Starting tonight - 4 standout bets for the midweek games

Tuesday 26th January 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Your weekend winner...
  
• 4 standout bets for tonight and tomorrow...

There are no fewer than 17 Premier League games this week - starting
with 4 tonight and 4 more on Wednesday...

The stats have highlighted 4 standout bets for the midweek games.
We'll kick off with tonight's game at Portsmouth. First up though,
news of a winning bet from the weekend.

Man Utd 4 Hull 0

Corners = 20.

FBD said:

• Over 10.5 Corners @ 11/20 - WON

This one was settled by half time. There were a total of 20 corners
in the game, landing all 'Over' corners bets available with the
bookies. As mentioned in Friday's email, that includes Over 11.5
Corners and Over 12 Corners bets that were available at bigger odds
than our main Over 10.5 pick.

There have now been at least 15 corners in Hull's last 3 away games.

Portsmouth v West Ham

TONIGHT - Tuesday 26th January, 7.45pm
Ref: A.Marriner

Picking the match winner looks tricky here. Portsmouth are bottom of
the table but have won 3 of their last 5 home games, while West Ham
have lost 3 of their last 5 away and only won 1 away game all
season.

The Corners stats paint a clearer picture though...

• 80% of Portsmouth home games have been Over 10.5 Corners (8
  out of 10)

• 73% of West Ham away games have been Over 10.5 Corners (8 out
  of 11)

Both teams' games are averaging 12+ Total Corners. The figure is
12.8 at Fratton Park and 12.6 corners for West Ham away games.

On recent form a 'high corners' game looks on the cards here, too.
Bets on Over 10.5 Corners would've paid out a winner in 4 of the
last 5 Portsmouth home games and 4 of the last 5 West Ham away
games.

Over 10.5 Corners is available at 1/2 (1.50) with Expekt. Skybet
offer Over 11 Corners at 8/13 (1.62) and Bet365 have Over 12 Corners
at 11/10 (2.10). Check with Coral and William Hill for Corners bets
too.

Chelsea v Birmingham

Wednesday 27th January, 7.45pm
Ref: S.Bennett

Birmingham are on a 15-match unbeaten run in all competitions - but
the bookies make Chelsea odds-on to win at 1/4 (1.25). Chelsea's
record at Stamford Bridge is won 10, drawn 1 and lost 0.

• When these two met in the reverse fixture at St Andrews over
  Christmas, Birmingham held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw

Birmingham have lost 6 games this season - but in 5 of those they
were only beaten by 1 goal. With that in mind it's worth looking at
the Asian Handicap bets on offer for this game, with the bookies
giving Birmingham a 'head start.'

Bet365 and Victor Chandler give Birmingham a '+1.5, +2' Asian
Handicap. That option works like this:

Birmingham '+1.5, +2' Asian Handicap
If Birmingham win or draw - bet wins.
If Birmingham lose by 1 goal - bet wins.
If Birmingham lose by 2 goals - you get half your money back.
If Birmingham lose by 3 goals or more - bet loses.

That bet would've paid out a winner in 20 out of 21 Birmingham games
this season (95%) - with half your money back in the other game
(lost 3-1 at Arsenal in October). Placing that bet on Chelsea's
opponents would've paid out in half their games.

The Corners stats also highlight a bet in this game...

• Chelsea have won the Most Corners in 73% of home games (8 out
  of 11) and in 71% of Premier League games overall this season

• Birmingham have been 'out-cornered' in 9 out of 10 away games
  (90%), and have only won the Most Corners in 3 out of 21 games all
  season (14%)

Both teams average Corners For and Against figures match-up well,
with the home v away averages almost exactly mirroring each other...

Those figures show Chelsea are winning, on average, 5 corners a game
more than opponents at Stamford Bridge. In their last 4 home games
they've won the corner count: 15-1, 10-6, 11-2 and 7-1.

Chelsea also won the Most Corners 11-7 in the away game at
Birmingham last month (that was a winning Corner Handicap bet for us
on Boxing Day).

Bets on Chelsea with a '-5.5 Corner Handicap' would've paid out a
winner in 7 of the 8 home games where Chelsea have won the Most
Corners.

And finally - a note on the Cards and Booking Points stats for this
game...

A high 90% of Chelsea home games and 80% of Birmingham away games
have paid out on Under 3.5 Cards bets this season (Under 35.5
Booking Points).

However...

At the time of writing the bookies are only betting Under 2.5 Cards
(Bet365), and that option would only have paid out in 3 out of 10
Birmingham away games.

And it's also worth noting 11 of the 15 Premier League games that
the Referee, Steve Bennett has taken charge of this season have had
at least 3 yellow cards in.

Everton v Sunderland

Wednesday 27th January, 8pm
Live on Sky Sports 2
Ref: P.Dowd

After Sunderland were hammered 7-2 at Chelsea last time out it's no
surprise that the bookies make them the underdogs in this one.
Everton are unbeaten in 7 games and have won their last 2 home games
2-0 - Sunderland are 8 games without a win and have only won once
away from home all season.

The stats point to one area where you should look to back Sunderland
though...

• Everton have only received the Most Booking Points in 1 out of
  11 games at Goodison Park this season (9%)

• While Sunderland have picked up the Most Booking Points in 9
  out of 11 away games (82%)

For the season as whole, Everton have only got the Most Booking
Points in a game 6 times out of 21 (29%) and Sunderland have got the
most players in the Referee's book 13 times (62%).

The Head-2-Head Booking Points data on our website shows that
Everton are averaging 21.8 points less than opponent per home game
(approx. 2 yellow cards less). And that Sunderland are averaging
15.5 points more than opponents per away game.

The stats also show that Sunderland players are being shown the
First Card more than twice as often as Everton players - 27% vs.
64%. Sunderland are 8/13 (1.62) to receive the First Card with
Bet365.

One more thing - we can't look at the stats for this game without
mentioning Darren Bent...

The Sunderland striker is the joint-2nd top scorer in the Premier
League with 14 goals so far. 10 of those 14 goals have landed First
Goalscorer bets - and Bent is in-form right now with 5 goals in his
last 5 games in all competitions.

• Darren Bent is 5/2 (3.50) to Score at Anytime v Everton...

• And he's 15/2 (8.50) to be the First Goalscorer

Both those prices are with Boylesports.

I'll be back on Friday with the midweek results and our preview of
the weekend's Premier League games...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

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