Chelsea's top trends - and Man Utd v Newcastle tonight

Monday 16th August 2010

In Football Betting Data today:

• Top trends - Chelsea continue to score for fun...
• A good start for our 'Top Scorers'...
• Man Utd v Newcastle tonight...

The new Premier League season kicked off at the weekend and it was
good to see some of our 'top money-making trends' continuing - with
Chelsea in particular picking up from where they left off last
season...

Look to cash-in on Chelsea's home record

Chelsea were the 2009/10 Premier League champions and the top-
scoring side in the division, and they set their stall out for
2010/11 with a 6-0 thumping of newly-promoted West Brom.

Chelsea 6 West Brom 0

In Friday's email I highlighted some of the standout stats from last
season, and these trends continued at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.
Chelsea won the game and scored 6 goals - last season they had the
best home record in the Premier League and 79% of their home games
went Over 2.5 Goals.

Last season's form book also showed that the majority of Chelsea's
home wins (12 out of 17) were by more than 1 goal, and 11 of them
were Won To Nil. On Saturday those trends continued too, with the
Chelsea -1 Handicap Result paying out at 8/13 and Chelsea To Win To
Nil paying out at 5/6 with the bookies.

• We didn't have any 'recommended bets' on the opening weekend's
  games, but I'll be keeping a close eye on Chelsea's home stats this
  season for ways to cash-in once there's some more form in the book.
  Chelsea's next home game is against Stoke on 28th August.

Also... Victor Chandler were offering an 'August Specials' bet on
how many Premier League goals Chelsea would score in their 3 games
in August. The 'Over 8' option was the 5/2 outsider with the bookies
- but Chelsea have already scored 6 goals, with Wigan and Stoke
still to come.

The members-only Football Betting Data website is now up-to-date
with all the stats from the first round of games, and you can also
view our archive of team data and head-to-head comparisons from last
season on the Previous Seasons page.

Log-in at: www.FootballBettingData.co.uk

With your Password: *****

There's another 37 rounds of games to go yet, but nevertheless the
opening weekend gave us some good news on our recommended Top Scorer
bets - as featured in our Top Scorers Guide which you can view again
online here: http://www.footballoffer.co.uk/pdf/fbd/topscorersguide.pdf

• A series of exclusive Football Betting Data reports can be
  found on the new 'Downloads' page at our website, each packed with
  ways you can cash-in on the Premier League.

Didier Drogba scored a hat-trick on the opening day, and the bookies
have cut him from 11/8 to as short as 1/5 to be Chelsea's Top Scorer
this season...

Darren Bent was the First Goalscorer in the Sunderland v Birmingham
game, and he has been cut from 4/6 to just 2/7 to be Sunderland's
Top Scorer in 2010/11...

And in the 'Midfielders Handicap' market, 16/1 each way shot Frank
Lampard got off the mark with a goal on Saturday. He was the only
player to score from the list of 20 players in the Stan James market
that we looked at in your Top Scorers Guide.

Tonight - 'Monday night football'...

This season sees the return of Monday night football to Sky Sports,
starting with Manchester United v Newcastle United this evening.
Let's take a look at the stats...

Note: Early-season games can be a minefield, and I won't be giving
you any 'recommended bets' until there's some fresh form in the book
- but these are the markets to look out for if you are thinking of
having a bet this evening.

Man Utd v Newcastle Utd

Tonight - kick off 8pm
Ref: C.Foy

Last season's Premier League runners-up Man Utd are the bookies' big
favourites to start with a home win at just 2/9 (1.22). Newcastle
are making their return to the top-flight after winning promotion
from The Championship last season. Newcastle are 16/1 underdogs
tonight, with the draw at 11/2.

• Man Utd won 16 of their 19 games at Old Trafford last season -
  an 84% win rate

• 84% of Man Utd home games went Over 2.5 Goals in 2009/10

Man Utd had an 84% strike rate for Over 2.5 Goals games last season
- there were 3 or more goals scored in 16 of their 19 home games.
It's no surprise that Man Utd scored the majority of those goals,
averaging 2.7 Goals For and 0.6 Goals Against.

For tonight's game the bookies make Over 2.5 Goals odds-on at 4/6
(1.67).

Man Utd beat Chelsea 3-1 at Wembley in the Community Shield just
over a week ago, and last season 11 of their 16 home wins (69%) were
also by more than 1 goal. That '-1 Handicap' bet is 4/6 (1.67) with
Blue Square tonight.

You can view the latest odds on all markets for Man Utd v Newcastle
here: odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk

The new season continues at the weekend with all 20 Premier League
teams in action again. I'll be looking at the standout stats and the
markets to look out for in the live TV games in your Friday email.

P.S.
If you haven't done so already remember to log-in to our site and go
to the 'Downloads' page to claim your exclusive Premier League
reports, including our Team-by-Team guides that contain proven
money-making trends for every team...

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk         Password: *****

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Football Betting Data

www.FootballBettingData.co.uk        Password: *****

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