The stats say - Time for a bet on Man Utd v Liverpool

Friday 19th March 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Midweek results...
  
• Time for a bet on Man Utd v Liverpool...
  
• 5 recommended bets for the weekend...
  
• Best odds on these Sunday scorers...

The game of the weekend takes place at Old Trafford on Sunday - Man
Utd v Liverpool...

The stats have highlighted a 'Goal Time' bet for us for that one. As
well as key trends for Everton v Bolton, Portsmouth v Hull, Aston
Villa v Wolves and Arsenal v West Ham. And for a full Head-2-Head
comparison for every game, log in at our website:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: ******

Midweek results

The trends went against us in both games on Monday and Tuesday
night:

Liverpool 4 Portsmouth 1

Cards = 2 yellows (20 Booking pts).

• FBD said: Over 3.5 Cards @ Evens - LOST

Wigan 1 Aston Villa 2

• FBD said: Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/13 - LOST

Standout stats for this weekend's games...

Let's start with the Saturday games...

Everton v Bolton Wanderers

Sat 20th March, 3pm
Ref: A.Wiley

There are strong Goals trends for this game...

• Everton home games are averaging 3.1 Total Goals per game

• Bolton away games are averaging 3.0 Total Goals

Everton have won their last 6 games in a row at Goodison Park, and
have scored at least 2 goals in each of those games. Their last 3
home games have been Over 2.5 Goals - beating Hull 5-1, Man Utd 3-1
and Chelsea 2-1.

• Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in Everton's last 5
  Premier League games in a row

• Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in 4 of the last 5 Bolton
  games

Bolton's last 3 away games have been Over 2.5 Goals. They've lost 4-
0 at Sunderland, won 2-1 at West Ham and lost 3-0 at Blackburn.

Earlier this season Bolton beat Everton 3-2 at the Reebok Stadium.
In the past couple of weeks both teams have been involved in high-
scoring games - there have been 10 goals scored in total Everton's
last 2 games, and 8 goals scored in Bolton's last 2 games.

Portsmouth v Hull

Sat 20th March, 3pm
Ref: P.Dowd

Both club's are going through tough times. Portsmouth are bottom of
the table and have just had 9 points deducted from them by the
Premier League for going in to financial administration. Hull are
also in the relegation zone, in 19th, and have just replaced Phiil
Brown with new manager Iain Dowie.

Portsmouth haven't won any of their last 5 home games and Hull
haven't won an away game all season - the Match Result looks hard to
call. However the Corners stats do highlight a good match-up for a
bet...

• 79% of Portsmouth home games have been Over 10.5 Corners - 11
  out of 14

• 73% of Hull away games have been Over 10.5 Corners - 11 out of
  15

• Both teams' games are averaging 12+ Total Corners per game

• There were 12 corners in the 0-0 draw between Hull and
  Portsmouth earlier this season

The recent form looks good here. There have been at least 11 corners
in 5 of the last 6 Portsmouth games and in 9 of the last 11 Hull
games.

Bets on Over 10.5 Corners would've paid out a winner in 4 of the
last 5 Portsmouth home games and in 4 of the last 5 Hull away games.

Look for Total Corners bets with Bet365, William Hill, Skybet and
Expekt.

Aston Villa v Wolves

Sat 20th March, 12.45pm - live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Clattenburg

The stats indicate this game could produce a 'high' Corner total...

• 71% (10 out of 14) Aston Villa's home games have gone Over
  10.5 Corners

• 71% (10 out of 14) Wolves away games have gone Over 10.5
  Corners

Aston Villa home games are producing an average of 12.8 corners -
and Wolves away games are averaging 11.9 corners.

• 4 of Aston Villa's last 5 home games have gone Over 10.5
  Corners

• 4 of Wolves' last 5 away games have gone Over 10.5 Corners

When these two met earlier in the season at Molineux the game ended
1-1 and produced 12 corners.

• Aston Villa in particular have been a good team for 'Over'
  corners bets this season - 9 of their last 10 Premier League games
  have had at least 11 Total Corners, and at home they are winning an
  average of 7 corners per game on their own

The bookies are certainly expecting a high corners game - Over 10.5
is short odds-on where available - 2/5 (1.40) with Victor Chandler
and just 1/5 (1.20) with Stan James. Over 11.5 Corners is 8/15
(1.53) with Extrabet. Over 12 is available with a handful of other
bookies...

There have been at least 14 corners in each of the last 3 Aston
Villa games and at least 15 corners in each of the last 3 Wolves
games.

Arsenal v West Ham Utd

Sat 20th March, 5.30pm - live on ESPN
Ref: M.Atkinson

Arsenal have drawn their last 2 games against West Ham - but they
are odds-on to win this weekend at just 1/4 (1.25). They've won 4 of
their last 5 home games, while West Ham have drawn 2 and lost 3 of
their last 5 away.

Arsenal's home corners stats are impressive...

• They've won the Most Corners in 13 out of 15 games at the
  Emirates Stadium - 87%

• Arsenal at home average 3.9 corners per game more than
  opponents

• Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 6 of their last 7 Premier
  League games

West Ham, in comparison, have only won the Most Corners in 4 out of
15 away games this season - 27% - and are conceding an average of
3.3 corners more than they win per away game.

Arsenal won 10 corners more than West Ham in this fixture last
season (13-3). The bookies have given them a -5 Corner Handicap to
overcome on Saturday

Arsenal won 6 corners more than Burnley in their last home game,
while West Ham lost the corner count 11-1 to Chelsea in their last
away game.

Manchester United v Liverpool

Sun 21st March, 1.30pm - live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: H.Webb

One of the biggest games on the Premier League fixture list - fierce
rivals Man Utd and Liverpool go head-to-head at Old Trafford on
Sunday afternoon...

Man Utd are top of the league and have won their last 7 home games
in a row. Liverpool are 15 points behind Man Utd in the table, but
do have a good recent record against United - beating them the last
3 times in a row in the league.

Man Utd have been scoring plenty of goals recently - led by top
scorer Wayne Rooney - with their last 7 games at Old Trafford all
going Over 2.5 Goals and with United scoring all the goals in those
games (7 'Wins To Nil' in a row at home).

However...

• In 6 of those 7 games, the First Goal hasn't been scored until
  After the 27th Minute

Liverpool on the other hand have been on a long run of low-scoring
games away from home. Their last 9 away games have all been Under
2.5 Goals...

• There has only been 1 goal scored Before the 27th Minute in
  those 9 games

For the season as whole, the Time of First Goal has been After 27th
Minute in 10 out of 15 Man Utd home games - 67%. And there have only
been 4 'early' goals in Liverpool's 15 away games - just 27% have
been Before the 27th Minute.

The data on our site also points to an 'After' bet:

• Average First Goal Time in Man Utd home games = 32 mins

• Average First Goal Time in Liverpool away games = 46 mins

Bets on 'After the 27th Minute' have paid out a winner in 4 of the
last 5 games at Old Trafford and in all of the last 5 Liverpool away
games where a goal has been scored.

Sunday scorers...

Some of the Premier League's top strikers are in action on Sunday
afternoon - here are the stats and odds for some of the in-form
scorers...

• Wayne Rooney (Man Utd) is the Premier League Top Scorer with
  25 goals. He's scored 11 goals in his last 10 games in all
  competitions. Rooney is Evens to Score at Anytime v Liverpool and
  10/3 to be the First Goalscorer

• Didier Drogba (Chelsea) is 2nd in the Top Scorer table with 21
  goals. He has scored 7 goals in 6 league games so far in 2010.
  Drogba is 10/11 to Score at Anytime v Blackburn and 7/2 to be the
  First Goalscorer

• Fernando Torres (Liverpool) has scored 5 goals in 5 games
  since returning from injury - including 2 against Lille in Europe on
  Thursday and 2 against Portsmouth on Monday. Torres is 11/5 to Score
  at Anytime v Man Utd and 13/2 to be the First Goalscorer v Man Utd

The best odds for all those players to score this weekend are with
Coral...

www.Coral.co.uk

There are 5 midweek Premier League games next week - I'll write to
you again on Monday with the latest results and a look at the
Tuesday and Wednesday night fixtures...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: ******

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