How to profit from 7 Premier League games this weekend

Friday 23rd April 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Wednesday night winner...
  
• 6 standout stats for the weekend...
  
• Cash-in on this 'dead game' at 8/1...

There's a full Premier League schedule to get stuck in to this weekend,
including the big games in the title race live on Sky Sports - Man Utd
v Tottenham on Saturday and Chelsea v Stoke on Sunday. Read on for the
standout stats and my recommended bets.

Wednesday night winner...

The stats have already given us 3 out of 3 winning bets this week, with
the latest being the Wednesday night game at Hull.

Hull 0 Aston Villa 2

Total Corners = 20.

• FBD said: 'Asian Total Corners - Over 12' @ 19/20 - WON

See my Aston Villa v Birmingham preview below for more on Villa's
phenomenal 'high corners' record. But first up - a look at the
weekend's opening game at Old Trafford...

Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur

Sat 24th April, 12.45pm live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: A.Marriner

This is a big game for both clubs - Man Utd are a point behind Chelsea
in the title race and Tottenham are trying to secure 4th place and
Champions League qualification. With so much at stake it's hard to
predict which way this one will go, but the stats certainly suggest
they'll be goals...

• Last 9 Man Utd home games have been Over 2.5 Goals
  
  
• Last 3 Tottenham away games have been Over 2.5 Goals
  
  
• 7 of the last 8 Tottenham games have been Over 2.5 Goals

For the season as a whole, 82% of games at Old Trafford have been Over
2.5 Goals and 63% of Tottenham away games have been Over 2.5 Goals.

Man Utd home games average Total Goals = 3.20.
Tottenham away games average Total Goals = 2.80.

There were 3 goals in United's last home game (lost 1-2 to Chelsea),
and 4 goals in Spur's last away game (lost 3-1 at Sunderland). Man Utd
beat Spurs 3-1 at White Hart Lane earlier this season, and the stats
point to another 'high goals' game this weekend.

Hull City v Sunderland

Sat 24th April, 3pm
Ref: P.Walton

If Hull are going to avoid relegation then they need to start winning
right now - they are 3 points off safety with inferior goal difference
to all the teams above them. Sunderland are safe and in 13th place.

Both teams have a great record for 'early goals' bets - check out these
recent results...

• First Goal scored Before 28th Minute in 9 of the last 10
  Hull games

The First Goal has been scored Before 28th Minute in 4 of Hull's last 5
home games. In fact, in each of those 4 games, the 'latest' time the
First Goal was scored was in the 16th minute.

• First Goal scored Before 28th Minute in 8 of the last 10
  Sunderland games
  
  
• First Goal scored Before 28th Minute in 4 of Sunderland's
  last 5 away games

Hull home average First Goal Time = 28 mins.

Sunderland away average First Goal Time = 23 mins.

Earlier in the season Sunderland beat Hull 4-1 at the Stadium of Light,
with Darren Bent opening the scoring in the 13th minute. Hull played
Aston Villa on Wednesday night and were a goal down after 13 minutes.
This weekend you can bet on the First Goal coming in the first half-
hour of play.

Aston Villa v Birmingham

Sun 25th April, 12pm live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: C.Foy

Aston Villa extended an amazing form-line in Corners on Wednesday night
at Hull. The game produced a massive 20 Corners and was Villa's 10th in
a row that has produced 12 or more corners. And Birmingham's own
Corners figures match up well for another big total...

• 8 of the last 10 Aston Villa home games have been Over 
  10.5 Corners
  
  
• 7 of the last 10 Birmingham away games have been Over 
  10.5 Corners
  
  
• 70.6% of Birmingham's away games this season have produced
  Over 10.5 Corners

Aston Villa's Corners stats have produced winning bet after winning bet
in recent weeks - Over 10, Over 10.5, Over 11 and Over 11.5 Corners
bets have paid out in 16 of their last 17 games.

Over 12 Corners bets have paid out in 9 of the last 10 Villa games.

FBD says:

* 'Over 12.5 Corners' @ Evens (2.00) with Extrabet

This bet wins if there are 13 or more corners in the game. Over 12 or
Over 12.5 Corners bets also available with William Hill, Coral, Stan
James, Blue Square, 888 Sport and Bet365.

Everton v Fulham

Sun 25th April, 3pm
Ref: P.Dowd

Fulham's away form points the way to several options in this game...

• Fulham haven't scored in any of their last 7 away games in the
  Premier League
  
  
• Fulham have drawn their last 3 games in all competitions 0-0

Everton have won 7 of their last 8 games at Goodison Park. The home win
is 4/9 (1.44), but there looks to be better value for money in the
'stats markets'...

Everton to keep a 'Clean Sheet' is 5/6 (1.83) and Everton 'To Win To
Nil' is 11/10 (2.10). And for big odds, check out both teams' matching
'Correct Score' records:

• 4 of Everton's 9 home wins have been by a 2-0 score-line
  
  
• 4 of Fulham's 9 away defeats have been by a 2-0 score-line
  
  
• The 2-0 Everton 'Correct Score' is 6/1 with Ladbrokes this weekend

And for Scorer bets, it's worth noting that Everton's Tim Cahill has
scored 4 goals in his last 5 Premier League games. He's 7/4 with (2.75)
with Bet365 to Score Anytime and 11/2 (6.50) to be the First
Goalscorer.

All those options are worth considering for Sunday's game. But the
'Clean Sheet' bet looks the pick of the bunch considering Fulham's
habit of grinding out 0-0 draws and the fact they haven't scored an
away goal since 5th January.

Bets on their opponents to keep a 'Clean Sheet' have paid out in the
last 7 Fulham away games in a row.

Chelsea v Stoke

Sun 25th April, 4pm live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: S.Bennett

After slipping up at Spurs last Saturday, league leaders Chelsea need
to go all out for 3 points in the final game of the weekend. The stats
highlight 2 bets...

• Chelsea have won the Most Corners in 13 out of 17 games at
  Stamford Bridge - 76%

In 9 of those 13 games, Chelsea have covered a -4 Corner Handicap
(winning at least 5 corners more than opponents).

• Stoke have only won the Most Corners in 3 out of 16 away games -
  19%

In Stoke's away games at the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham
they have been out-cornered by at least 5 corners - landing bets on
their opponent with a -4 Corner Handicap.

Earlier this season Chelsea won 2-1 at Stoke, winning a whopping 10
corners more than them (4-14).

Chelsea with a -4 Corner Handicap is available with William Hill and
other options will be on offer at Skybet, Paddy Power, Stan James,
Betfred, Boylesports, Expekt and Bet365 over the weekend.

The other standout bet for this game is in the First Card market...

Chelsea have only received the First Card in 1 of their last 11 games
at Stamford Bridge. And for the season as whole, they've picked up the
First Card in just 12% of home games (the Premier League average is
37%).

In comparison, Stoke have received the First Card in 6 of their last 19
away games, and in a high 75% of away games over the course of the
season (the Premier League average is 55%).

The stats paint a pretty clear picture there - Stoke to get the First
Card.

Cash-in on an end-of-season 'dead rubber'...

Wolves v Blackburn
Sat 24th April, 3pm
Ref: L.Probert

Wolves v Blackburn is an interesting fixture this weekend. Wolves are 6
pts above the relegation zone with just 9 pts left to play for - so
look fairly safe now - and Blackburn are cruising in 12th place.

Home fans haven't had much to celebrate at Wolves recently - their
teams have only scored 1 goal in their last 8 home games. No surprise
then that bets on Under 2.5 Goals have paid out in the last 7 games in
a row at Molineux.

Under 2.5 Goals is an 8/13-shot this weekend (1.62).

Blackburn's last 2 away results have been a 0-0 draw at Portsmouth and
a 1-0 win at Burnley - both teams that are, like Wolves, at the wrong
end of the Premier League table.

• 3 of the last 4 Wolves games have been 0-0 draws
  
  
• 2 of the last 3 Blackburn games have been 0-0 draws

Given the 'setting' for this game and both teams' recent results, the
0-0 'Correct Score' is worth considering. That option is 8/1 with a
handful of bookies including Ladbrokes and Stan James.

Going on from that - bets on the 'Draw' have paid out in 4 of the last
6 Wolves games and 3 of the last 6 Blackburn games. With neither team
desperate for the win here, another Draw doesn't look out of the
question.

Wolves v Blackburn to be a Draw is 23/10 (3.30) with Ladbrokes,
Betfred, Totesport and Skybet.

And finally...

Wolves have been 'keeping it clean' lately, with their last 6 home games
and 9 of their last 11 games overall paying out on Under 3.5 Cards
bets. There were No Cards at all in their last home game v Stoke. And 2
of the last 4 Premier League games that Referee Lee Probert has taken
charge of have also been 'No Cards' games.

Under 3.5 Cards is available at 8/15 (1.53) with Bet365.

In summary - those options for Wolves v Blackburn:

• Under 3.5 Cards
  
• Under 2.5 Goals
  
• Draw
  
• Correct Score

The 0-0 Correct Score looks tempting at 8/1, as does the Draw at 23/10.

And you might want to consider mixing and matching some options where
possible, to boost your odds. For example at Bet365 a Double on the
Draw and Under 3.5 Cards pays out at around 4/1 if successful. And a
Double on Under 3.5 Cards and Under 2.5 Goals pays over 7/5 (2.40).

Find the best odds on all bets for Wolves v Blackburn here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/

For the Head-2-Head stats for every game, log-in at our website:

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I'll be back on Monday with a look at the weekend results...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

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