Do not place a bet on the FA Cup Final until you've read this...
Friday 14th May
In today's Football Betting Data email we'll be taking a close look
at tomorrow's FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Portsmouth.
The bookies don't give Pompey much hope of pulling off a shock.
Avram Grant's men are 14/1 to lift the trophy they won back in
2008 - in normal time.
But the beauty of the FA Cup is that it's a one-off game and
anything can happen - after all, not many people gave Portsmouth a
chance of beating Tottenham in the Semi Finals.
Here's what both teams season long stats say about tomorrow's
game...
Chelsea v Portsmouth
Sat 15th May, 3pm - live on ITV1
Referee. C. Foy
Match odds:
Chelsea Draw Portsmouth
1/5 13/2 14/1
Match Result
As we can see Chelsea are odds-on to win the trophy within the 90
minutes. There's not much value there at 1/5.
You can boost your odds on Chelsea by backing them to 'Win To Nil'
@ 8/11 with Paddy Power.
Chelsea kept 18 Clean Sheets in the Premier League this season. 16
of their 27 victories were 'To Nil'. Chelsea ended the season
winning 4 of their last 5 games without conceding a goal.
Goals
Chelsea scored a record breaking 103 goals in the Premier League.
They finished the season in free-scoring form - bagging 19 goals in
their last 5 games including the 8-0 thrashing of Wigan on the
final day.
- 71% of Chelsea's games this season went Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea's games produced an average of 3.55 goals this season.
Portsmouth's games averaged 2.58 goals.
Both meetings between these two clubs this season went Over 2.5
Goals. It was 2-1 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and 5-0 to the
Premier League champions at Fratton Park.
You can get the best odds on this game going Over 2.5 Goals here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/fa-cup/final/
Corners
The stats indicate a 'high' corner total in tomorrow's final...
-
68% of Chelsea's games went Over 10.5 Corners this season
-
73% of Portsmouth's games went Over 10.5 Corner this season
Chelsea games produced an average of 11.6 corners. Portsmouth games
averaged 12.2 corners.
You can get 8/11 with Stan James that tomorrow's game goes Over
10.5 Corners.
Sticking with Corners there could also be an opportunity on the
Corner Handicap market...
-
Chelsea won the Most Corners in 71% (27/38) of their games
this season -
Portsmouth only won the Most Corners in 28% (11/38) of their
games
Chelsea averaged over 3 (+3.3) corners more than their opponents in
the Premier League while Portsmouth were out-cornered by over 2 (-
2.3) corners more by their opponents.
Most of the bookies have given Chelsea a '-4 Corner Handicap' in
tomorrow's final but you can get back them with a '-3 Corner
Handicap' at 8/13 with William Hill. That bet would have paid out a
winner in both of the games between these two in the Premier League
this season.
Bookings/ Cards
It look's like Bet365 have got their 3.5 Cards line dead right for
this one. Chelsea games averaged 34.3 Booking Points (3 Yellow
Cards) this season. Portsmouth games averaged 36.8 Booking Points
(3 Yellow Cards).
Coming in to the final, Portsmouth's last 5 games have all gone
Under 3.5 Cards/ 35 Booking Points. In fact all 5 produced Under
2.5 Cards/ 25 Booking Points. However those were in games were
Portsmouth had little to play for plus players probably had their
minds focused on not missing the FA Cup final due to injury or
suspension.
3 of Chelsea's last 5 games have gone Over 4.5 Cards/ 45 Booking
Points the other 2 produced a total of 3 Cards/ 30 Booking Points.
You can get 7/4 with Stan James that the match produces between 21
and 46 Booking Points.
Click here for all the latest odds on this game:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/fa-cup/final/
Goalscorers
It's not surprising to see Chelsea players heading up the First
Goalscorer and Anytime Scorer markets.
Chelsea's Didier Drogba finished at the Premier League's Top Scorer
with 29 goals. He's scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, including a
hat-trick against Wigan on the final day.
Frank Lampard has also been in terrific form lately. He's notched 5
goals in his last 5 games. He found the back of the net 22 times in
the Premier League this season.
Didier Drogba is 11/4 with Ladbrokes and William Hill to be 'First
Goalscorer' tomorrow's final. He's 8/13 at Boylesports and William Hill
to score at 'Anytime'.
Frank Lampard is 4/1 to be 'First Goalscorer' against Portsmouth
and Even Money with Victor Chandler and William Hill to score at
'Anytime'.
You can keep up-to-date on all the markets on offer for the FA Cup
Final here:
http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/england/fa-cup/final/
I'll be back next week with news of how you can make money from
EVERY match in this summer's World Cup. Plus I'll be taking a look
at the most reliable money making trends from the Premier League
this season.
Best wishes,
Matt Nesbitt
Football Betting Data
www.FootballBettingData.co.uk Password: *****
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