How to profit from Arsenal v Man Utd this weekend

Friday 29th January 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Midweek results - Chelsea back on top
  
• Cash-in on Arsenal v Man Utd...
  
• 6 recommended bets for the weekend...

Chelsea are back on top of the Premier League after their 3-0 win
over Birmingham on Wednesday night...

This weekend they take on Burnley - I've got that game and 5 others
covered for you in today's email. Including the standout stats for
the big game on Sunday - Arsenal v Man Utd.

First up though, an update on the midweek games.

Midweek results

Portsmouth 1 West Ham 1
Total Corners = 10

FBD said: Over 11 Corners @ 8/13 - LOST

Both teams have 70%+ records for 'high corners' games this season -
but there were 2 corners less than we needed in Tuesday night's
game.

Chelsea 3 Birmingham 0
Corners = Chelsea 8 Birmingham 3

FBD said: Birmingham +1.5, +2 Asian Handicap - LOST

FBD said: Asian Handicap Corners - Chelsea -5.5 @ 19/20 - LOST

Before this game, bets on Birmingham with the '+1.5, +2' Asian
Handicap would've paid out a winner 20 times from 21 games. We also
missed out on the Corner Handicap bet by just 1 corner.

Everton 2 Sunderland 0
Booking Points = Everton 0 Sunderland 10 pts

FBD said: Most Booking Points - Sunderland @ 8/13 - WON

At least the stats stayed true to form for us in this one.
Sunderland got the Most Booking Points for the 10th away game out of
12 this season (83%). Bolo Zenden's yellow card (10 pts) was the
only card of the game - also landing the First Card bet on
Sunderland.

• Stats watch... Everton have now won their last 3 home games -
  all by a 2-0 score-line
  
  

Recommended bets for the weekend

On to this weekend's games now - there are 9 fixtures over the
weekend and then Sunderland v Stoke on Monday.

Burnley v Chelsea

Sat 30th Jan, 5.30 pm - live on ESPN
Ref: P.Dowd

Burnley have been a consistent 'low Bookings' teams this season,
with an impressive 90% of home games going Under 35.5 Booking Points
and Under 3.5 Cards. That's a 9-games-out-of-10 record at Turf Moor.

• Since Brian Laws took over as Burnley manager they've played 2
  away games. There were 0 (zero) Booking Points in the 3-0 defeat at
  Man Utd. And 50 pts in the 1-0 defeat at nearby Bolton - the club
  former manager Owen Coyle controversially left Burnley for just a
  fortnight ago.

The majority of Chelsea away games have gone 'Over' this season
(70%) - but because of the way the fixtures (and the snow) have
fallen, the Blues haven't actually played an away game since
December. Also, they had a run of 3 'high bookings' games in a row
against 3 of their 'enemies' - local rivals West Ham and Premier
League title chasers Arsenal and Man Utd.

When Chelsea beat Burnley 3-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier in the
season there was just 1 yellow card in the game (10 pts).

So far in 2010 Chelsea have played 3 Premier League games - all at
home - with Booking Points totals of just 20, 10 and 0 pts.

• 5 of the last 7 Burnley games have gone Under 35.5 Booking
  Points and Under 3.5 Cards

• 5 of the last 7 Chelsea games have also been 'Under'

The Referee for this one is Phil Dowd. Those 'Under' bets would've
paid out a winner in 8 of the last 10 Premier League games that he's
taken charge of.

Cards / Booking Points bets explained...

Yellow card = 10 pts. Red Card = 25 pts. Max. one player can receive
per game = 35 pts.

Bet365 Cards bets: Yellow = 1, Red = 2. Max. one player can receive
per game = 3.
______________________________

Arsenal v Manchester Utd

Sun 31st Jan, 4pm - live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: C.Foy

The Goals stats suggest this could be an entertaining game...

• 5 of the last 6 Premier League games between these clubs have
  seen 3 or more goals scored. Including a 2-1 win for Man Utd earlier
  this season

And Arsenal home games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets time and
time again in 2009/10...

• 10 out of 11 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals at the Emirates
  Stadium this season (91%)

Arsenal home games = 4.1 goals per game average.

Man Utd away games = 3.0 goals per game average.

The recent results of both teams also point to Over 2.5 Goals. That
bet has paid out a winner in 5 of the last 7 Arsenal games and in 6
of the last 7 Man Utd games.

Both teams also have in-form goal-scorers at the moment - and that's
good news for an 'Over' bet...

Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas has scored 5 goals in his last 6
games. And Man Utd's Wayne Rooney is the Top Scorer in the Premier
League with 19 goals...

Rooney has scored 9 goals in his last 10 games in all competitions.
He also has been the First Goalscorer in 3 of United's last 5 league
games.

Victor Chandler have some standout prices available on the Scorer
markets:

• Rooney is 9/5 to Score at Anytime and 6/1 to be First
  Goalscorer

• Fabregas is 14/5 to Score at Anytime and 10/1 to score First

West Ham Utd v Blackburn Rovers

Sat 30th Jan, 3pm
Ref: P.Walton

The Corners stats point the way here. There have been 9 or less
corners in 5 of Blackburn's last 6 games - and there were just 7
corners when they drew 0-0 with West Ham earlier in the season.

• 60% of West Ham home games have been Under 10.5 Corners

• 82% of Blackburn away games have been Under 10.5 Corners

Both teams' Corners For stats are below the Premier League home /
away averages (see our Team Data pages for full stats). West Ham
average 4.6 Corners For per home game and Blackburn average just 3.7
per away game.

Blackburn's away stats are particularly strong. Under 10.5 Corners
bets have paid out a winner in 9 out of 11 games.

Birmingham City v Tottenham Hotspur

Sat 30th Jan, 3pm
Ref: S.Attwell

St Andrews' has seen less goals than any other Premier League ground
this season...

Just 15 goals have been scored in Birmingham home games, 9 For and 6
Against, from 11 games. That's an average of just 1.3 Total Goals
per game.

• Bets on Under 2.5 Goals have paid out in 73% of Birmingham
  home games (8 out of 11)

Tottenham have been involved in more 'Over' games than 'Under' ones
this season - but the goals have dried up a bit recently...

Bets on Under 2.5 Goals have paid out in Tottenham's last 6 games in
a row (and in 4 of Birmingham's last 5 games).

Hull v Wolves

Sat 30th Jan, 3pm
Ref: M.Dean

Wolves have one of the highest records in the Premier League for
picking up the Most Booking Points away from home...

• Wolves have got more Booking Points than their opponents in 9
  out of 10 away games (90%). And a Wolves player has received the
  First Card in 80% of away games

• Hull match-up well. They have only got the most points in 3
  out of 10 games at the KC Stadium, with opponents getting the Most
  Booking Points in the other 70% of games

Hull's home Booking Points averages are 13.5 For and 27.5 Against
per game. Wolves' away figures are 26.0 For and just 3.0 Against.

Wolves have landed Most Booking Points bets in 4 of their last 5
league games.

Manchester City v Portsmouth

Sun 31st Jan, 1.30pm - live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Atkinson

The stats point to a bet on each team here - one on the Most Booking
Points and one on the Most Corners. However the bookies seem to be
on to this one as there aren't many betting options around for us at
the time of writing...

• City have only received the Most Booking Points in 1 out of 10
  home games so far. Portsmouth have got the Most Bookings in half
  their away games

Man City are averaging 1 yellow card For per home game (10 pts) and
15.5 pts less than opponents. Portsmouth are averaging approx. 2
yellows - 21.5 Booking Points For - per away game, and 7.5 pts more
than opponents.

In the reverse fixture at Fratton Park, Portsmouth received 20 pts
to Man City's 10.

And on recent form - City have only got the Most Booking Points in 2
of their past 10 games. Opponents have only got the Most Bookings in
just 1 of Portsmouth's last 10 games, home or away.

You won't get great odds for this one - but the stats clearly point
to Portsmouth to win the 'Booking Points Match Bet.'

And now for the Corners stats...

• Man City have won the Most Corners in 8 out of 10 home games

• Portsmouth have been out-cornered in 7 out of 10 away games
  and have only the won the Most Corners in 1 of them (2 corner
  'ties')

On recent form, taking in all Premier League games home and away,
City have won the Most Corners in 7 of their last 10 games. While
Portsmouth have been out-cornered in 7 of their last 10 - and have
only won the Most Corners once in that time (that was at home, v
West Ham).

Our Head-2-Head Corners stats show that City are winning on average
+2.5 corners more than opponents at Eastlands. Portsmouth's away
average is -2.2 corners. When City won 1-0 at Portsmouth earlier
this season they also won the corner count, 11-3.

• City and Portsmouth also match-up well for an Over 10.5
  Corners bet. 80% of City home games and 70% for Portsmouth away have paid out on that option. Expekt.com offer Over 10.5 Corners at 10/21 (1.47)

Boost your odds with a 3/1 Treble

It looks like most bookies will give Man City a big-looking '-3' or
'-4 Corner Handicap' to beat this weekend. And at William Hill, Man
City are odds-on at just 1/5 (1.20) to win the 'Most Corners' and
1/3 (1.33) with a '-1 Corner Handicap.'

• The Man City '-1 Corner Handicap' wins if Man City win at
  least 2 corners more than Portsmouth

To boost your odds, why not mix and match one or two of our other
recommended bets in a Double or Treble alongside the Man City '-1
Corner Handicap' at William Hill...

For example, this Treble pays out at over 3/1 if all three
selections come in:

• Man City -1 Corner Handicap v Portsmouth
  
• Birmingham v Tottenham - Under 2.5 Goals
  
• Arsenal v Man Utd - Over 2.5 Goals

Go straight to William Hill's Premier League coupon here...

www.WillHill.com

For the full Head-2-Head stats on every Premier League game, log in
at the FBD members-only website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: ******

I'll write to you again on Monday with the latest results and a look
at the Sunderland v Stoke game.

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

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