Four ways to win on Sunday afternoon

Friday 9th April 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• 4 ways to win this Sunday...
  
• Recommended bets on both Sky Sports games...
  
• 2 Top Scorers to follow...

It's the FA Cup semi finals this weekend so there are just 6 games in the
Premier League. Our standout stats are for the 4 games being played on
Sunday, including both the live TV games - Blackburn v Man Utd and Man
City v Birmingham...

For full Head-2-Head stats for every game, log-in at our website:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

I'll start with the Sunday lunchtime kick off at Wolves...

Wolves v Stoke

Sun 11th April, 12pm
Ref: C.Foy

It was 2-2 when these sides met at Stoke earlier in the season, but the
stats clearly point to a 'low goals' bet for this weekend's game...

• 8 of the last 10 Wolves home games have been Under 2.5 Goals -
  including the last 6 games in a row at Molineux
  
  
• 8 of the last 10 Stoke away games have also been Under 2.5 Goals -
  including 4 of their 5 most recent away games
  
  
• 75% of Wolves home games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals bets this
  season
  
  
• 80% of Stoke away games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals bets

Wolves home games average 1.9 Total Goals per game. The figure for Stoke
away games in 1.7 Total Goals.

Wolves drew their last home game 0-0 with Everton, while Stoke won 1-0 at
West Ham on their last away trip.

Blackburn v Man Utd

Sun 11th April, 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: P.Walton

Blackburn have been in good form at home, winning 6 and drawing 1 of
their last 7 games at Ewood Park. Man Utd come into this one after a
tough week, having lost to Chelsea, been knocked out the Champions League
by Bayern Munich and with injury doubts over their star player and top
scorer Wayne Rooney.

The Corners stats highlight a bet for us here...

Blackburn have only won the Most Corners in 1 of their last 7 games at
Ewood Park. Man Utd on the other hand have won the Most Corners in 5 of
their last 7 away games, and have been strong corner winners all
season...

• Man Utd have won the Most Corners in 12 out of 16 away games (75%) and are winning an average of 3.6 corners per game more than opponents.
  
  
• Man Utd have won the Most Corners in 26 out of 33 Premier League
  games overall this season - a strong 79% record.

When Man Utd beat Blackburn 2-0 at Old Trafford earlier in the season
they won 5 corners more than them (7-2).

And it's worth noting that Blackburn have struggled to win many corners
at all against the 'big clubs' home and away this season. They have been
'out-cornered' 11-3 at home by Chelsea and 8-1 at home by Liverpool, 8-1
away at Arsenal and 8-0 at Chelsea.

Liverpool v Fulham

Sun 11th April, 3pm
Ref: A.Marriner

Fulham beat Liverpool 3-1 at Craven Cottage earlier this season. But
before that game, Fulham had failed to score against Liverpool in 4 games
over the past 2 seasons - and the stats and recent form point to a home
win on Sunday...

• Both teams played in the Europa League on Thursday night. Liverpool
  won at home v Benfica, while Fulham won away in Germany (v
  Wolfsburg)

With Fulham's poor away record, it's not surprising the bookies make them
as big as 12/1 to win at Anfield. Fulham haven't scored in any of their
last 6 away games.

Liverpool home Premier League record:
Won 12 Drawn 2 Lost 2
+27 Goal Difference

Fulham away Premier League record:
Won 1 Drawn 6 Lost 9
-14 Goal Difference

• Liverpool have won their last 8 games in a row at Anfield. They've
  won 5 of those games 'To Nil' and won 5 of them by more than 1 goal.

For the season as a whole, 8 out of 12 Liverpool home wins have been 'To
Nil' and the same amount have also been by more than 1 goal - 67%.

Fulham have been beaten 'To Nil' in 6 out of 9 away defeats, and they've
lost by more then 1 goal in 5 of those 9 games.

Liverpool won their last home game 3-0 v Sunderland, who are just 1 place
behind Fulham in the Premier League table. In recent weeks Fulham have
lost 2-0 at Hull (where they were accused of fielding a 'weakened' team)
and 3-0 at Man Utd.

• Liverpool are around 10/11 (1.91) 'To Win To Nil' and the same
  price to win by more than 1 goal ('-1.5 Asian Handicap')

It's worth noting that Liverpool have only kept a Clean Sheet in 2 of
their last 10 games in all competitions - and that Fulham have been
beaten by more than 1 goal in their last 4 of their last 5 away games in all
competitions. With that in mind, the Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap bet
looks the best option.

Man City v Birmingham

Sun 11th April, 4pm live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: P.Dowd

Man City are leading the race for 4th place in the Premier League - and
qualification for the Champions League - while after a solid first season
back in the top flight, Birmingham look set to finish in the top half of
the table.

Man City have been a reliable corner winner at the City of Manchester
Stadium this season...

• Man City have won the Most Corners in 12 out of 16 home games
  - 75%
  
  
• Birmingham have only won the Most Corners in 3 out of 16 away
  games - 19%

In recent weeks, Man City have won the Most Corners in 4 of their last 5
home games. And for the season overall, they are averaging over 2 corners
per game more than opponents:

• Man City home Corners Margin = +2.3
  
  
• Birmingham away Corners Margin = -2.7

Man City won 4 corners more than Birmingham in the game at St Andrews
earlier this season (4-8).

Birmingham don't have a great corners record against the top sides this
season, having been 'out-cornered' 7-3 at Arsenal, 8-3 at Chelsea, 13-2
at Man Utd, 7-3 at Tottenham and 11-1 at Liverpool. In all those games,
bets on Birmingham's opponent with a -2 Corner Handicap would've paid out
a winner.

Top Scorers to follow this weekend

With Wayne Rooney not fully fit, and Didier Drogba and Chelsea playing in
the FA Cup, here are the top 2 strikers to look out for in the Premier
League this weekend...

Fernando Torres (Liverpool) v Fulham

• Torres has scored 5 goals in his last 4 Premier League games, with
  4 of them scored at home. Torres is the bookies' 8/11 favourite to
  score Anytime and he's 5/2 with Stan James to be the
  First Goalscorer

Carlos Tevez (Man City) v Birmingham

• Tevez is having a great end to the season - he's scored 21 goals in
  his last 20 games in all competitions. Tevez is 5/6 with Coral to score
  Anytime and 10/3 to be the First Goalscorer

Find the best odds for all your Premier League bets here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-league/

There are 4 midweek games next week, including Tottenham v Arsenal on
Wednesday night. I'll write to you again on Monday with the results from
the weekend and a look ahead to those games...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk      Password: *****

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