Cash-in on Man Utd v Chelsea this weekend

Thursday 1st April 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Birmingham v Arsenal last week - a correction...
  
• Wigan's 5/1 corner winner...
  
• 5 recommended bets for Easter weekend...
  
• Top Scorers to follow this weekend...

The highlight of the Easter weekend is without doubt the big game at
Old Trafford - 1st plays 2nd in the Premier League title race - it's
Man Utd v Chelsea...

Read on to find out what the stats say for that one, and for the
pick of the weekend's other games. There are 10 games over the
weekend - check our website for full stats and Head-2-Head
comparisons for all of them.

Log In at: www.FootballBettingData.co.uk

Password: *****

Before this week's action, a quick word on two games from last week.

Birmingham v Arsenal last week - Correction:

In Monday's results update I listed the recommended bet on Arsenal -
3 Corner Handicap v Birmingham as having 'Won.'

It seems there was some confusion over the final corners result in
that game. Our stats - and those on ESPN Soccernet.com - showed the
corners result as Birmingham 2 corners Arsenal 6 corners. However,
the BBC website showed the result as Birmingham 3 corners Arsenal 6
corners, and Skybet settled their market with this as the result.

Our recommended bet was with Skybet, and we've amended our results
accordingly:

• Arsenal -3 Corner Handicap @ Evens - LOST

Unfortunately the bookies are a law unto themselves with this kind
of thing, and bets are settled on their terms. But it's very rare
that different websites and bookies have different results for stats
such as corners - on this occasion we were just unlucky, as that
'missing' corner was the difference between a winning bet and a
losing one.

Wigan's 5/1 corner winner...

Man City beat Wigan 3-0 on Monday night, thanks to a Carlos Tevez
hat-trick. In Monday's email I mentioned Wigan had won the Most
Corners in their last 4 away games. Make that 5 now. They won the
corner count 4-3 at Man City. Wigan were 5/1 to win the Most Corners
in that game and Evens with a +4 Corner Handicap. This weekend Wigan
are away at Fulham.

Here are the standout stats - and our recommended bets - for the
Easter weekend...

Man Utd v Chelsea

Sat 3rd April, 12.45pm - Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Dean

Man Utd top scorer Wayne Rooney is out injured for the big game, but
the stats say we can still expect goals at Old Trafford on
Saturday...

Chelsea in particular have been scoring for fun recently, and
they've been conceding too - keeping only 1 'Clean Sheet' in their
last 5 games.

• 4 of the last 5 Man Utd games have been Over 2.5 Goals

• 4 of the last 5 Chelsea games have been Over 2.5 Goals

Man Utd home games are averaging 3.4 Total Goals. The figure for
Chelsea away games is 2.8 goals. United's home record against the
other teams at the top of the Premier League also points to a 'high
goals' game this weekend:

Man Utd 2 Arsenal 1
Man Utd 4 Man City 3
Man Utd 2 Liverpool 1

Chelsea have lost 3-0 away at Arsenal and 2-1 away at Man City -
both those games also paid out on Over 2.5 Goals bets.

Chelsea (82 Goals For) and Man Utd (76) are the Premier League's top
scoring sides this season. Man Utd have scored in their last 16
games in a row and Chelsea have found the net in all of their last
13.

United hit 4 goals away at Bolton last week (without Rooney) and
Chelsea put 7 past Aston Villa.

Bolton v Aston Villa

Sat 3rd April, 3pm
Ref: M.Jones

Aston Villa have been a consistent team for 'high corners' bets this
season, and the stats say this could be another 'Over' game...

• 3 of the last 5 Bolton home games have been Over 10.5 Corners

• The last 6 Aston Villa games have all been Over 10.5 Corners

The Head-2-Head stats on our site show both teams' games are
averaging 12 or more Total Corners, and that bets on Over 10.5
Corners have paid out a winner in 63% of Bolton home games and a
high 80% of Aston Villa away games.

Last weekend there were 17 corners in Bolton's home defeat by Man
Utd, with Bolton winning 11 corners on their own. There were 14
corners in Aston Villa's defeat at Chelsea.

Everton v West Ham

Sun 4th April, 4pm - Live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: H.Webb

Everton are odds-on favourites for a home win here. They've won
their last 7 games in a row at Goodison Park, while West Ham have
lost their last 4 away games.

West Ham are in freefall, they've lost 6 games in a row and are only
above the relegation places on goal difference right now. They've
conceded 15 goals and scored just 3 in those last 6 games.

Everton have scored 18 goals and conceded just 3 during their run of
7 consecutive home wins.

• Everton have won by more than 1 goal in 6 of their last 7 home
  games

• West Ham have been beaten by more than 1 goal in 3 of their
  last 4 away games, and in 4 of their last 6 Premier League games
  overall

Everton are 4/9 (1.44) to win the game, and 5/4 (2.25) with a -1
Match Handicap - to win by more than 1 goal.

Portsmouth v Blackburn

Sat 3rd April, 3pm
Ref: S.Bennett

Both teams have matching recent home v away form - Portsmouth have
won 1 drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games at Fratton Park and
Blackburn have won 1 drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away. The
Goals stats highlight a bet for this one...

• Portsmouth home games are averaging 3.1 Total Goals

• Blackburn away games are averaging 3.0 Total Goals

Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in 56% of Portsmouth home games
and 63% of Blackburn away games this season. Earlier this season
there were 4 goals in the reverse fixture at Ewood Park, with
Blackburn winning 3-1.

• 4 of the last 5 Portsmouth home games and 3 of the last 5
  Blackburn away games have been Over 2.5 Goals

Bets on Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in 6 of Portsmouth's last 7
games. The stats point to another 'Over' bet this weekend.

Fulham v Wigan

Sun 4th April, 3pm
Ref: M.Clattenburg

The average number of Total Corners per game in the Premier League
is 11.2. Both Fulham and Wigan have below-average figures...

• Fulham home average = 8.7 Total Corners

• Wigan away average = 9.9 Total Corners

There have been 10 or less corners in 6 of the last 8 Fulham games.
And bets on Under 10.5 Corners have paid out in the majority of both
teams' recent games:

• 4 of the last 5 Fulham home games and 4 of the last 5 Wigan
  away games have been Under 10.5 Corners

There were just 6 corners in Fulham's last game at Craven Cottage, v
Man City. And in Wigan's last away game, also against Man City,
there were 7 corners.

Top Scorers to follow this weekend...

With Wayne Rooney out injured, here are the in-form players to
follow for Anytime Scorer and First Goalscorer bets this weekend.

Didier Drogba (Chelsea) v Man Utd

• Drogba has scored 9 goals in 8 league games since the turn of
  the year. He's 13/8 to Score Anytime and 5/1 to be the First
  Goalscorer with Paddy Power

Darren Bent (Sunderland) v Tottenham

• The Stadium of Light is the place to back Bent to score - 14
  of his 20 Premier League goals have been scored at home this season.
  He's 2/1 to Score Anytime and 6/1 to be the First Goalscorer with
  Coral

Niko Kranjcar (Tottenham) v Sunderland

• Kranjcar is Tottenham's joint-2nd top scorer with 6 league
  goals to his name. He has scored in his last 2 games. Kranjcar is
  3/1 to Score Anytime with Ladbrokes and 17/2 with Bet365 to be the
  First Goalscorer

Carlos Tevez (Man City) v Burnley

• Tevez has 19 Premier League goals this season. He scored a
  hat-trick against Wigan on Monday night and has got 10 goals in his
  last 10 games in all competitions. Tevez is 11/10 to Score Anytime
  and 4/1 to be the First Goalscorer with Bet365 and Coral

Fernando Torres (Liverpool) v Birmingham

• Torres has scored 7 goals in his last 4 games in all
  competitions since returning from injury. He's 6/5 to Score Anytime
  and 7/2 to be the First Goalscorer with Coral

Find the best odds on all your Premier League bets here...

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-
league/

It's a Bank Holiday weekend so I'll be back in touch on Tuesday 6th
April with all the latest results from the Premier League. For the
up-to-date stats for every team and every game, log in at our site:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

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