This weekend - bank on a 5-star end to the season

Friday 7th May 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Wednesday results - Tottenham clinch 4th place...
  
• 5 recommended bets for the last day of the season...
  
• 5 Top Scorers to follow this weekend...
  
• 5 potential 'low Bookings' games...

It's the last day of the season on Sunday, and with relegation and
4th place battles done and dusted - there's just the small matter of
the Premier League Winner to resolve...

Chelsea know that a win over Wigan will see them crowned Champions
at Stamford Bridge. Man Utd need to beat Stoke and hope that Chelsea
slip up. The bookies don't think that's going to happen - the
Londoners are 1/10 to win the title. See below for the standout
stats for the Chelsea v Wigan game - plus the pick of the bets from
the other 9 games on the final day.

In today's '5-star' bumper edition of Football Betting Data I've got
5 recommended bets for you, plus 5 players to follow for scorer bets
and 5 games to look at for 'low Bookings' bets...

Wednesday results - Tottenham clinch 4th place...

Tottenham won at Man City on Wednesday night, and in doing so
secured a Champions League qualification spot for next season. Peter
Crouch's winning goal means Spurs will finish in the Top 4, and is
estimated to be worth around £30 million for his club.

We had 2 recommended bet on Wednesday - here are the results.

Fulham 0 Stoke 1

Total Cards = 4 Yellows. Total Booking Points = 40 pts.

FBD said: 'Under 2.5 Cards' @ 4/6 - LOST

This one was a 'near miss.' There had been just 2 Yellow Cards,
until injury time at the end of the game, when Fulham's Aaron Hughes
and Stoke's Ricardo Fuller were both booked.

Man City 0 Tottenham 1

Total Corners = 17.

FBD said: 'Over 10.5 Corners' @ 4/7 - WON

There was a high corners total in this one - 17 - landing all
options available with the bookies, Over 10.5, Over 11 and Over 12
Corners.

Cash-in on the last day of the season...

There are some season-long trends to cash-in on this weekend - as
well as some 'dead' games to watch out for. Here are the standout
stats for the last day of the season. Every game kicks off at the
same time, 4pm on Sunday. The bookies haven't got their stats
markets up for all the games yet, so I've listed the best places to
look for each bet.

For the Head-2-Head stats on all 10 fixtures, log-in at our site:

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

Chelsea v Wigan

Sun 9th May, 4pm live on Sky Sports 1
Ref: M.Atkinson

The 'situation' here is simple - if Chelsea win, they win the
Premier League. As the match odds show, the bookies don't give Wigan
a chance here. Wigan have pulled off some great wins against the top
teams up at their DW Stadium this season - beating Chelsea,
Liverpool and Arsenal. But their away record against the top sides
is abysmal. Take a look at these results:

Man Utd 5 Wigan 0
Arsenal 4 Wigan 0
Tottenham 9 Wigan 1
Man City 3 Wigan 0

In comparison, take a look at some of the hammerings Chelsea have
dished out at Stamford Bridge this season:

Chelsea 7 Aston Villa 1
Chelsea 5 Blackburn 0
Chelsea 7 Stoke 0
Chelsea 7 Sunderland 2

Chelsea are the Premier League's top scorers with 95 Goals For (13
more than Man Utd, who are 2nd), and the top home scorers with 60
Goals For (12 more than Man Utd) and an average of 3.3 per game.
'Over 2.5 Goals' is just 2/5 (1.40) with the bookies for Sunday's
game.

The stats say this game looks like an opportunity for Chelsea to
wrap up the league title in style. Here are some of the options
available with the bookies, based on a 'big win' for Chelsea...

• 'Home Team Total Goals - Over 3.5' @ 7/4 with Sportingbet -
  wins if Chelsea score 4 or more goals. Chelsea have scored 4 or more
  goals in 3 of their last 4 home games.

• 'Chelsea -2 Handicap' @ 10/11 - wins if Chelsea beat Wigan by
  more than 2 goals. That bet would've won in all the games listed
  above, in 9 of the 16 games that Chelsea have won at Stamford Bridge
  and in 6 of the 13 away games that Wigan have lost.

• For bigger odds, consider the 'Correct Score' options -
  Chelsea are 7/1 to win 3-0 and 8/1 to win 4-0 (both with Stan
  James)

Arsenal v Fulham

Sun 9th May, 4pm
Ref: M.Jones

Arsenal are in 3rd place, 2 points clear of rivals Tottenham, so
they need a win to be sure of 3rd spot and automatic Champions
League qualification. Fulham have only won 1 away game all season -
and will no doubt have their minds on next week's Europa League
final.

Depending on the size of the 'Corner Handicap' on offer with the
bookies for Sunday's game, Arsenal look like the team to back...

• Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 10 of their last 11
  games, and in 16 out of 18 home games this season (89%).
  They win on average 3.9 corners per game more than opponents
  at the Emirates stadium.

• Fulham have only won the Most Corners in 1 of their last 5
  away games, and in just 5 out of 18 away games all season (28%).
  They average 2.7 corners less than opponents per away game.

Bets on Arsenal with a '-3 Corner Handicap' would've paid out a
winner in 12 of their 18 home games. The same bet on Fulham's
opponents would have paid out in 50% of their away games.

Aston Villa v Blackburn

Sun 9th May, 4pm
Ref: S.Bennett

• There have been at least 12 corners in 18 of the last 19 Aston
  Villa games...

• For the season as a whole, bets on 'Over 10.5 Corners' have
  paid out in 81% of all Villa games - making that one of the most
  consistent bets in the Premier League...

There were 11 corners in Blackburn's 2-1 win over Villa at Ewood
Park this season, and 13 corners in their game against Arsenal last
weekend.

There have been some high Total Corners results in Villa's recent
games: 17, 12, 20, 13 and 14 in their last 5 games.

Sunday's game is the last chance to cash-in on Villa's impressive
Corners record this season...

Everton v Portsmouth

Sun 9th May, 4pm
Ref: P.Walton

Other than Everton wanting to wrap up the season with a win in front
of their home fans, there isn't much to play for in this game.
Everton will finish 8th in the table whatever happens this weekend,
and Portsmouth will finish bottom.

The Corners stats highlight an opportunity for a bet though. Take a
look at this season-long trend...

• Portsmouth have only won the Most Corners in 1 of their 18
  away games - and that was back in their first away game of the
  season

Everton have been pretty solid at home, wining the Most Corners in
11 out of 18 games (61%), and in 3 of their last 5 games at Goodison
Park.

Portsmouth are conceding an average of 3.4 corners more than they
win per away game. Here are their corners results for their last 4
away games: lost 12-5, 8-3, 11-2 and 8-4. In each of those games,
bets on their opponent with a '-3 Corner Handicap' would have paid
out a winner.

Wolves v Sunderland

Sun 9th May, 4pm
Ref: L.Mason

Sunderland have been a good team to follow for 'First Card' and
'Most Booking Points' bets this season, and this game looks like a
good opportunity to cash-in on those records one more time...

• Sunderland have received the Most Booking Points in each of
  their last 6 games, and the First Card in 5 of their last 6 games

• For the season as a whole, Sunderland have received the Most
  Booking Points in 15 out of 18 away games (83%) and the First
  Card in 67% of games

Wolves on the other hand have been well behaved. They have picked up
the Most Booking Points and First Card in 2 of their last 5 games.
At home, they have only received the Most Booking Points in 33% of
games, and the First Card in 38%.

Wolves average just over 1 Yellow Card per game at Molineux (13.1
Booking Points For), while Sunderland average almost 3 Yellow Cards
per away game (28.1 Booking Points For).

The 'Most Booking Points' bet looks the best option, as it covers
the whole game.

Scorers to follow on the final day...

With just 1 game left to play, here's how the race for the Premier
League 'Golden Boot' looks:

• Coral have the best odds on offer for 'First Goalscorer' bets
  this weekend. Rooney is 9/4, Drogba 11/4, Bent 9/2, Tevez 4/1 and
  Lampard 9/2.

Drogba and Rooney are neck and neck on 26 goals, and both are an
Even money chance with Stan James to be crowned overall Top Scorer
for the season. Darren Bent is 25/1 with Bet365 to pip them both on
the final day.

For this weekend's games, it's no surprise that Drogba and Rooney
are both odds-on to score against Wigan and Stoke respectively.
However...

• Lampard and Bent have been in the best goal-scoring form
  recently - having both scored 4 goals in their last 5 games - and
  are available at bigger odds.

Check here for the best odds on all your Premier League bets,
including First Goalscorers and Anytime Scorers...

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-
league/

Look out for 'low Bookings' games this weekend...

With little to play for in several of Sunday's games, I'd expect
there to be a few 'low Bookings' games around. Last weekend 8 of the
10 Premier League games went 'Under 3.5 Cards' (Under 35.5 Booking
Points).

Based on the season-long trends and recent results, here are the
games to look out for 'Under' bets for the Total Cards and Total
Booking Points this weekend...

Bolton v Birmingham
Ref: K.Friend

50% of Bolton home games and 78% of Birmingham away games have been
Under 35.5 Booking Pts this season. Bets on 'Under 3.5 Cards' would
have paid out a winner in 5 of the last 6 Bolton games and 4 of the
last 5 Birmingham games.

Burnley v Tottenham
Ref: M.Dean

78% of Burnley home games and 56% of Tottenham away games have been
Under 35.5 Booking Points. Bets on 'Under 3.5 Cards' would have paid
out a winner in 3 of the last 5 Burnley games and in Spurs' last 3
games in a row.

Man Utd v Stoke
Ref: M.Clattenburg     

61% of Man Utd home games and 67% of Stoke away games have been
Under 35.5 Booking Points. Bets on 'Under 3.5 Cards' would have paid
out a winner in the last 4 Man Utd games in a row, and in 4 of the
last 5 Stoke games. The Referee for this one is Mark Clattenburg -
bets on 'Under 3.5 Cards' would've paid out in 8 of the last 10
Premier League games that he's been in charge of.

West Ham v Man City
Ref: H.Webb

West Ham's last 3 games and 5 of the last 6 Man City games have been
'Under 3.5 Cards.' There were 2 Yellow Cards (20 pts) when City
played West ham earlier in the season.

Everton v Portsmouth
Ref: P.Walton

50% of Everton home games and 67% of Portsmouth away games have been
Under 35.5 Booking Points. Bets on 'Under 3.5 Cards' would've paid
out a winner in 5 of the last 6 Portsmouth games, and in 3 of the
last 4 Premier League games that the Referee, Peter Walton has been
in charge of.

• Look for Total Cards and Total Booking Points 'Under' bets
  with the likes of Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Skybet and Stan
  James this weekend

For the full stats on every team and every game, log-in at the
website... 

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

And for the best odds on every game, go here...

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/premier-
league/

Enjoy the final day of the season - I'll be back in touch on Monday
with the Premier League results, plus news on the FA Cup final next
weekend, and the World Cup - which is just 34 days away...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk            Password: *****

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