Booking Points less than opponents at the City
of Manchester Stadium. Stoke average 18.3 pts more than opponents
per away game.

• Man City have only got the Most Booking Points in 1 out of 8
  home games (12.5%) and the First Card in 2 home games (25%)

• Stoke have received the Most Booking Points in 7 out of 9 away
  games (78%) and the First Card in 8 out of 9 games (89%)

In the Man City v Sunderland game last weekend the away team got 25
more Booking Points than Man City. While Stoke got the First Card
and Most Booking Points (10-0) at Aston Villa.

For this game Stoke First Card and Most Booking Points bets are
available with William Hill. Both options are well supported by the
stats.

Wigan v Blackburn Rovers

Sat 26th Dec, 3pm
Ref: M.Clattenburg

Blackburn are on a poor run of form at the moment. They're 2nd-
bottom of the Premier League on recent results (drawn 3 lost 3 from
last 6 games).

And Rovers are also in the 'relegation zone' based on Away form this
season. Their away record is won 1 drawn 1 lost 7, with 6 Goals For
and 23 Goals Against.

• Blackburn have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 Premier
  League games.

• Wigan have scored in all of their last 6 games

Wigan lost their last home game to in-form Birmingham but before
that they were unbeaten in 5, including 3 wins. Wigan are 13/10
(2.30) to win on Saturday.

Sunderland v Everton

Sat 26th Dec, 3pm
Ref: M.Atkinson

We had a winning bet from Sunderland's above-average First Card
stats a couple of weeks ago (v Portsmouth), and since then they've
got the First Card against Villa at the Stadium of Light, too.

• Sunderland have received the First Card in 8 out of 9 home
  games (89%). The Premier League home average is just 42%

• Everton have only received the First Card in 3 out of 8 away
  games (37.5%). The Premier League away average is higher, at 52%

The bookies make the away team, Everton, the favourite to get the
First Card in this game. But the stats say to back Sunderland.

Arsenal v Aston Villa

Sun 27th Dec, 1.30pm - live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: P.Dowd

The Corners stats standout for this game. Arsenal average 4.8
corners more than opponents per game at the Emirates Stadium, while
Villa average 2 corners less than opponents per away game.

• Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 100% of home games (8
  games out of 8) and in 88% of all Premier League games this season

• Villa have won the Most Corners in 33% of away games (3 games
  out of 9)

Bets on Arsenal at home with a -3 Corner Handicap would've paid out
a winner 6 times out of 8 so far.

Stoke v Birmingham

Mon 28th Dec, 3pm
Ref: M.Atkinson

The recent Form and Winning Margin stats are worth a look here. Last
season Stoke lost 4 home games - and were beaten by exactly 1 goal
in 3 of those games. So far this season they've lost twice at the
Britannia Stadium (2-1 and 2-0).

Birmingham have been on a great run of form recently (see above, v
Chelsea stats). The Blues have won 8 games in total this season -
and all 8 of those wins have been by a 1-goal Winning Margin.
They've won 1-0 on 5 occasions, 2-1 twice and 3-2 once.

Stoke have lost 3 of their last 6 games, and Birmingham have won 5
of their last 6 - including 2 of their last 3 away.

• Birmingham are 2/1 (3.0) to beat Stoke

• Birmingham are 4/1 (5.00) with Bet365 to win by 1 goal Winning
  Margin

The stats suggest a narrow victory - but backing Birmingham to win
Draw No Bet will give you your money back if the game ends in a
draw.

Blackburn Rovers v Sunderland

Mon 28th Dec, 3pm
Ref: M.Dean

The stats point to an early goal in this one...

• Blackburn home average First Goal Time = 15 minutes

• Sunderland away average First Goal Time = 23 minutes

In 5 out of 6 Blackburn home games where a goal has been scored, the
First Goal has come before the 20th minute.

And in 6 out of 9 Sunderland away games the First Goal has been
scored before the 15th minute.

For Monday's game the bookies will let you bet on the First Goal
coming in the 26th minute or earlier.

And now 3 bets to lookout for next week - the Corners and Cards /
Bookings markets aren't up for these games yet but check with
bookies after the weekend. In particular look out for these bets
with Bet365 and William Hill.

Chelsea v Fulham

Mon 28th Dec, 3pm
Ref: A.Marriner

Chelsea's last London derby - away at West Ham last weekend - was a
feisty affair with 7 yellow cards (70 Booking Points). However the
stats for Chelsea v Fulham suggest a much lower total...

• Last season both games between Chelsea and Fulham went Under
  3.5 Cards and Under 35.5 Booking Points

• This season 8 out of 9 Chelsea home games have gone 'Under' on
  the Cards and Bookings

• 75% of Fulham away games have also been Under 3.5 Cards and
  Under 35.5 Booking Points (6 out of 8 games)

Games at Stamford Bridge are averaging 18.9 Total Booking Points.
And Fulham away games are averaging 29.4 pts. For this game bookies
should be offering bets for Under 45 or 35.5 Booking Points (or
Under 4.5 or 3.5 Cards).

Bolton v Hull

Tue 29th Dec, 8pm
Ref: P. Dowd

The stats indicate this game could be a 'high' Booking Points
affair...

• 68.7% (11 out of 16) of Bolton's games this season have gone
  Over 35 Booking Points/ 3.5 Cards

• 61.1% (11 out of 18) of Hull's games this season have gone
  Over 35 Booking Points/ 3.5 Cards

• 8 of Bolton's 9 (88.8%) home games have gone Over 35 Booking
  Points/ 3.5 Cards

• 6 of Hull's 9 (66.6%) away games have gone Over 35 Booking
  Points/ 3.5 Cards

The Bookings averages for both teams' games are Over 40 points.
Bolton's home games are averaging a total of 47.2 Booking Points
this season - while Hull's away games are averaging a total of 43.9
pts.

There were 50 total points in Bolton's last game at the Reebok
Stadium (v West Ham). And there were 60 pts when Hull went to
Arsenal last week. In those games Bolton got 40 pts For and Hull got
50 pts For - those are high Booking Points scores.

Manchester United v Wigan Athletic

Wed 30th Dec, 8pm
Ref: L.Mason

Man Utd's home corner winning record is phenomenal. They've won the
Most Corners in 100% of games at Old Trafford - 9 out of 9 games.
And they are averaging 8 corners more than opponents per game.

Wigan on the other hand are conceding, on average, 4 corners more
than they win per away game. And they've been 'out-cornered' in 8
out of 9 away games so far (89%).

Man Utd have won at least 5 corners more than opponents in 8 out of
9 games at Old Trafford. The bookies will probably give them a -4 or
-5 Corner Handicap for this game. Both teams' stats suggest United
can cover that.

And finally...

Keep an eye on Bobby this Christmas...

Bobby Zamora has scored 5 goals in his last 4 games - including
goals in Fulham's last 2 home Premier League games.

• Zamora is 2/1 to Score at Anytime v Tottenham on Saturday, and
  4/1 to score at Chelsea on Monday.

You can find out the top scorers for every Premier League team - as
well as all the latest Form, Goals, Corners and Booking Points stats
- on our website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

• All stats in today's email accurate as of 24th Dec 2009. Check
  our website for up-to-date data over the Christmas and New Year
  period, after each set of games.

Have a good Christmas - and I'll be in touch again on Wednesday 30th
with a summary of all our latest results.

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

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