Double up on Chelsea v Man City tomorrow

Friday 26th February 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Man Utd lose their 100% record...
  
• Double up on Chelsea v Man City tomorrow...
  
• 6 recommended bets for the weekend...

There are some big games this weekend. Aston Villa take on Man Utd
at Wembley in the Carling Cup final on Sunday. And in the Premier
League, it's Chelsea v Man City live on Saturday lunchtime...

This game has extra spice thanks to the 'John Terry v Wayne Bridge'
saga, following recent allegations regarding their personal lives.
The bookies have got Specials bets on offer for all number of things
- including 5/2 at Victor Chandler for the former team-mates to be
seen shaking hands after the final whistle.

I'm leaving those kinds of bet alone though - and concentrating on
the stats. Read on for our match preview of Chelsea v Man City, and
6 recommended bets for this weekend's games.

Man Utd lose their 100% record

One of the strongest trends of the season failed us on Tuesday
night...

Man Utd 3 West Ham 0

Corners = Man Utd 6 West Ham 7.

• FBD said: Man Utd -5 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 - LOST

That was the first time - out of 14 games - that Man Utd have failed
to win the Most Corners at Old Trafford this season.

On to this weekend's Premier League games now - starting with an
opportunity to 'Double up' at Stamford Bridge...

Chelsea v Manchester City

Sat 27th Feb, 12.45pm - Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Dean

Man City beat Chelsea 2-1 at Eastlands in December - but Chelsea are
odds-on favourites at 1/2 (1.50) to win at Stamford Bridge this
weekend...

They have the best home record in the Premier League - won 12 drawn
1 and lost none. And Chelsea have won their last 5 home games in a
row. Man City have only won 1 of their last 5 away games.

As well as Chelsea's unbeaten home record - the Corners stats also
stand out for this game...

• 77% of Chelsea home games (10 out of 13) have paid out on Over
  10.5 Corners bets

• 77% of Man City away games (10 out of 13) have also paid out
  on Over 10.5 Corners bets

• There have been Over 10.5 Corners in 77% of ALL Premier League
  games played by Chelsea and Man City this season. Combined, that
  would be 41 winning bets out of 53

• There were 15 corners in the Man City v Chelsea game in
  December

Recent form...

There have been at least 11 corners in each of Chelsea's last 5
games at Stamford Bridge, and Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out
in 8 of their last 10 Premier League games overall.

In 6 of Man City's 10 most recent league games there have been Over
10.5 Corners. And there have been at least 11 corners in 4 of the
last 5 Man City away games.

Over 10.5 Corners is 4/7 (1.57) with Stan James - other bookies that
offer that market for live games include Expekt, Extrabet and Bwin.

• Other (higher) corners options are available with all the top
  bookies, such as William Hill, Coral, Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power
  and Blue Square

Stan James and Bet365 accept Doubles on Match Result and Total
Corners bets. A Double on Chelsea to win and Over 10.5 Corners would
pay around 5/4 (2.25) with Stan James.

Burnley v Portsmouth

Sat 27th Feb, 3pm
Ref: M.Clattenburg

The Premier League's bottom 2 teams go head-to-head. Burnley look in
the better shape, thanks mainly to their home record. While cash-
strapped Portsmouth have big problems on and off the pitch...

• Burnley have won more home games than the other teams around
  them in the relegation battle - 6 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats at
  Turf Moor. You have to go up to 12th in the table to find a team
  with a better home record (Blackburn)

• Portsmouth have lost 7 of their last 8 away games

Burnley have only been beaten once in their last 7 home games - and
that was by league leaders Chelsea.

As well as being bottom of the Premier League, Portsmouth are also
bottom on 'recent form' - they've lost 4 and drawn 2 of their last 6
games. And they've lost their last 5 away games in a row.

Portsmouth are 12/1 outsiders 'To Stay Up' this season, while
Burnley are 6/5 to avoid relegation. Burnley's home stats suggest
they can put another nail in Portsmouth's coffin this weekend.

The Bookings stats also highlight a bet in this game...

Cards and Booking Points

Just about the only thing Portsmouth have been winning the 'most' of
this season is Booking Points. They've have received the Most
Booking Points in 8 out of 13 away games (62%).

Burnley are averaging less Cards and Booking Points than opponents
per home games. And Portsmouth are averaging more per away game:

• Burnley home Booking Points = 9.2 Pts For and 16.3 Pts Against

• Portsmouth away Booking Points = 22.7 Pts For and 12.3 Pts
  Against

Burnley have only picked up the Most Booking Points in 2 of their
last 6 Premier League games. Portsmouth have picked up the Most
Booking Points in 4 of their last 6 games - and a Portsmouth player
has been shown the First Card in their last 8 games in a row.

Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic

Sat 27th Feb, 3pm
Ref: A.Taylor

Birmingham's First Goal Time stats are worth a closer look for this
one...

• The average First Goal Time for Birmingham home games is 45
  minutes (the Premier League average is 33 minutes)

• The Time of First Goal has been After 27th Minute in 10 out of
  13 Birmingham home games (77%)

Wigan's away figures are 50-50 - average time of 29 minutes and 6
out 13 away games seeing the First Goal scored after the 27th
minute.

But Birmingham's defensive record is the key here - less goals have
been scored at St Andrews (20) then at any other Premier League
ground this season. And they've conceded just 8 goals at home - no
other team has conceded less.

In Birmingham's 3-2 win at Wigan earlier in the season, the First
Goal came in the 33rd minute.

The recent form shows neither team has been finding the back of the
net very often - another good sign for a First Goal Time 'After'
bet. Birmingham have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 games.
Wigan have only scored 2 goals in their last 5 games

The First Goal has only been scored before the 27th minute in 3 of
the last 10 Birmingham games. Bets on After 27th Minute have paid in
10 out 13 games at St Andrews so far.

Also available - 'After 28th Minute' at Evens (2.00) with Bet365 and
Paddy Power.

Sunderland v Fulham

Sun 28th Feb, 3pm
Ref: M.Atkinson

The recent form makes it hard to pick a winner here. Sunderland
haven't won any of their last 13 games, and they've drawn 4 and lost
1 of their last 5 at the Stadium of Light. Fulham haven't won away
since the first day of the season, and have lost 4 and drawn 1 of
their last 5 away games.

With neither side racking up the wins, it's no surprise that the
Goals stats point to an 'Under' bet...

• Earlier in the season Fulham beat Sunderland 1-0 at Craven
  Cottage

Sunderland have only scored 3 goals in their last 5 home games, and
only 2 goals in their 5 most recent league games.

Fulham have failed to score in their last 3 away games in the
Premier League. And it's also worth noting that Fulham had a tough
game away in Portugal in the Europa League on Thursday night.

Bets on Under 2.5 Goals have paid out in 3 of Fulham's last 5
Premier League games - and in 5 Sunderland games in a row.

Sunderland's last 6 games at the Stadium of Light have gone Under
2.5 Goals - and 4 of those games have been Draws...

• The 0-0 draw is 8/1 with Stan James and the 1-1 Correct Score
  is 11/2

Liverpool v Blackburn Rovers

Sun 28th Feb, 3pm
Ref: A.Wiley

This game isn't live on TV - but Corner Handicap bets should be on
offer with a handful of bookies...

• Liverpool have won the Most Corners in 10 out of 13 games at
  Anfield - 77%

• Blackburn have only won the Most Corners in 3 out of 13 away
  games - 23%

At home, Liverpool are averaging 5.3 corners per game more than
opponents.

Blackburn's away record against the 'Big 4' Premier League teams
this season shows they're not doing too well on the corners front:

The bookies have given Liverpool a -4.5 Corner Handicap to beat for
Sunday's game. They've landed that bet in 8 out of 13 home games so
far - and it also would have paid out a winner in the away game at
Ewood Park, where Blackburn won 1 corner and Liverpool won 8.

For full Head-2-Head stats on this weekend's games - log in at the
members-only website...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

I'll write to you again on Monday with a look at the weekend's
results, the latest stats and the upcoming fixtures...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

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