Weather permitting - 3 ways to win this weekend!

Friday 8th January 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Midweek games hit by the weather...
  
• 3 recommended bets for the weekend...

It's been a stop-start week for the football with most games being called
off due to bad weather. Both Carling Cup games were called off midweek,
and the Premier League game between Arsenal and Bolton fell victim to the
snow too.

Our 'FBD says' bet for that one was void with staked returned. And
we could've done with Stoke v Fulham being called off too on Tuesday
night, as Stoke turned the form book on its head to win their first
game in 6 attempts.

Stoke 3 Fulham 2

FBD said:

• Fulham '0 Asian Handicap' to beat Stoke @ Evens - LOST

Fulham went 3-0 down in the 1st Half, and although they fought back
with 2 goals, they couldn't get an equaliser.

On to this week's games - and 3 of the 10 Premier League fixtures have
already been called off: Burnley v Stoke, Fulham v Portsmouth and
Sunderland v Bolton. I had bets lined up for you on 2 of those games but
I've had to take them out of my match preview below.

• More games may well yet be called off due to the weather - but any
  bets you do place will be void with stakes returned if that happens.

Hull v Chelsea

Sat 9th Jan, 12.45pm live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M. Atkinson

This is a 'bottom versus top' game and that's reflected in the
bookies' odds - Chelsea are just 4/11 (1.36) across the board for an
away win while Hull are as big as 10/1 with Coral.

Our Head-2-Head stats highlight a Goals bet for this game. Bets on
Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in 60% of all Hull games and 75% of all
Chelsea games so far. And a closer look at the home and away records
and recent results shows another 'Over' game could be on the cards
this weekend...

Games at the KC Stadium are averaging 2.9 Total Goals, and the
figure for Chelsea away games is 2.8 Total Goals.

• Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out a winner in 4 of the last
  5 Hull games and 3 of the last 5 Chelsea games

Considering Chelsea are massive favourites to win this game, it's
worth taking a look at both teams' win / loss records alongside the
Over 2.5 Goals stats...

• Chelsea have won 14 games this season - and 11 of those have
  been Over 2.5 Goals games (79%). That includes 4 out of 5 away wins
  that have gone Over 2.5 Goals

• Hull have lost 10 games this season - and 7 of those games
  also went Over 2.5 Goals (70%), including 2 out of 3 home defeats

Last season Chelsea won this fixture 3-0, and at the start of this
season they beat Hull 2-1 at Stamford Bridge. 'Quatro' bets on
Chelsea to win AND there to be 3 or more goals in the game would've
paid out in both those games.

Alternatively - back 'Over 2.5 Goals' at 5/6 (1.83) with Skybet or
4/5 (1.80) with Paddy Power, Bet365, Blue Square and 888 Sport.

Birmingham v Man Utd

Sat 9th Jan, 5.30pm live on ESPN
Ref: M.Clattenburg

The Corners stats paint a pretty clear picture here - and with this
game live on TV, plenty of Corners bets will be on offer with the
bookies...

• Birmingham have only won the Most Corners in 3 out of 10 home
  games so far (30%)

• While Man Utd have won the Most Corners in 8 out of 10 away
  games (80%)

And for the season as a whole, Birmingham have been out-cornered in
70% of Premier League games, while Man Utd have won the Most Corners
in a high 90% of games.

Man Utd are winning, on average, 4 corners more than opponents per
away game (+3.9 corners margin). For Saturday's game you can bet on
them with a -2.5 Corner Handicap.

In Birmingham's last home game they drew 0-0 with 1st place Chelsea
and were out-cornered by 4 corners (11-7). In Man Utd's last away
game they won the corner count 7-5 v Hull - and when Man Utd played
Birmingham earlier in the season the corner count was 13-2 to
United.

And finally - the live game on Sunday afternoon...

Liverpool v Tottenham

Sun 10th Jan, 4pm live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: H. Webb

Both these two teams match up well in the goals department. Take a
look at these 'high' figures...

• 60% (12 out of 20) of Liverpool's games this season have gone
  Over 2.5 Goals

• 65% (13 out of 20) of Tottenham's games this season have gone
  Over 2.5 Goals

• 8 out of Liverpool's 10 (80%) home games have gone Over 2.5
  Goals

• 7 out of Tottenham's 10 (70%) away games have gone Over 2.5
  Goals

Liverpool's home games are producing an average of 3.7 goals - while
Tottenham's away games are averaging 3.0.

Tottenham came out on top the last time these two sides met earlier
in the season, winning 2-1 at White Hart Lane. In fact 4 of the last
5 games between Liverpool and Spurs have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals
bets.

Let's hope the weather doesn't effect too many of the Premier League
games this weekend. I'll be back in touch on Monday with the latest
results and a look at the Manchester City v Blackburn game...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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