This weekend - 5 ways to win on the Premier League

Friday 19th February 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Midweek results...
  
• This weekend - 5 ways to win...

There's a busy weekend of Premier League action ahead with 10 games
- and 5 of them live on TV, including Everton v Man Utd on Saturday
lunchtime...

Plus - Liverpool and Tottenham both have trends that have paid out
in their last 9 games - find out if they can make it 10 in a row
this weekend.

First up, a round-up of the midweek games.

Midweek results

There were 2 draws in the midweek games, and it was 50-50 for us on
the stats...

Stoke City 1 Man City 1

Total Corners = 6.

• FBD said: Asian Total Corners - Over 11.5 @ 17/20 - LOST

Both teams had 'high' corners records going in to this game, but
there were just 6 corners on Tuesday night - the lowest Total
Corners figure in any Man City game all season.

Wigan 0 Bolton 0

• FBD said: Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/4 - WON

A 'low goals' trend to keep an eye on here. Bets on Under 2.5 Goals
have now paid out a winner in 5 of Wigan's last 6 games, and in 6
out of 7 Bolton games since Owen Coyle took over as manager.

This weekend's standout stats...

Now for a look at this weekend's Premier League games, starting
with that Saturday lunchtime game at Goodison Park - live on Sky
Sports.

Everton v Man Utd

Sat 20th Feb, 12.45pm - Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: H.Webb

Everton fans won't be happy with this statistic - Everton have lost
at home to Man Utd 13 times in the Premier League era, more than
any other team versus any other opponent in Premier League history.

Howver it's not all bad news for Everton - they beat league leaders
Chelsea 2-1 in their last home game and are unbeaten in their last
6 at Goodison Park. Last time out for Man Utd, they drew 1-1- away
at Aston Villa.

Cards and Booking Points

Both teams' recent Booking Points records point to a bet here...

• Everton have only received the Most Booking Points (most
  yellow and red cards) in 3 of their last 10 Premier League games -
  and in none of their last 5 home games

• In contrast, Man Utd have picked up the Most Booking Points
  in 4 of their last 5 away games

For the season as a whole, a Referee has only shown the most cards
to Everton players in 1 of their 13 home games (v Liverpool). Man
Utd have received the Most Booking Points in just over half their
away games - 7 times out of 13 (54%).

When Man Utd beat Everton 3-0 earlier in the season, both teams got
2 yellow cards each (20 pts v 20 pts). The Head-2-Head data on our
website shows Man Utd are averaging more Booking Points per away
game than Everton are at home:

• Everton home Booking Points = 10.4 Pts For and 30.4 Pts
  Against

• Man Utd away Booking Points = 24.6 Pts For and 17.3 Pts
  Against

The bookies offer 3 options in this market: Everton to get the Most
Booking Points, Man Utd to get the Most Booking Points and the
Booking Points 'Tie.'

If you'd backed the away team / Man Utd option and the 'Tie' in
every Everton home game and every Man Utd away game this season as
described below, you'd have got a payout from 22 out of 26 games
(85%).

Booking Points explained:

Yellow card = 10 pts. Red Card = 25 pts.
Max. per player per game = 35 pts.

Arsenal v Sunderland

Sat 20th Feb, 3pm
Ref: S.Bennett

This game sees a strong 'home' team take on a poor 'away' one -
Arsenal have won 10 out of 13 games at the Emirates Stadium while
Sunderland have lost 9 out of 13 away.

Arsenal also have a high 85% record for Over 2.5 Goals - that bet
has paid out in 11 out of 13 home games. Our Head-2-Head data shows
both Arsenal home games and Sunderland away games are averaging 3
or more Total Goals this season.

• Arsenal are just 2/9 (1.22) to beat Sunderland this weekend

• Over 2.5 Goals is also odds-on at just 1/2 (1.50) with most
  bookies

The stats point to both those options, and the good news is you can
combine them in one bet in the Quatro market at Ladbrokes...

'Arsenal to win with 3 or more goals scored in the match' would've
paid out a winner in 8 of Arsenal's 10 home wins so far - and in
12 out of 16 wins overall.

Aston Villa v Burnley

Sun 21st Feb, 2pm - Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: S.Attwell

Aston Villa have got a great defensive record recently - they've
kept a Clean Sheet in 8 of their last 11 games. Burnley on the
other hand haven't kept a Clean Sheet in 14 games...

• Burnley have the worst away record in the Premier League -
  won none, drawn 1 and lost 12

• Burnley have lost their last 6 away games 'To Nil'

Aston Villa have conceded just 2 goals in their last 6 games at
Villa Park - and those were against Liverpool and Man Utd. Burnley
have conceded 12 goals (and scored none) in their last 6 away
games.

Villa are 2/5 (1.40) favourites to beat Burnley this weekend. You
can get 11/8 (2.38) for them 'To Win To Nil.'

Manchester City v Liverpool

Sun 21st Feb, 3pm
Ref: P.Walton

Man City have won their last 6 home games in a row. Liverpool lost
1-0 at Arsenal last week but before that they were unbeaten in 7
Premier League games.

These two are side by side in the league table with just 1 point
between them, and are evenly matched on the Shots and Possession
stats on our Head-2-Head page - a close game could be in store.

• 4 of Man City's last 5 home games have been Under 2.5 Goals

• Liverpool's last 7 away games have all been Under 2.5 Goals -
  and there have been a total of just 8 goals scored in those 7 games

Bets on Under 2.5 Goals have paid out a winner in Liverpool's last
9 Premier League games and in their last 12 games in a row in all
competitions. That's a strong trend that's well worth following.

Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur

Sun 21st Feb, 4.15pm
Ref: A.Wiley

Wigan and Tottenham are neck and neck in the Premier League's Form
Guide table - both teams have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their
last 6 games.

Wigan have only won 1 of their last 6 home games and Tottenham have
only won 1 of their last 6 away games. Those results make it hard
to pick a winner in the Match Result market.

The Goals stats highlight the best bet here. Earlier in the season Spurs
beat Wigan 9-1 in a crazy game at White Hart Lane – but I think it’s safe
to say that was a one-off. I can’t even see a price at the bookies for a
repeat of that score-line (although 9-0 is 500/1 with Paddy Power). That
game was back in November – the recent form points to ‘low goals’…

• 75% of Wigan home games (9 out of 12) have been Under 2.5
  Goals

• Wigan home games average 2.2 Total Goals and Tottenham away
  games average 2.7

Bets on Under 2.5 Goals have paid out a winner in 4 of Wigan's last
5 home games and 5 of their last 6 Premier League games overall.

Tottenham's record is even stronger...

There have been Under 2.5 Goals in 4 of the last 5 Tottenham away
games - and in their last 9 Premier League games in a row.

View the Head-2-Head stats online...

You can view Head-2-Head betting stats for all this weekend's
Premier League games at our website:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

I'll write to you again on Monday with the stats and results from
the weekend...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

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